UFC Vegas 106 Betting Preview: Top Props, Parlays, and Selections for Burns vs. Morales

UFC Vegas 106 is live this weekend (Sat., May 17, 2025), featuring Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales in the main event. Checkout the odds for that fight (and much more) right here.

UFC Vegas 106 happens this weekend (Sat., May 17, 2025) at the familiar UFC APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. This is the first time UFC has been back to the APEX in more than five weeks. The ESPN+-streamed main event has Gilbert Burns vs. Michael Morales in the main event, with the undefeated Morales looking to climb the ladder toward new Welterweight champion, Jack Della Maddalena.

The co-main event is Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato. Bellato is coming off a draw with Jim Crute, while Craig is coming off a snore with Bo Nickal.

Rounding out the main card is Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos, Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Dustin Stoltzfus and Julian Erosa vs. Melquizael Costa.

The “Prelims” undercard is headlined by Gabe Green vs. Matheus Camilo. That portion of the event also has Jared Gordon vs. Thiago Moises and Tecia Pennington vs. Luana Pinheiro.

Let’s checkout the money lines on “Burns vs. Morales” and all the other bouts on the card ...

UFC Vegas 106 Main Card Money Line Odds

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Gilbert Burns (+500) vs. Michael Morales (-850)

Burns is now firmly in the gatekeeper chapter of his career. And he’s a massive underdog against the rising, and undefeated, Morales.

Burns is on a three-fight losing skid against a Murderer’s Row of Welterweights. In those fights, he dropped decisions to Sean Brady and Belal Muhammad and was finished by new champ Jack Della Maddalena (see that here).

His only wins since he was finished by Kamaru Usman in a 2021 title fight (see that here) are against Stephen Thompson, Neil Magny and Jorge Masvidal.

Morales, for comparison, beat-up Neil Magny last August, finishing him by first round ground-and-pound. Before that he took a unanimous decision over Jake Matthews.

This fight is a massive step up for the 25-year-old.

Morales striking stats read as elite, though they have been earned against less than elite opposition. He lands 5.99 significant strikes a minute and absorbs 3.41 for a great significant striking differential of 2.58. That leads the Welterweight division. Morales is also second in the division, behind Carlos Prates, for knockdowns per 15 minutes with 1.2. Only Morales, Prates and Della Maddalena average over one knockdown per 15 minutes.

Burns didn’t come up as a striker, but he’s proved himself to be very tough on the feet (and tough to put away).

I don’t think this fight is as lopsided as the odds suggest. There really is a massive gulf in quality between Magny and Burns. And Morales is very young and he might stumble in his first main event.

This could end up like what happened when Yair Rodriguez rose through the ranks and was then battered by Frankie Edgar.

Morales size advantage over Burns is what’s making me second guess the underdog, though. Morales will have a massive eight inch reach advantage in this fight.

If Morales’ striking is as good as his numbers suggest he is (despite not facing anyone who is exceptional) then that reach should terrorize Burns.

The oddsmakers are showing respect for Burns’ durability and veteran savvy with the round total. That’s set at 3.5. The over is -105 and the under is -125 right now. That’s very hard to pick. If they had disrespected Burns with a 1.5 or even a 2.5 total I would have been all in on the over. 3.5 is right on the line, though. I think it probably goes over, but I won’t bet that because there is a chance that Morales is special and he runs through the 38 year-old Burns.

Betonline have a really interesting same game parlay for this fight. They are offering the Morales moneyline, KO/TKO/DQ method of victory and under 4.5 rounds for -130.

That’s tempting, but I’m going to go for a more basic parlay for my best bet. I like Morales to win and Over 2.5 rounds. This is my believing that Morales is very good, but also that Burns is still very tough.

Best bet: Michael Morales to Win and Over 2.5 rounds (-145)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Rodolfo Bellato (-375) vs. Paul Craig (+400)

Just in case you forgot we were in the UFC APEX we have this as the co-main event.

Bellato fought to a draw with Jimmy Crute at UFC 312 in February. The draw came after Bellato was almost finished in the first round, giving Crute the 10-8 round before Bellato regrouped and won the second and third rounds (mostly due to his leg kicks).

Prior to that fight, Bellato won his UFC debut with a ground-and-pound win over Ihor Potieria (see it here).

Craig will make his 20th walk to the Octagon this weekend. He heads into Saturday with a 9-9-1 UFC record. He’s coming off a very boring decision loss to Bo Nickal. Before that, he was battered by Caio Borralho and submitted by Brendan Allen (see it here).

Initially, it felt like Craig was here for a fun time, not a long time. But, time has now dragged on and the 37-year-old’s lack of striking remains a serious liability in any fight he could take in the division.

Craig is a massive underdog against Bellato. That’s because of Bellato’s punching power and the long-standing belief that Craig will go down if someone can catch him on the chin.

The round total of 1.5 also reflects that with the under currently available at -135.

Bellato via (technical) knockout also has very short odds at -185.

I don’t see a reason to disagree with Vegas on all this. To try and get a little value, though, I’ll take Bellato to get that finish in the first round. He started slow against Crute and was nearly finished, so he should be motivated to come out quick for this one. I’ll take Bellato to win in the first, regardless of method, since I think a club-and-sub might be on the card.

Best bet: Rodolfo Bellato to win in Round 1 (+140)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Sodiq Yusuff (+105) vs. Mairon Santos (-125)

Yusuff has been on the sidelines for a year. The last time we saw him we was stopped by Diego Lopes (see it here). And before that he lost a decision to Edson Barbosa in a “Fight of the Night.” Yusuff is now 6-3 in UFC with that third loss being a decision to Arnold Allen. He’s not beaten anyone who would ever make it close to the Top 15 at Featherweight.

Santos benefitted from some awful scorecards to “win” a split decision over Francis Marshall in March. That was his first fight since winning TUF with a technical knockout over Kaan Ofli. He’s 15-1 on his career with his lone loss being to the recently-retired Dan Argueta.

I guess UFC wants to see how good Santos is (and whether Yusuff is someone they want to keep around).

This is likely to be a pure kickboxing match with neither man showing much interest in wrestling in their UFC careers to date.

Santos looked timid in his win over Marshall. His knockout of Ofli might say more about Ofli than him.

I think the veteran is probably skilled enough to avoid the big counter Santos used to end Ofli. I’m not anticipating a very entertaining fight, though.

Best bet: Sodiq Yussuf moneyline (+105)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Dustin Stoltzfus (+320) vs. Nursulton Ruziboev (-320)

Ruziboev was given a gimme in his UFC Middleweight debut in February. He breezed past regional-level fighter Eric McConico with a second round knockout. That was his first fight since losing a decision to Joaquin Buckley.

Stoltzfus, meanwhile, KO’d Marc-Andre Barriault in November to earn a Performance of the Night (see it here). He’s now 3-5 in UFC. Four of his losses have been because of stoppages, including a spinning elbow from Brunno Ferreira (see it here) and a front kick from Abus Magomedov (see it here).

Stoltzfus has had a tough schedule in UFC and that hasn’t changed with this match-up. Ruziboev is a giant at Middleweight, which makes the fact he fought at Welterweight even more bizarre. Ruziboev also has a lot of power in his striking (he knocked out Sedriques Dumas and Brunno Ferreira).

There is a path to victory for Stoltzfus, though. Buckley was able to take the lanky Ruziboev down four times on four attempts. Stoltzfus lands 2.3 takedowns per 15 minutes and is okay when it comes to takedown accuracy (41 percent). I worry he might take too many shots on the way in against Ruziboev, though (maybe a knee up the middle).

The round total is set at 1.5 rounds, with Vegas thinking Ruziboev is going to be able to get Stoltzfus out of there quickly. I disagree with that, though.

I think Stoltzfus will start well in this fight, but Ruziboev is going to catch him too many times. I can see those strikes adding up and leading to yet another stoppage loss for Stoltzfus. I just don’t think it happens in less than 1.5 rounds.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-110)

Photo credit should read Ismael Rosas/ Pixelnews/Future Publishing via Getty Images

Julian Erosa (+155) vs. Melquizael Costa (-185)

Now, this is a fun fight.

Costa seems to have figured it out since his technical knockout loss to Steve Garcia (see it here) in 2023. He’s won three straight since then, including a submission over Andre Fili. Last time out he looked well rounded and tactically sound against Christian Rodriguez for the unanimous decision win.

We saw Erosa about a month ago when he torched Darren Elkins for a first round technical knockout (see it here). Before that, Erosa submitted Christian Rodriguez (see it here) and Ricardo Ramos (see it here).

This is great match-making with two guys who are both on the rise, albeit at different stages of their careers.

Both these guys are wizards on the ground, so we could be in for some very entertaining scrambles and submission attempts. Erosa has forteen submission wins in his career and he’s never lost by submission. Costa has eight submissions and he’s been tapped out twice. Though, one of those was in his UFC debut to Thiago Moises when he fought up a weight division.

Both men are heavy handed, too, combining for 19 (technical) knockout wins. Both Erosa and Costa mostly earn technical knockout wins by accumulation. Neither has one shot clean knockout power.

I like the run Erosa has been on and I think he’s a live dog in this fight. He’s quite bigger than Costa and he’s more of a finisher, too. I don’t like that he’s seven years old than Costa, but I wouldn’t count him out on that alone.

The round total for this one is 2.5. At first I felt that was high when considering just how many finishes these guys get. However, I think their grappling might cancel each other out on the ground and we might see this go the distance. Costa also has really good defense, so I don’t think Erosa will be able to repeat what he just did to Elkins.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (+120)

UFC Vegas 106 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Gabe Green (+185) vs. Matheus Camilo (-225)

Feels like we could save ourselves some time and have this fight over on TUF or LFA.

We haven’t seen Green since Bryan Battle demolished him in less than 15 seconds (see that brutal knockout here). That was in May 2023. Before that loss he was out for a year, after losing a decision to Ian Machado Garry.

Camilo, on the other hand, is a rare UFC signee who has not been on Contender Series, Road to UFC nor TUF. He’s coming out of Brazil with a 9-2 record.

Camilo earned his spot in UFC by defeating that guy who asked Dana for a fight at a press conference.

I think UFC signed Camilo to make a point and Green is just a live body to throw at him. That being said, we don’t really know how good Camilo is. I think this is a good fight to avoid altogether.

I gotta make a pick, though. I’ll take the under. If Green is shot, Camilo might walk through him. But, if Camilo is not cut out for this level, then Green might be able to show us that.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-160)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Jared Gordon (-118) vs. Thiago Moises (-102)

Gordon dropped a split decision to Nasrat Haqparast in Saudi Arabia last year. Before that, he took out Mark Madsen with a first round technical knockout (see it here). Gordon is now 8-6 in UFC. Though, one of those losses is his famous defeat to Paddy Pimblett (which many people think he should have won). I doubt Gordon wants that Pimblett rematch now, though.

Moises, meanwhile, put in a workman-like performance to get past Trey Ogden in January. That followed a decision loss to L’udovit Klein.

This is a very close fight that is likely headed for a decision. Gordon’s high volume striking could cause similar problems to what Klein’s did to Moises. Moises is very hesitant to throw hands, with just 2.5 signifcant strikes landed per minute (compared to Gordon’s above average 5.65). Moises does have good leg kicks, though. Moises will try and pressure Gordon against the fence and drag him down so he can look for submissions.

I think Gordon’s experience and toughness might help him avoid a lot of that. I don’t like that Gordon is 36 and six years older than Moises, but I think he gets through this fight with a razor thin decision.

Best bet: Jared Gordon moneyline (-118)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Yadier del Valle (-500) vs. Connor Matthews (+350)

del Valle won a decision on Contender Series to move to 8-0 as a professional. The bulk of his career has been spent with Fury FC.

Matthews is also a Contender Series alum. He was 1-1 on that feeder program before being signed to the big show. In proper UFC action he’s been finished by Dennis Buzukja and Jose Delgado (see it here).

Seems like UFC likes feeding Matthews to the wolves. He’s looked very hittable in UFC thus far. He has absorbed an absurd 6.25 sig. strikes per-minute. del Valle has a good shot at hurting him and finishing him inside the distance.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+105)

Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images

Luana Santos (-175) vs. Tainara Lisboa (+145)

Santos had her three-fight win streak, to start her UFC career, snapped in Australia last August. That’s when she dropped a unanimous decision to Casey O’Neill. Before that, she submitted Mariya Agapova and TKO’d Juliana Miller.

Tainara Lisboa is 2-0 to start her UFC career with wins over Ravena Oliveira and Jessica-Rose Clark (by submission). Her last fight was in October, 2023, though.

Lisboa is 34. Santos is just 25.

Lisboa has a grapple focused game. Santos has good takedown defense, though. Santos should be able to control this fight on the feet and cruise to a decision over the older and less active Lisboa.

Best bet: Luana Santos moneyline (-175)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Elise Reed (+425) vs. Denise Gomes (-650)

Gomes looked great when she took a unanimous decision over Karolina Kowalkiewicz in Nov. 2024. However, Kowalkiewicz’s decline may have played a big role in that. That gave Gomes a 4-2 UFC record, which includes a 20-second technical knockout over Yazmin Jauregui (see it here) and a technical knockout over Bruna Brasil. Her only losses are to volume strikers Angela Hill and Loma Lookboonmee.

Reed, on the other hand, is 4-4 in UFC. She dominated a 41 year-old Jessica Penne in her last fight. Before that she was submitted by Lupita Godinez. She’s also been finished by Lookboonmee, Sam Hughes and Sijara Eubanks.

With Reed’s durability in question, you have to fancy Gomes, who has above average power and ferocity in this division.

Reed might try and stand with Gomes and because of that I think the under is in play.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+145)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Hyun Sung Park (-180) vs. Carlos Hernandez (+150)

Sung Park is still perfect (9-0) as a professional. Last time out he earned a bonus with a liver shot technical knockout over Shannon Ross. That was all the way back in 2023, though. Since then he’s been out with a knee injury.

In the opposite corner, Hernandez won a split decision over Nyamjargal Tumendemberel in Nov. 2024. Prior to that, he had losses to Rei Tsuruya and Tatsuro Taira (see that TKO here).

Park, who walked through his Road to UFC season, looked like a very good prospect in 2023. If this fight with Hernandez was happening a six months after the Ross fight I’d expect him to steam roll Hernandez. He might still do that, but the injury and the lay-off is significant.

Park is the most dangerous fighter in this match-up. He has just one decision on his record. Hernandez is rare in that he’s in UFC despite having no (technical) knockout stoppage wins.

Park might look a little rusty, but his talent should get him through this one.

Best bet: Hyun Sung Park moneyline (-180)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Tecia Pennington (-330) vs. Luana Pinheiro (+255)

Seventeen-fight UFC vet Tecia Pennington heads to the APEX after a unanimous decision over Carla Esparza in October. Esparza would retire after losing, despite a decent showing. For Pennington that was her first win since a decision over Angela Hill in 2021. In the time in between she lost split decisions to Mackenzie Dern and Tabatha Ricci.

Pinheiro, meanwhile, is on a three-fight losing streak. Last time out she lost a decision to GIllian Robertson. Before that she lost by submission to Angela Hill (see it here) and by spinning wheel kick to Amanda Ribas (see it here). Her last UFC win was a split decision over Michelle Waterson-Gomez in 2023.

I think the striking differential is the telling stat in this match-up. Pinheiro has landed 146 significant strikes in her last three decisions. Pennington landed 144 in just her fight with Hill. Despite being in the last leg of her career Pennington remains very busy on the feet, landing over 75 significant strikes in her last three fights.

I just don’t think Pinheiro (who absorbs more significant strikes a minute than she lands) will keep up.

Best bet: Tecia Pennington moneyline (-330)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

UFC Vegas 106 Long Shots

Here’s a couple of things that look interesting (on Betonline) for this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 106 card ...

Bellato vs. Craig: Fight to End in the 1st 60 seconds of Round 1 (+700)

I said I think Bellato will want to start quickly in this fight. Maybe he starts really quickly? Craig’s chin is not good and it’s been punished a lot over the years. I think we’re starting to see the end of his UFC career. Bellato might hurry that along with a blistering quick KO on Saturday night.

Two-fight parlay: Stoltzfus vs. Ruziboev Under 1.5 rounds; Reed vs. Gomes Under 2.5 rounds (+349)

I think there will be finishes in these fights, too. Ruziboev is a dangerous striker and he’s been giving a very hittable opponent here. Gomes is a fun fighter who looks for the finish and Reed’s durability isn’t great.

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Mairon Santos: Point to be deducted (+2000)

Santos already has the scorecard robbery under his belt. I think he should look to continue his heel trajectory by flat out cheating any way he can. Maybe he lands repeated eye pokes and a referee decides to make a point (by taking a point).

Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.

Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 106 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” undercard bouts at 4 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN+ at 7 p.m. ET.

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 106 news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here.

{Consultez les {combats à venir avec le calendrier de l'UFC|combats à venir avec le calendrier de l'UFC}|N'oubliez pas de consulter les {événements à venir avec le calendrier de l'UFC.|événements à venir avec le calendrier de l'UFC}|Découvrez les futurs affrontements et planifiez vos paris avec le calendrier de l'UFC.|Restez à jour sur tous les combats: jetez un œil au calendrier de l'UFC.|Ne manquez aucun combat: parcourez le calendrier de l'UFC pour les dernières mises à jour.|Pour les fans inconditionnels de l'UFC: vérifiez régulièrement notre calendrier pour ne rien rater.|Préparez vos pronostics UFC en consultant les {prochains événements sur notre calendrier de l'UFC.|prochains événements sur notre calendrier de l'UFC.}}