UFC Abu Dhabi goes down in the desert this weekend (Sat., August 3, 2024) with Bantamweight contenders Cory Sandhagen and Umar Nurmagomedov in the main event. Checkout all the odds right here ...
UFC Abu Dhabi on ABC takes place this weekend (Sat., Aug. 3, 2024) from inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The event is stacked compared to most UFC non PPV events. If you read Sports Politika by Karim Zidan, you know that UFC is in a tricky spot between UAE and Saudi Arabia. And that each time they please one of those nations, they — as a result — risk displeasing the other. This very good Abu Dhabi card might be in response to UFC’s attempt to make nice after its debut in Riyadh earlier this year (and the forthcoming Saudi sponsored Sphere event).
Whatever the reasoning behind it, this weekend we’re treated to a fantastic card that we don’t need to stay up late for (if you are on United States eastern time like me). The main event sees Bantamweight contenders Cory Sandhagen and Umar Nurmagomedov fight it out for a title shot against the winner of Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili, who fight at said Sphere event. The co-main event features the curiosity that is Shara Magomedov. He’s taking on Michal Oleksiejczuk in the Welterweight division. The co-main was supposed to be Nick Diaz vs. Vicente Luque, that was until perhaps Diaz found out how long the flight would be.
Also on the main card, we’ve got Marlon Vera versus former Flyweight champ Deiveson Figueiredo, Tony Ferguson vs. Michael Chiesa, Mackenzie Dern vs. Loopy Godinez and Joel Alvarez vs. Elves Brener.
The “Prelims” are headlined by Guram Kutateladze vs. Jordan Vucenic. The undercard also has Shamil Gaziev vs. Don’Tale Mayes and Alonzo Menifield vs. Azamat Murzakanov.
Let’s checkout the moneylines on “Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov” and all the other bouts on the card ...
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
UFC Abu Dhabi Main Card Money Line Odds
Cory Sandhagen (+245) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (-305)
This is a very exciting match-up and initially I was a little surprised to see the odds so far apart. However, they started to make sense the more I studied the match-up.
Cory Sandhagen is Bantamweight’s nearly-man in that every time he has a bit of momentum driving him to a title shot he gets pegged back. He was 5-0 to start his UFC career before Aljamain Sterling tapped him in the first round and leapfrogged him for a UFC title shot. He destroyed Marlon Moraes via wheel kick (see that here) and obliterated Frankie Edgar with a flying knee (see that here) but then lost a close split decision to T.J. Dillashaw, who then leapfrogged him for a title shot. After a unanimous decision loss to Petr Yan, Sandhagen has regrouped and gone on a three fight winning streak with victories over Song Yadong, Marlon Vera and Rob Font.
So, will this be the time Sandhagen gets over the hump and scores the win that equals a shot at gold? Or will this be like all the other times, where a disappointing defeat leads to his opponent getting that shot and him being left on the outside looking in, again?
There’s been no rocky road for Umar Nurmagomedov. Khabib’s cousin is 17-0 with five of those wins coming in the UFC. He’s looked dominant, though that’s against opposition far below Sandhagen (or anyone Sandhagen has fought in the last four years). Nurmagomedov’s notable wins in the Octagon include a choke against Brian Kelleher in 2022 (see it here) and a KO against Raoni Barcelos in 2023 (see it here).
The bookies clearly believe Nurmagomedov shouldn’t be judged for his past opponents and that he is more than capable of getting a win over Sandhagen and setting himself up for a title shot. The public are in slight agreement with this, too. Nurmagomedov’s opening line was -278 and that’s now shortened by around 3 percent. Sandhagen opened at +225 and that seems set to rise all week. That’s great news if you like the underdog here.
It’s hard to count Sandhagen out of a fight against someone who is not elite at 135 lbs. We’ve simply never seen Sandhagen struggle against someone who is not a bona fide contender. For that reason this will be a great test (and measuring stick) for Nurmagomedov.
I personally think Nurmagomedov will be able to pass the test, though.
We all know that Nurmagomedov is going to be hunting for takedowns in this fight. Overall, Sandhagen’s takedown defense is good at 64 percent. However, that number is inflated by his bout with Dillashaw where he defended 17 of 19 takedowns. Nurmagomedov’s 4.51 takedowns per 15 minutes is higher than anything he’s ever seen before, though. Nurmagomedov was recently able to go 3 for 4 on takedowns against Nate Maness, who has a takedown defence of 80 percent.
It’s obvious that Sandhagen’s best chance for a win is on the feet in this match-up, or in mid-air with a jumping knee as Nurmagomedov is going for a takedown. Sandhagen will have a one inch reach advantage. However, his striking stats don’t blow away Nurmagomedov’s own stats. Sandhagen lands 5.33 sig. strikes per minute with a 44 percent accuracy. Nurmagomedov lands 4.75 sig. strikes with a 69 percent accuracy (albeit mostly when on the ground). And Nurmagomedov has a 76 percent striking defense (which leads the division) and is far higher than Sandhagen’s 58 percent.
Basically, I don’t see a path to victory for Sandhagen here. And his best shots, high octane knee and kick attacks, would be terrible ideas in this fight, with Nurmagomedov being more than capable of catching him mid-flight and dumping him on the ground.
Sadly for the Sandman I think this will be another case of him being skipped over for a title shot at Bantamweight.
Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov via submission (round 3).
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Shara Magomedov (-238) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (+195)
We’re still waiting to see how good Shara Magomedov might be. I definitely don’t think he’s a potential fraud, though, despite him looking a little underwhelming in his early UFC fights. I think the expectations put on him have been a little unfair and that’s part of the reason why there are lingering questions over his ceiling.
This is a match-up designed to brush away those concerns, though.
Michal Oleksiejczuk heads to Abu Dhabi after losses to dynamic strikers Kevin Holland and Michel Perreira. Both of those guys were able to get Oleksiejczuk out of there with first round submissions. Perreira choked him out at UFC 299 (see it here) and Holland wrecked his arm at UFC 302 (see it here). Those were the fifth and sixth submissions losses of his career (75 percent of his career losses are submissions).
Oleksiejczuk has been sturdier on the feet, with only one TKO loss on his record (in 2014 during his time on the Polish circuit).
Oleksiejczuk will be willing striker against Magomedov and that’s why he has such long odds in this fight. Magomedov’s muay thai has looked very dangerous in his first two UFC bouts, but he hasn’t looked totally composed or comfortable enough under the bright lights yet. I think as the UFC routine becomes more regular to him we’ll see more free flowing offense and better results, starting this Saturday.
Oleksiejczuk is a good striker, but I think Magomedov’s activity and creativity will garner similar results to what Perreira had against Oleksiejczuk (almost 75 percent conversion on significant strikes). If that happens, I think Olekziejczuk will, at best, get too hurt to implement his own striking game or, at worst, be dropped for his second career TKO loss.
Pick: Shara Magomedov via TKO, round 3.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Marlon Vera (+114) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (-135)
This is a really tough bout to call.
Former UFC Flyweight champ Deiveson Figueiredo debuted at Bantamweight with a unanimous decision over Rob Font in 2023 and then, at UFC 300 this year, he submitted Cody Garbrandt (see it here). Garbrandt is a much diminished force, but the win over Font demonstrates, in my opinion, that Figgy can compete at 135 pounds.
Marlon Vera is a little like Cory Sandhagen in that he takes one step forwards and two steps back. He’s a ten year UFC vet, but he’s only reached elite status at Bantamweight in the past couple of years. In 2021 and 2022 he went on a winning streak that included victories over Font, Frankie Edgar and Dominick Cruz to separate him from the pack. He was then pegged back by a Cory Sandhagen split decision in 2023.
Later that year he beat Pedro Munhoz to earn a title shot against O’Malley (someone he TKO’d earlier in their careers — see it here). Against O’Malley at UFC 299, Vera lost a unanimous decision due to being stifled by O’Malley’s range fighting.
Vera will have some size over Figueiredo, but not a ton. He’s three inches taller and has two inches of reach on him. Their striking stats are quite similar, both are 50 percent on sig. strike defense and they are very close on sig. striking accuracy (55 percent for Figueiredo vs. 49 percent for Vera). The biggest difference is in sig. strikes absorbed per-minute, with Vera taking 5.48 shots versus Figueiredo’s 3.38.
When it comes to power, Figueiredo might have the edge. He has 11 knockdowns in his UFC career across 16 fights. Vera has 10 knockdowns across 23 fights. Vera leads the division with finishes (10) and KO/TKO wins (6), but a lot of that is due to his longevity in the promotion. Figueiredo time in Flyweight has him on top the record books there with finishes (7) and KO/TKO wins (4).
I don’t foresee this fight being anything other than a kickboxing bout, but if it does end up on the ground, Figueiredo has the better skill set there. Though, Vera has never been overwhelmed on the ground (and never been submitted). However, other than Munhoz, he’s not faced an ace on the ground in the UFC. And the fight with Munhoz was spent entirely on the feet.
Ultimately my pick is going to be for Figueiredo since I think he will just shade Vera in the striking exchanges and that he might be able to land a takedown here and there. Both guys have shown that, at times, they can ‘check out’ mentally in fights, though, so I can’t be that confident in taking either of them.
Prediction: Deiveson Figueiredo via split decision.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Tony Ferguson (+490) vs. Michael Chiesa (-675)
What year is this?
This weekend we have two TUF winners facing off, who come from an era when TUF was actually worth watching.
We can’t talk about Tony Ferguson without recognizing that he is currently on the worst losing streak in UFC history. The 40-year-old El Cucy has been losing for so long now that his 12-fight winning streak, during which he was recognized as one of the most dangerous fighters in the sport, feels like ancient history. The winning streak was snapped when he was TKO’d by Justin Gaethje during the height of the pandemic (see it here). Since then he’s lost six times. Most recently he lost a decision to Paddy Pimblett, which came after a submission loss to King Green (see it here).
Michael Chiesa has suffered a heck of a decline, too. However, his comes due to long injury induced lay-offs. Those injuries prevented Chiesa from realizing his potential during his athletic prime. He did secure a four fight winning streak between 2018 and 2021, fighting just once a year, where he got the better of Rafael dos Anjos, Carlos Condit, Diego Sanchez and Neil Magny.
When he got off the veteran’s tour he was submitted by both Vicente Luque (see it here) and Kevin Holland (see that here).
Chiesa is 36, but his injury record probably has his body feeling five years older than that.
It’s very hard to guess how this fight will go. Neither man fights anywhere close to how they did during their prime. The oddsmakers have Chiesa as a massive favorite here, mostly due to the lack of confidence in Ferguson to do anything positive inside the cage.
It feels impossible to pick Ferguson, so my pick is for Cheisa (by default).
Pick: Michael Chiesa via unanimous decision.
Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Mackenzie Dern (-125) vs. Loopy Godinez (+105)
After a steady diet of strikers recently Macknzie Dern will get to face a wrestler at UFC Abu Dhabi in the form of Loopy Godinez. That might be a welcome change for her, having lost a bruising encounter to Amanda Lemos last time out and being TKO’d by Jessica Andrade before that (see it here). Just before those losses she beat Angela Hill in a stand-up battle.
These fights have seen Dern compete eagerly on the feet, to her own detriment. She has been able to get most of her recent fights to the ground and enjoy long periods of control. However, her position over submission mentality has meant that finishes on the ground have been few and far between. Her last submission came in 2021 with an arm bar over Nina Nunes (see it here). That is only her fourth submission win in 13 UFC fights. By now she should have learned that her grappling dominance, without a killer instinct, is not enough to get her wins in the UFC’s most competitive women’s division.
She might get to spend a lot of time on the ground with Godinez. But if she does, can she convert that to a win? The oddsmakers seem unsure of that. They have this fight as a pick ‘em.
Godinez is 7-4 in UFC and she, like Dern, has often been drawn away from her best skill (wrestling) to engage in a kickboxing match against someone else who is very comfortable doing so.
Last time out she lost a unanimous decision to Virna Jandiroba. Avoiding submission against Jandiroba there (who looked incredible versus Amanda Lemos recently) might be a sign that she’s able to weather any storm Dern might bring her way on the ground.
Before that she picked up a split decision win over Tabatha Ricci, in a fight mainly fought on the feet.
I think how this fight goes really depends on Godinez’s mood and gameplan. If she decides she can hang with Dern on the ground and keep her pinned while she softens her up with punches, then I think she will be able to get Dern down and try that. If she decides she can beat Dern in a low volume kickboxing match, then I think she will be able to engineer that, too.
If she picks the ground, though, she is playing with more risk than if she keeps things standing. If she picks standing, there’s little reason to think Dern will be able to stop her (she has a 15% takedown accuracy vs. Godinez’s 85 percent defense — which is second highest the division).
Because I believe Godinez has the freedom to choose where this one takes place, I’m going to pick her. I think she’ll choose the kickboxing option and be able to box her way past Dern.
Pick: Loopy Godinez via unanimous decision
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Joel Alvarez (-192) vs. Elves Brener (+160)
I think this is a close fight. Elves Brener lost to Mytykbek Orolbai recently, but there were moments in that fight where he had the hot prospect in trouble. The loss was his first in the UFC and followed his KO win over Kaynan Krushewsky (see that here) and TKO victory over Guram Kutateladze (see that here).
Alvarez choked out Marc Diakiese in his last fight (see it here). That saw him rebound from a brutal TKO loss to Arman Tsarukyan (see that here). His past two fights were both stoppages, a standing TKO on Thiago Moises (see it here) and an armbar on Alexander Yakovlev. He did miss weight for both those wins, though.
Both Alvarez and Brener are certified finishers, so there’s a good chance this one doesn’t go to the judges’ scorecards.
Both are also pretty well rounded, with crafty (and violent) stand up games and BJJ designed to end fights (not control them).
Alvarez is a weight class bully and he’ll have five inches of height and five inches of reach over Brener. I think that might make the difference in this fight. I think both guys will be willing to trade, but that range will let Alvarez land shots Brener might not be able to match.
Never count out Brener entirely, though. He beat Kutateladze as a +475 underdog and Zubaira Tukhugov as a +470 underdog.
Pick: Joel Alvarez via TKO, round 2.
UFC Abu Dhabi ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Alonzo Menifield (+170) vs. Azamat Murzakanov (-205)
Alonzo Menfield is one of a few guys on this card who shouldn’t have picked up the phone when they saw Hunter Campbell was calling. He’s coming off a 12 second TKO loss to Carlos Ulberg two months ago (see it here). If this weren’t so soon after that loss I’d be tempted to pick Menifield here, partly because of his five inch reach advantage.
Azamat Murzakanov is an exciting 13-0 fighter with highlight reel finishes over Tafon Nchukwi (see it here) and Devin Clark. And he’s coming off a unanimous decision win over Dustin Jacoby.
Menifield has a recent unanimous decision win over Dustin Jacoby, too. In his fight with Jacoby Menifield landed 95 of 145 (58 percent) sig. strikes and scored one of two takedown attempts. Murzakanov landed 67 of 127 sig. strikes (52 percent) and went 1 of 5 on takedowns. Menifield was able to bank 2:03 of control time against Jacoby (and give up 2:08). Murzakanov only managed 16 seconds of control time and gave up 3:06 in his Jacoby fight. Jacoby was able to land 93 sig. strikes on Menifield and 64 sig. strikes on Muzakanov.
I can see Menifield being able to hit Murzakanov from range, just like Jacoby did (who has the same reach as Menifield) and also be strong enough to control him in the clinch. However, with the Ulberg loss being so recent and Menifield making the longer trip, I fancy the undefeated Murzakanov to win this one.
Pick: Azamat Murzakanov via TKO, round 1.
Mohammad Yahya (+310) vs. Kaue Fernandes (-395)
These guys are both 0-1 in the UFC. Mohammad Yahya is from the UAE. He lost a decision to Trevor Peek at UFC 294 in March. He’s 30-years-old with a so-so record in UAE Warriors and Bellator. I think he’s fighting on this card just because he’s available.
Kaue Fernandes is 29-years-old and he lost a split decision to Marc Diakiese in 2023. He had a so-so record in LFA. He’s not had a very active career, just 10 fights in 11 years.
The oddsmakers like the journeyman here, but this is a coin flip for me.
Pick: Mohammad Yahya via decision.
Shamil Gaziev (-225) vs. Don’Tale Mayes (+185)
Don’Tale Mayes is coming off a unanimous decision win over Caio Machado in April. He’s been up and down in the UFC, losing boring decisions to Rodrigo Nascimento and Augusto Sakai, but also TKO’ind Andrei Arlovski (see it here) and Josh Parisian (with a crucifix — see it here).
Shamil Gaziev fights out of nearby Bahrain. He lost his undefeated record after retiring between rounds versus Jairzinho Rozenstruik in a stinker of a main event in March (due to gassing out - see it here). Prior to that he bludgeoned Martin Buday (see it here) and scored a submission win on Contender Series.
Gaziev is the favorite here, but I like Mayes. He can fight for three rounds, something Gaziev has a lot of trouble with. Gaziev needs to finish fights early and Mayes has shown he is pretty durable (and he’s never been finished in the first round). Mayes also has a slight reach advantage and pretty decent takedown defense for a Heavyweight.
Pick: Don’Tale Mayes via unanimous decision
Guram Kutateladze (-218) vs. Jordan Vucenic (+180)
Guram Kutateladze has fallen off as a prospect after losses to Elves Brener and Damir Ismagulov. Those losses came after a split decision short notice win over Mateusz Gamrot in his UFC debut.
This is Jordan Vucenic’s UFC debut after signing from Cage Warriors, an organization where he was Featherweight champion for a time (having beaten Morgan Charriere). He has a funky submission game and I think he’s worth a look as an underdog here, especially due to Kutateladze’s failure to launch in the Octagon.
Pick: Jordan Vucenic via submission, round 1.
Victoria Dudakova (-170) vs. Sam Hughes (+142)
Victoria Dudakova is now 2-0 in UFC after a weight miss assisted win over Jinh Yu Frey (a natural atomweight) last October. Sam Hughes is coming off a decision loss to Yazmin Jauregui. She’s currently 3-5 in UFC. I think Dudakova has a higher ceiling than what we’ve seen from Hughes currently, but as things stand right now — I think this is a pretty close fight. Hughes, due to her experience, should be able to make things uncomfortable for Dudakova, but I’m still picking the undefeated Russian, who will have size, athleticism and speed on her side.
Pick: Victoria Dudakova via unanimous decision
Jai Herbert (-142) vs. Rolando Bedoya (+120)
Rolando Bedoya (who is coming down from Welterweight for this fight) needs a win after back-to-back decision losses to Kenan Song and Khaos Williams to start his UFC career. Jai Herbert turned 36 recently and his UFC record dropped to 2-4-1 with a loss to Fares Ziam last time out. Herbert knows how to manufacture wins in the Octagon, like he did over Kyle Nelson. We don’t know if Bedoya can do that yet.
Pick: Jai Herbert via unanimous decision
Sedriques Dumas (-218) vs. Denis Tiuliulin (+180)
Sedriques Dumas got a travel visa for this?
Dumas was TKO’d by Nursulton Ruziboev in March (see it here). Denis Tiuliulin has had some tough match-making in UFC. He’s coming off back-to-back TKO losses to Christian Leroy Duncan and Gregory Rodrigues (see those here and here). Before that he was tapped out by Jun Yong Park. He’s just 1-4 in UFC so far. Dumas, who has size, youth and athleticism going for him here, should be able to get past Tiuliulin.
Pick: Sedriques Dumas via unanimous decision
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
UFC Abu Dhabi Prop Bets & Parlays
Here’s a couple of things that look interesting for this Saturday’s UFC Abu Dhabi card ...
Shara Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk - Over 1.5 rounds (-140)
Betonline has very few props out for this event. That means Shara Magomedov to have a point deduction is off the table. I was robbed of that in his last fight. I actually think he will behave himself in this one with Michal Oleksiejczuk. Instead I’ll take the over on this fight, expecting Magomedov to continue his trend of slow starts and for Oleksiejczuk to give him more resistance than he’s faced thus far in his career.
Two pick parlay: Loopy Godinez +3.5 vs Mackenzie Dern and Umar Nurmagomedov to defeat Cory Sandhagen (+112)
These are two outcomes I’m pretty confident in and when we pair them together we get plus odds.
Umar Nurmagomedov has a very good chance of being able to rag-doll Cory Sandhagen and avoid his home run swings. His efficient and defensive striking will surprise Sandhagen, too. Across five rounds, Sandhagen will be taken down a lot and there’s a good chance he’ll get broken down and submitted late.
I don’t think Mackenzie Dern will finish Loopy Godinez. Godinez may choose to keep this whole fight standing and Dern won’t be able to force her to do otherwise (her takedown percentage is woeful). If Godinez does go to the ground, she’ll be on top of Dern. She could survive Virna Jandiroba, so I think she will survive Dern. If this does go to a decision, even if Dern wins it she won’t be winning it by more than 3 points.
Alonzo Menified vs. Azamat Murzakanov - Under 1.5 rounds (+120)
These boys will be swinging for the fences and I don’t like that Menifield is here less than three months after being dropped by Carlos Ulberg. Menifield is a fast strarter, for better or worse. I think there’s a good chance he initiates and early exchange that ends the fight. Whether he lands the last punch or gets slept, again, doesn’t matter for this bet.
UFC Abu Dhabi Poll Time
Which of the earlier props and parlays do you like the look of the most?
Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.
Remember that Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Abu Dhabi fight card right here, starting with the ESPN2/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches, which are scheduled to begin at 12 p.m. ET, then the remaining main card balance on ABC (simulcast on ESPN+) at 3 p.m. ET.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Abu Dhabi: “Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
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