Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 106 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., May 17, 2025) on ESPN+ from inside APEX in Las Vegas. UFC Vegas 106 features a welterweight main event between former title contender Gilbert Burns and fast-rising 170-pound sensation Michael Morales, a five-round showdown with possible title implications for late 2025 and beyond.
Before we dive into the main and co-main events, which include the light heavyweight collision between Paul Craig and Rodolfo Bellato, check out Andrew Richardson’s “X-Factor” breakdown for the rest of the UFC Vegas 106 main card by clicking here. Get all the latest “Burns vs, Morales” odds and betting props courtesy of FanDuel right here. For UFC Vegas 106 live results and play-by-play action for this weekend’s “Sin City” fight card click here.
170 lbs.: Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales
Gilbert “Durinho” Burns
Record: 22-8 | Age: 38 | Betting line: +575
Wins: 6 KO/TKO, 9 SUB, 7 DEC | Losses: 3 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 5 DEC
Height: 5’10” | Reach: 71” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.17 | Striking accuracy: 48%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.57 | Striking Defense: 52%
Takedown Average: 2.10 (37% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 53%
Current Ranking: No. 8 | Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Sean Brady
Michael Morales
Record: 17-5 | Age: 25 | Betting line: -850
Wins: 12 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6’0“ | Reach: 79” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 5.42 | Striking accuracy: 48%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.42 | Striking Defense: 52%
Takedown Average: 1.16 (41% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 92%
Current Ranking: No. 12 | Last fight: Technical knockout win over Neil Magny
Gilbert Burns turns 39 in July, the same month that marks his eleventh year under the UFC banner. Originally a lightweight, Burns eventually made the jump to 170 pounds to preserve his physicality and worked his way up to an unexpected title shot opposite Kamaru Usman, falling by way of technical knockout. That seems to be the story of the Brazilian’s career, which becomes less impressive under scrutiny. Burns has secured victories over some recognizable names like Tyron Woodley, Jorge Masvidal, and Stephen Thompson, but they were already old and washed by the time they got to “Durinho.” That’s probably why Burns is coming off three straight losses, because all three opponents were younger and in their competitive prime. Matchmakers did him no favors for the UFC Vegas 106 main event, pairing the grappling ace against an exciting young dynamo sporting double-digit knockouts.
“I have to be smart and follow the strategy we have planned because he’s a very athletic guy,” Burns told MMA Fighting. “I can see he’s very strong, very explosive, too lengthy for the division. It’s one of the longest reaches of the division. He’ll be very dangerous early. And I think he’s so athletic sometimes he doesn’t win with the technique but with reflexes and speed. We have to kind of drown him to end with this explosiveness, speed and athleticism. We’ll use all that with our movement, takedowns, control, good defense and attacks. That’s what I plan to do. I think this is the path to victory against him. I’ll have to use all my experience to beat this guy.”
Michael Morales will have a staggering eight-inch reach advantage.
“I believe I’m two wins away from the mix,” Burns continued. “I haven’t lost to jabronis, I lost to Kamaru, a champion. I lost to Chimaev, who’s fighting for the belt. I lost to Belal, who became champion. I lost to Jack, who became champion. To Sean Brady, who’s the No. 1 contender now. I fight everybody, so I think the UFC respects that, too. I’m on the path. I have to get back to the winning track, to believe on the adjusts I’m making. It’s not far. I believe that a good win over Morales puts me back in the game. One more big victory, it’s going to be like a movie, brother. Imagine that, Durinho champion, that’s a movie. It’s on me to believe and turn this movie into reality. Let’s work, let’s do our best to make this happen.”
Morales, still just 25 years old, blasted his way into the promotion with a unanimous decision victory over Nikolay Veretennikov as part of Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in Sept. 21 and from there, he was off to the races. The Ecuadorian has racked up five straight wins under the UFC banner with three knockout finishes, disposing of some well-traveled veterans like Max Griffin and Neil Magny along the way. Morales landed four takedowns in his “Contender Series” win but just one in the five fights that followed and I can’t imagine he’ll be in any big hurry to get this fight to the floor against a jiu-jitsu ace like Burns, particularly when he holds such a distinct advantage on the feet. The big issue for Morales is his lack of experience. While it’s true that Burns has historically come up short in the big spot, he continues to log some serious miles against the best fighters in the division. This fight may come down to fifth-round cardio — and whether or not Morales can stop Burns from grinding out point-stealing takedowns.
“Ever since I started fighting, I was facing veterans of the sport, people who were older than me,” Morales told UFC.com. “I’ve been working hard because I know that everyone wants to rip my head off, so I know I have a target on my back. I’m training harder because of that. I’m going to show my best, my skills. One way to respect a fighter is actually finishing him, so that’s what I’m looking for. I have a hard fight coming up; I have to give my all. I know it’s going to be hard against an opponent like Gilbert. This is an opportunity I’ve earned because of the work I’ve been doing in the UFC. I’ve been doing a pretty good job, so now I’m just going to be focused on the victory and showcasing who Michael Morales is.”
The finish over Magny earned Morales his first post-fight performance bonus.
“The unbeaten is not something that add pressure or scares me,” Morales said during the UFC Vegas 106 media day. “Quite the opposite, it motivates me to work harder. You never know what tomorrow brings in the cage. Nothing is set. You have to win the fight by fighting, Whoever prepares well will fight well. This is a matter of working hard. Gilbert is a fighter who’s coming from defeat, so he’s a lion that’s there waiting for his opportunity, and he’s not planning on wasting it. I’m the same. We’re both hungry for the win. He’s maybe fighting so he doesn’t get cut from the company, and me because I want to advance in the rankings and keep moving towards the belt. We all need this opportunity.”
Burns is old but still dangerous and the fact that Morales can be wild may play to the Brazilian’s strengths. I just think there is too much wear-and-tear on the former title challenger’s body. After a hot start, look for Burns to start absorbing damage to the point where it crumbles him midway through the fight.
Prediction: Morales def. Burns by technical knockout
205 lbs.: Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato
Paul “Bearjew” Craig
Record: 17-9-1 | Age: 37 | Betting line: +400
Wins: 4 KO/TKO, 13 SUB, 0 DEC | Losses: 5 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 6’3“ | Reach: 76” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.52 | Striking accuracy: 44%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 3.03 | Striking Defense: 43%
Takedown Average: 1.52 (20% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 37%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Bo Nickal
Rodolfo “Trator” Bellato
Record: 12-2-1 | Age: 29 | Betting line: -535
Wins: 7 KO/TKO, 4 SUB, 1 DEC | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 6’3“ | Reach: 77” | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 6.28 | Striking accuracy: 62%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 6.31 | Striking Defense: 46%
Takedown Average: 1.06 (30% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 100%
Current Ranking: Unranked | Last fight: Majority draw against Jimmy Crute
Paul Craig is in big trouble and likely needs a win here to stay employed. “Bearjew” made the drop down to 185 pounds after getting whooped in back-to-back fights by Volkan Oezdemir and Johnny Walker, then proceeded to lose three out of four as a middleweight, sending the 37 year-old Scot back to light heavyweight. Craig doesn’t have much to offer on his feet, scoring just four knockouts in 27 professional fights, but he’s a dangerous grappler with double-digit submission wins and a surprise victory over current 205-pound champion, Magomed Ankalaev. Unfortunately, Craig — like most high-level grapplers with subpar striking— doesn’t have a Plan B when the ground game fails to materialize, which is why Bo Nickal was able to outwork him at UFC 309 in New York. To make matters worse, “Bearjew” is back at light heavyweight against an opponent of equal size and strength.
“That move to middleweight at the time was a great idea, and after that victory against Andre Muniz in London, which was incredible, I didn’t really get a chance to get running at middleweight,” Craig told MMA Junkie. “That’s because I had three high-level middleweights in front of me. I fought Caio Borralho, Brendan Allen and Bo Nickal. They’re no slouches in this game. To lose to them, it’s not an embarrassment. It’s hard to pick yourself up from three losses because this sport is about entertaining. If you’re not entertaining and you’re not winning, then the UFC have no right to keep you. And I know that myself.”
Craig has been finished in seven of his nine losses.
“I’m not under any illusion that a loss on Saturday night would potentially result in me not having a UFC contract on Monday morning,” Craig continued. “That, for me, is fire. That’s what I need. I do my best work when my back’s against the wall. That’s why this fight is ideal for me. When you’ve got someone like Ankalaev with the title, and there’s only one loss on his record, I’m excited to see what I can do with a few fights in the next few months. I think there’s still a few, ‘Oh my God’ moments left for me in this sport. So I’m excited to see what I can do back at light heavyweight.”
Rodolfo Bellato blew his first chance to become a UFC fighter when Vitor Petrino finished him on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in late 2022, the second time he’s been stopped by the “Merciless” power puncher. Two wins on the regional circuit earned Bellato a second audition on “Contender Series” and “Trator” delivered with a second-round knockout over Murtaza Talha Ali. The Brazilian followed that up with his destruction of Ihor Potieria at UFC Austin, then battled Aussie “Brute” Jimmy Crute to a draw at UFC 312. There’s not a lot of subtlety or nuance to Bellato’s game, he essentially just walks forward and unleashes hell until someone drops. That might be what Craig is counting on, because that sort of offense comes at the expense of defense and would afford “Bearjew” the opportunity to steal a submission. I’m just not sure the fight will last long enough for that to happen.
“The fight starts standing. It starts on our feet, and there’s a whole process for him to be able to take me down,” Bellato told MMA Junkie. I know he’s got submission wins and he’s a jiu-jitsu guy, but you can’t forget that I’m also a black belt, so it’s not going to be that easy for him, either. It’s a great matchup for me. We can create a good strategy around him, a good game plan. He’s got a great name, so it’s all good for me. He was ranked No. 8 in this division. He’s a guy that’s got a big name, so I’m so sure this is a fight that’s going to get me closer to the rankings and is going to get my name out there, too.”
Bellato and Craig are about even when it comes to height and reach.
“The UFC has no easy fights,” Bellato told Sherdog.com. “He’s fought multiple tough opponents and scored several bonuses. He, of course, deserves all my respect. His game is somewhat limited, but he’s dangerous in those areas. My team and I have been able to analyze him. We saw multiple qualities and flaws during his fights. We have a great strategy to beat him without leaving any doubt. He’s super tough, but we have the perfect strategy to beat him. I plan to remain undefeated in the UFC. With a good win, hopefully I can get into the Top 15 this year.”
Considering Bellato’s wild offense, I could easily see him charging headfirst into a submission, or drop Craig and get a limb caught trying to finish the fight. The more likely scenario has “Bearjew” — eight years older than Bellato at 37 — wilting under the first-round power of the Brazilian’s blitzkrieg.
Prediction: Bellato def. Craig by technical knockout
Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 106 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.
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LIVE! Stream UFC Vegas 106 On ESPN+
WELTERWEIGHT CROSSROADS! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to is intimate APEX venue in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sat., May 17, 2025, with UFC Vegas 106. Former 170-pound title challenger, Gilbert Burns, collides with undefeated up-and-coming phenom, Michael Morales, in a blistering main event scheduled for five rounds. In UFC Vegas 106’s co-main event, battle-hardened Paul Craig locks horns with surging Light Heavyweight, Rodolfo Bellato, setting the stage for an explosive showdown in the 205-pound division.
Don’t miss a single second of face-punching action!