UFC Vegas 95 goes down inside the promotion’s APEX venue this weekend (Sat., Aug. 10, 2024) with Heavyweights Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac rematching in the main event. Checkout all the odds right here ...
UFC Vegas 95 takes place this weekend (Sat., Aug. 10, 2024) from inside the familiar UFC APEX facility. After a solid non pay-per-view (PPV) card last week designed to please Abu Dhabi’s money men, we are being served what might be one of the worst UFC fight cards in history.
The main event is a Heavyweight slop fest between Marcin Tybura vs. Serghei Spivac. To paraphrase Ben Fowlkes, this isn’t really a main event, it’s just the fight that goes on last. It’s also a rematch of a fight that happened in 2020.
No one cared about it then ... and they won’t care about it now.
The card has been whittled down to 10 fights. Unfortunately one of the casualties — Javid Basharat vs. Chris Gutierrez — was the best fight on the card (details here). Gutierrez gets to stay on the card, though. He gets promotional newcomer, Quang Le. The main card also has Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal, Danny Barlow vs. Nikolay Veretennikov, Yara Santos vs. Chelsea Chandler and Toshiomi Kazama vs. Charalampos Grigoriou.
The “Prelims” are headlined by Karol Rosa vs. Pannie Kianzad. This section of the card also has GLORY veteran and knockout artist, Jhonata Diniz, taking on Karl Williams in his second UFC appearance.
Let’s checkout the money lines on “Tybura vs. Spivac” and all the other bouts on the card ...
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
UFC Vegas 95 Main Card Money Line Odds
Marcin Tybura (+120) vs. Serghei Spivac (-142)
Marcin Tybura was the victor when these two first met (on the undercard of UFC Norfolk in 2020). Spivac landed from range early, but couldn’t stop Tybura taking or dragging him down. Tybura was also able to land hard offense in confined spaces, either against the fence or when they were on the canvas.
Tybura is 7-2 since then. His only losses are to Alexander Volkov (via unanimous decision) and current interim Heavyweight champion, Tom Aspinall, via technical knockout. Last time out he choked out Tai Tuivasa (see it here).
Spivac is 6-2 since the fight. He lost to Aspinall via technical knockout, too (see his loss here). His other loss was to Ciryl Gane (also by technical knockout — see it here). His best win over that run is a first round submission of Derrick Lewis.
Tybura and Spivac have been two of the better Heavyweights in the promotion over the past four years and the fight makes sense from a rankings perspective (Tybura is No. 8 and Spivac is No. 9). However, considering their first fight wasn’t very close, there must be better options to test where each man is in their careers currently. Why couldn’t Tybura take on Jailton Almeida and Spivac have Jairzinho Rozenstruik?
Anyways, Spivac is the slight favorite here, despite being taken down and pounded throughout the first fight. That might be because he has youth on his side, which might now outweigh Tybura’s experience (he will turn 39 in November).
Statistically, Spivac has Tybura well beat in the grappling stats (4.56 takedowns per 15 mins vs. 1.43 and 64 percent takedown accuracy vs. 33 percent). However, Spivac was 0-1 in takedowns versus Tybura (who has an excellent 79 percent takedown defense) in their first fight. The only other fighters Spivac has struck out on when it comes to takedowns are Aspinall and Gane. He’s been able to take down the rest of his opponents at-will (he was 6-8 on takedowns against Lewis, who has a 58 percent takedown defense).
If Spivac can’t take down Tybura, he’ll have to out-strike him and stay on his feet himself. He was able to do this against Aleksei Oleinik, someone he did not want to spend time on the ground against. He earned a unanimous decision off him in 2021, landing 112 of 181 strikes, mostly from distance.
Tybura has decent striking defense, too, though (55 percent compared to Oleinik’s 44 percent).
I think this fight will look the same as the first one. Tybura is a decade older, yes, but he hasn’t looked that old in recent performances. And he should still have the intelligence and caution that allows him to slow fights down and force them to be fought on his terms.
I’m fading the public here. Tybura opened at -102, but that’s been pushed to plus odds thanks to the action on Spivac.
Prediction: Marcin Tybua via unanimous decision
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Damon Jackson (+180) vs. Chepe Marsical (-245)
Chepe Mariscal is perfect (3-0) in UFC thanks to a unanimous decision over Trevor Peek (as a short-notice replacement), a verbal tapout over Jack Jenkins (see that here) and a split decision over much-hyped Cage Warriors prospect, Morgan Charriere.
Damon Jackson has been up-and-down in his UFC career, but that’s thanks to being matched against extremely tough opposition. In his first UFC stint back in 2014, he was choked out by Yancy Medeiros, had a “No Contest” versus Rony Jason and then drew with Levan Makashvili. After that run he became a champion in Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) and was recalled to the big show in 2020.
Since rejoining UFC, he’s undefeated against guys not named Ilia Topuria, Dan Ige and Billy Quarantillo. The best of his six wins over that run were against Alexander Hernandez (in April) and Mirsad Bektic (back in 2020).
Jackson is the underdog here, but that won’t faze him — he’s won as a dog against Hernandez, Bektic and Pat Sabatini. Meanwhile, Mariscal’s -245 are the shortest odds he’s seen in his UFC career. He has been the underdog in his past two fights and was near even in his UFC debut.
I think this is a really hard fight to pick. On paper, Mariscal’s got the better striking and wrestling. However, Jackson has managed to make a career out of competing with, and beating, guys who we think should be better than him.
Jackson is one of the longest fighters Marsical has seen in UFC, so Jackson may be able to find some success at range. Whether Jackson is disciplined enough to keep the fight there is a big question, though. Jackson can be very reckless in his fights, feeling confident that his submissions can bail him out of trouble.
Mariscal’s never been submitted in his career, but he has been stopped with punches a few times. He’s a little wild, just like Jackson, and has paid the price for keeping his hands low. I’m not confident in him enough to take him at -245 odds. And I think Jackson has value as the underdog.
Pick: Damon Jackson via TKO, round three
Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Danny Barlow (-340) vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (+270)
Danny Barlow is a Contender Series product. He won his audition with a first round technical knockout and has since won his proper Octagon debut, too. In February, he finished Josh Quinlan late (see it here) to improve his undefeated record (8-0).
Nikolay Veretennikov is coming in on short notice for Uros Medic. He’s making his UFC debut at 34, having lost his Contender Series appearance (to Michael Morales) in 2021. The best win on his record is probably a first round technical knockout over Anthony Ivy in Fury FC.
Barlow is the big favorite here. And I agree with the oddsmakers on this one. Veretennikov is a surprise package, but Barlow looked very sharp in knocking down Quinlan four times before getting the eventual stoppage. He’ll have a five-inch reach advantage in this fight and I think he’ll just be too much on the feet for the veteran newcomer.
Pick: Danny Barlow via TKO, round two
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Chris Gutierrez vs. Quang Le
No odds have been released for this bout at time of writing.
Chris Gutierrez will likely be a big favorite against the debuting Quang Le. Gutierrez lost to Song Yadong last time out, but he should be able to navigate himself past the LFA product. Le is 8-0. He was gearing up for a Contender Series fight before being given the Gutierrez bout.
Pick: Chris Gutierrez via decision
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Yana Santos (-135) vs. Chelsea Chandler (+114)
Things just haven’t happened for Yana Santos since she came over to UFC from Invicta (where she was a Bantamweight champion). She’s on a three-fight losing streak with decisions dropped to Karol Rosa and Holly Holm and a technical knockout loss to Irene Aldana.
Santos has also been stopped by Aspen Ladd and Cris Cyborg (watch it here).
Chelsea Chandler is also an Invicta alum. She stopped Julija Stoliarenko in her UFC debut and dropped a unanimous decision to Norma Dumont. Last time out, she took a unanimous decision over Josiane Nunes.
Chandler fights with a lot more impact and intensity than Santos. Santos lands a lot of strikes, but they are rarely powerful enough to change the course of a fight (even when stacked together).
My pick is Chandler here because I think — while both ladies will land the same amount of strikes — hers will give Santos more problems. And I think Chandler should be able to score a couple of takedowns, like she did in the Nunes fight.
Prediction: Chelsea Chandler via unanimous decision
Photo by Todd Lussier/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Toshiomi Kazama (+180) vs. Charalampos Grigoriou (-218)
Toshiomi Kazama has had a rough time since signing for the UFC off of Road to UFC. He lost to Rinya Nakamura in his debut via knockout because of a straight left (see it here) and then he lost to Garrett Armfield via knockout due to a straight right (see it here). Those losses bring Kazama’s durability into question.
Charalampos Grigoriou scored a first round technical knockout on Contender Series. He lost his proper UFC debut to Chad Anheliger via unanimous decision.
Grigoriou will be giving up a couple of inches in reach here, but that shouldn’t be enough to dissuade him from leaving his mark in both the striking and wrestling departments. The Serra-Longo product should be too strong and athletic for Kazama and I think he will probably get an early stoppage on the ground.
Pick: Charalampos Girogoriou via technical knockout, round one
Photo by George Tewkesbury/PA Images via Getty Images
UFC Vegas 95 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Karol Rosa (-185) vs. Pannie Kianzad (+154)
Pannie Kianzad suffers from a lack of dynamism when she fights. She’s often quite plodding and rarely surprises her opponent with creativity or ferocity. She’s as tough as ever, though. Her toughness and durability have allowed her to outlast opponents and gut out decisions against fighters who have been on the decline in the recent years (Lina Lansberg, Alexis Davis, Sijara Eubanks, Bethe Correia). However, against more athletic opponents, who have more career ahead of them than she does, she falters — as we saw against Ketlen Vieira and Macy Chiasson.
Karol Rosa doesn’t have the upside of Vieira or Chiasson. And she has some of those same names on her list of wins. Both Rosa and Kianzad are known for their volume. However, Rosa’s output a level beyond Kianzad’s.
Her 6.34 significant strikes per minute leads the Bantamweight division (as does her striking differential). Kianzad is fourth with 4.86. Rosa has also landed the third most significant strikes of all active Women’s Bantamweights. Her 757 strikes has her behind Irena Aldana (959) and Raquel Pennington (1056). Kianzad is fifth with 602.
Rosa’s offense is more balanced than Kianzad’s. Kianzad is very much a head hunter, whereas Rosa will work the body and legs more. If these two are going to box it out for fifteen minutes then I’ll pick the more diverse striker here. Neither woman has the power to put the other one down, so this will come down to who lands the most and that will be Rosa.
Pick: Karol Rosa via unanimous decision
Jhonata Diniz (+180) vs. Karl Williams (-218)
Jhonata Diniz is a GLORY export who took a bit of time before landing a crushing left hook to beat Austen Lane in his UFC debut (see it here). Prior to that Diniz had won by first round knockout on Contender Series. Those wins have seen him get to undefeated (7-0) in MMA with all his bouts ending via technical knockout and only Lane making it out of the first round with him.
Karl Williams is 10-1 and he’s been a decision machine in his career, thanks to his smothering wrestling game. He’s won his first three UFC fights (against Justin Tafa, Chase Sherman and Lukasz Brzeski) via unanimous decision.
Williams is the best wrestler Diniz has ever faced and if he can’t finish this thing early he may get laid on for the lion’s share of 15 minutes.
Lane went 1-4 on takedowns versus Diniz. When he managed to get Diniz down he was able to keep him down, banking four and half minutes of control time in a fight that lasted just over seven minutes. Lane’s takedown accuracy is a woeful 20 percent. Williams’ takedown accuracy is 50 percent and he gets 4.75 takedowns per 15 minutes.
Williams is an interesting character. He had a chance to qualify for the Olympics in 2012 as a sprinter. He pivoted to wrestling to chase the Olympic dream, but found MMA instead.
Diniz has ungodly power, but I don’t think Williams is going to let us see that. Diniz looked great in the finish over Lane but was quite sluggish leading up to that. Williams is like someone he’s never faced before and I think this will be another feared striker who gets exposed for a lack of wrestling (see Robelis Despaigne).
Pick: Karl Williams via unanimous decision
Youssef Zalal (-395) vs. Jarno Errens (+310)
Youssef Zalal is one of the biggest favorite on the card. He opened as a -258 favorite and that has shortened by more than 12 percent. For PPV events, I analyze line movements and when this happens, it usually means a win for the fighter involved.
The public probably think this is a mismatch having just seen Zalal submit Billy Quarantillo (see it here). That UFC win came two years after his previous Octagon appearances, a draw over Da’Mon Blackshear. He had gone 3-3 in UFC prior to that, losing a split decision to Sean Woodson and a unanimous decision to Ilia Topuria.
Jarno Errens got his first UFC win in March, taking a unanimous decision over Steven Nguyen. Prior to that he lost decisions to Seung Woo Choi and William Gomis.
Errens is the more active striker, but his terrible takedown defense (28 percent) will likely be the story of this fight. Zalal’s takedowns looked much improved against Quarantillo. He was 2-2 on takedowns in that fight, which is impressive given Quarantillo’s 61 percent takedown defense.
Pick: Youssef Zalal via unanimous decision
Stephanie Luciano (-170) vs. Talita Alencar (+142)
These two fought to a draw on Contender Series. Stephanie Luciano is the favorite here and that’s probably because of her more eye catching fight style. Talita Alencar is more composed and patient, but she’s also nine years older than Luciano. My pick is the younger fighter, who also has a seven inch reach advantage.
Pick: Stephanie Luciano via unanimous decision
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
UFC Vegas 95 Prop Bets & Parlays
Here’s a couple of things that look interesting (on Betonline) for this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 95 card ...
Two-pick parlay: Karol Rosa to defeat Pannie Kianzad and Danny Barlow to defeat Nikolay Veretennikov (+233)
I think Rosa and Kianzad will give us a boxing match and there’s nothing Kianzad does that can stop Rosa peppering away with her division leading workrate. Rosa, the younger and more athletic fighter, should be able to score a pretty easy decision here against someone who will just stand in front of her for 15 minutes. Danny Barlow is my favorite favorite on the card. He has a super reach advantage over the short notice Veretennikov. Veretennikov is 34 and yet to make a splash anywhere beyond small regional shows.
Karl Williams vs. Jhonata Diniz - Over 2.5 rounds (-120)
Diniz’s win over Austen Lane hasn’t got me convinced that he’s the next Alex Pereira. He’s been given a super tough assignment here in the form of Williams. Williams is smart and will know how to get through this fight unscathed. He’s going to put Diniz on his back early and drag him through three rounds for a safe victory.
Damon Jackson to defeat Chepe Mariscal by KO/TKO/DQ (+1100)
I’ve been a little safe with the previous bets, so let’s swing for the fences here. Both Jackson and Mariscal can be very reckless in the cage and start swinging blindly with their chins in the air. Mariscal has had his lights turned out by Joanderson Brito and Steve Garcia, Jackson isn’t in their class, but he’s been known to surprise us before. For those odds, I’ll happily take a chance on him.
UFC Vegas 95 Poll Time
Which of the earlier props and parlays do you like the look of the most?
Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.
Remember that Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 95 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 5 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance (also ESPN+) at 7 p.m. ET.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 95: “Tybura vs. Spivac 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
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