After several boring weeks of crappy headlines, Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to the pay-per-view (PPV) market for UFC 311, topped by the lightweight title fight (and 155-pound rematch) between reigning division champion, Islam Makhachev, and No. 1-ranked title contender, Arman Tsarukyan. In addition, Merab Dvalishvili will make the first defense of his 135-pound title when he collides with fast-rising (and undefeated) challenger, Umar Nurmagomedov.
That’s not all.
Former light heavyweight champions, Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill, hook ‘em up to see who stays alive in the 205-pound title chase. Elsewhere on the five-fight PPV main card, Kevin Holland looks to quell the uprising of middleweight wunderkind Reinier de Ridder, not long before lightweight mainstays Beneil Dariush and Renato Moicano sling leather on Sat. night (Jan. 18) inside Intuit Dome in Los Angeles.
Let’s break down the entire five-fight main card below.
155 lbs.: UFC Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev (26-1) vs. Arman “Ahalkalakets”Tsarukyan (22-3)
Islam Makhachev has spent most of his pro career in the shadow of friend and mentor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, drawing frequent comparisons to the lightweight “Eagle” while being touted as “The Next Khabib.” In the UFC 311 main event, Makhachev will finally have the opportunity to surpass Nurmagomedov and stand along at the top of the 155-pound mountain. Defeating Arman Tsarukyan to defend his division strap will give Makhachev four consecutive title defenses, breaking the old record of three. Getting past a prime Tsarukyan will be no easy task, even though Makhachev already accomplished the task at UFC St. Petersburg back in early 2019 — when the challenger was just 22 years old.
After a shocking knockout loss to Adriano Martins at UFC 192 nearly a decade ago, Makhachev has been flawless, racking up 14 straight wins with nine nasty finishes. Like most fighters from Dagestan, Makhachev is a punishing wrestler who scores on more than half his shots. He’s also armed with surprisingly-effective striking and knockout power, making him a threat wherever the fight goes. Cardio is (mostly) a non-issue even in five-round title fights and that leaves us with very little to critique. What negative things can you say about a fighter who hasn't lost in nine years and routinely finishes world-class fighters along the way?
“I believe this is one of the hardest weight classes not just in the UFC, but all of the sport,” Makhachev said at the UFC 311 media day (watch it here). “I need some new target. I don’t want to look past Arman, because Arman is a really tough opponent. I just focus on him, you know? Looking for the rankings, thinking for the next opponent, it’s not my job. I’m just still training, still hungry. If we have something, just send me contract. It’s my opinion all my life: I never trust opponent, never thinking I’m gonna fight this guy, I’m not gonna fight this guy. Just send me contract, that’s it.”
Like Makhachev, the 28 year-old Tsarukyan has also been exceptional in the years following their “Fight of the Night” at UFC St. Petersburg, posting a 9-1 record and scoring a hard-fought victory over former champion Charles Oliveira to secure the No. 1 ranking and his crack at the 155-pound title. The lone blemish along the way came against Mateusz Gamrot at UFC Vegas 57, a particularly troubling loss — solely in regards to this column — because he was outwrestled by the Polish “Gamer,” giving up six takedowns across five rounds of action. That was just the second time in 11 UFC fights that Tsarukyan was outwrestled, with the first coming against (you guessed it) Makhachev in 2019. It’s also worth mentioning that several media outlets (including this one) scored his split decision victory over Charles Oliveira in favor of “Do Bronx.” Sounds like nitpicking? Remember, we’re trying to build a case for Tsarukyan dethroning the top pound-for-pound fighter in the sport.
“Islam is so smart,” Tsarukyan said on the Pound-4-Pound podcast. “He’s so well rounded. He can strike, he can clinch, he can wrestle, but he has weaknesses, as well. His conditioning not the best. So when he fights with a wrestle guy, when it’s going to be difficult to take down someone, he’s going to waste energy. His boxing is better than his kicks. I feel my kicks are way better than his. He is so smart, as well. He knows how to move, how to relax. Where you’ve got to drop your gloves, he has a lot of tricky things. On the clinch, he has good movement. He’s ready when you move and then takes you down when you knee him and he flips you. I’m just going to do my best there, and I know how I can beat (him), and I’ll go there, just feel my hands, power. I just can’t wait to show everybody what’s the new version of Arman Tsarukyan.”
I don’t think we should expect anything dramatically different from the Tsarukyan who defeated Oliveira at UFC 300 roughly nine months back; who ironically, is still one of the best lightweights in the world. Just not the best, a label that belongs to Makhachev until proven otherwise. Unless the champion has a catastrophic weight cut and loses all his mettle by the championship rounds, this fight should return a close (but definitive) result.
Prediction: Makhachev def. Tsarukyan by decision
135 lbs.: UFC Bantamweight Champion Merab “The Machine” Dvalishvili (18-4) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (18-0)
Merab Dvalishvili is called “The Machine” and there is really no other way to describe him. The newly-crowned bantamweight champion, now 34, may not have more than a few years left at this pace, but until Father Time catches up to him, I’m not sure anyone else will. After starting his UFC career with back-to-back losses to Frankie Saenz and Ricky Simon, Dvalishvili has been nothing short of unstoppable, registering 11 straight wins (a division record) while capturing the 135-pound crown from Sean O’Malley at UFC 306 last September. Dvalishvili also takes the top spot for Control Time (1:14:05), Total Strikes Landed (1950), and Takedowns Landed (72). The bulk of his success comes from his insane cardio and relentless wrestling game, enough to overwhelm anyone in the division — including Olympic gold medalist Henry Cejudo. Unfortunately, his wrestle-heavy offense has resulted in judges’ decisions in 10 of his last 11 wins, giving boo birds plenty to chirp about during live events.
“I think if we can keep the fight where we want it, Merab is going to shut a lot of people up and going to prove a lot of people right that he is who he says he is,” longtime friend and training partner, Aljamain Sterling, said on his YouTube channel. “No disrespect to Umar by any means. For me, it just comes down to one guy has done the work and one guy being propped up by the accolades of what his relative has done. I understand he’s trying to carve out his own name in history, but facts are still facts. The jury’s still out on Umar. We don’t really know if he’s really that guy just yet.”
“We know he’s good, we know he can fight, we know he’s dangerous on the ground if he gets to your back,” Sterling continued. “We know he’s got dynamic striking, we know he’s hard to hit cleanly, we do know he’s been dropped before by a debut guy, (Bekzat Almakhan). We do know his striking — he’s southpaw, he switches, he has a really good long front kick to the face, a nice question mark kick. How many of those strikes did he actually get off on Cory Sandhagen in Rounds 1, 2, 3 before Sandhagen started to slow down and get noticeably tired? So, there’s a lot of things we really paid attention to when we were breaking down the film. I think this is going to come down to pressure. I think Merab is going to put the pressure on him, and I think good things are going to happen.”
It’s impossible for Umar to escape the hype that comes with the Nurmagomedov name and having Khabib in his corner does little to dismiss accusations that his “Eagle” affiliation did more for his career than actual wins and losses. Looking back at Umar’s record, it’s hard to counter that point. Defeating Cory Sandhagen at UFC Abu Dhabi last August proved that Nurmagomedov can hang with the top half of the 135-pound weight class, but it was also the only time Umar defeated an opponent currently ranked in the Top 15 of the division. That said, Nurmagomedov only needed six fights under the UFC banner to lead the division in Top Position Performance (42.2%) and Significant Strike Accuracy (63.1%), establishing Umar as a legitimate threat both on the ground and on the feet. We know he can outstrike the champion ... what we don’t know is how well his wrestling will hold up against a five-round blitzkrieg.
“I’m here long time, I’m with them, and we know who we are,” Nurmagomedov said about his name identity at the UFC 311 media day (watch it here). “We know how we’re ready. I don’t feel pressure. It’s going to be good legacy for us. When we will become older, we’re going to tell our kids do you know your father was fighting for the title? Our team was great. It’s awesome. I think we’re going to be — our family, our team, going to be like Gracie. Everybody will know what we did in MMA.”
“The keys for Umar is one, can he keep it in the center of the Octagon and move laterally, against a guy that’s looking for takedowns,” former bantamweight champion, Henry Cejudo, said during his YouTube breakdown. “Watch my first round [against Merab] and you’ll be able to see that. Two, use those kicks, those teep kicks to fake off the bottom, to make him hesitate with the takedowns. Conditioning. Is his conditioning ready for ‘The Machine?’ This guy is at a different level. I think we’re going to hear, ‘And New!’”
Nurmagomedov is the more well-rounded fighter with dangerous striking, that is not up for dispute. I just think it will be too difficult for him to execute his gameplan with Dvalishvili constantly in his face, around his legs, and against the fence. Unless “The Machine” gets off to a slow start or gets warded off by the challenger’s kicking game, I think Dvalishvili will outwork his opponent and continue his unstoppable run at 135 pounds.
Prediction: Dvalishvili def. Nurmagomedov by decision
205 lbs.: Jiri “BJP” Prochazka (30-5-1) vs. Jamahal “Sweet Dreams” Hill (12-2, 1 NC)
Jiri Prochazka has just two losses across his last 16 fights and they’ve both come against reigning light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira, which is not uncommon for combatants who try to stand and trade with the Brazilian bricklayer. Outside of those two performances, which may have gone differently with a better gameplan, “BJP” has been nothing short of spectacular, racking up four wins under the UFC banner with all four victories coming by way of knockout or submission. In addition, Prochazka has five performance bonuses in just six fights with the promotion including two “Fight of the Night” honors. I don’t want to let the glowing praise for one of the sport’s most exciting fighters gloss over the fact that “BJP” takes an unholy amount of damage in each of his fights, win or lose, and is certainly not competing with his long-term health in mind. In fact, the Czech absorbs more strikes per minute (5.59) than he lands (5.38). That’s an incredible stat for someone with his record.
“I’m fighting Jamahal Hill, this is the opponent who I feel right now is right for me, and I’m ready for that,” Prochazka said during the recent UFC 311 “Embedded” preview video. “I think it’s a good matchup, we are both stand-up guys. I like pressure — Jamahal’s style is relaxed. He has a few dangerous things that I have to be ready for, and I am. But I see the space. I see the timing, the movement, when I will catch him.”
“You cannot believe me right now, but I have to say that I believe,” Prochazka added in a follow-up interview with MMA Today on SiriusXM. “I believe I have made a change in myself so necessary, a big change, that right now my style and myself, I am prepared for the title again. Against whoever. Against [Magomed] Ankalaev, against Pereira.”
Jamahal Hill has become one of the top names at 205 pounds and is currently ranked one spot below Prochazka at No. 3 in the official light heavyweight rankings. That probably has more to do with his mouth and less to do with his accomplishments inside the cage. Hill has only competed once over the last two years, a thunderous knockout loss to current champion Alex Pereira. Prior to that, Hill outlasted a geriatric (and since-retired) Glover Teixeira to capture the 205-pound crown. “Sweet Dreams” only holds one victory over a combatant currently ranked in the division Top 10 and that’s No. 10-ranked Johnny Walker, who went belly up in the UFC Vegas 48 main event back in early 2022. That said, there is no denying Hill has one-punch knockout power and overwhelming output, landing 7.18 strikes per minute. His ability to defend the takedown, however, leaves a lot to be desired.
“I feel a win here, especially a dominant, impressive win here, next fight is title,” Hill said at the UFC 311 media day (watch it here). “Next is the championship. I don’t see why it wouldn’t be. Ankalaev fought No. 5, No. 4 or something like that last then that just says title? So, I’m fighting No. 2 in the world. I don’t see me going backward from that. People liked it and loved the moment so much last time, so why wouldn’t you want it again? Plus, I’m not making any excuses because I signed the contract. I came in, I felt ready to go, and I felt like I was good. But still, nine months from an Achilles injury, I’d like to see what I’d do now with where I’m at now.”
Hill may have been rushed back from his Achilles injury when facing Pereira but I didn’t see anything in the replay that suggested his mobility was to blame for going limp. At the same time, I am not feeling overly-confident about Prochazka’s chances here, simply because of his reckless nature. He remains a slight underdog and rightly so — even though “BJP” has more ways to win. Prochazka’s offense leaves him vulnerable to counter fire and he may have been able to absorb punches from the likes of Aleksandar Rakic and Glover Teixeira but he won’t have that luxury against the heavy hands of Hill. Unless Prochazka resorts to his wrestling and implements a win-first gameplan, the style that made him famous is also going to send him to his second straight loss, melted by a “Sweet Dreams” nightmare punch.
Prediction: Hill def. Prochazka by knockout
155 lbs.: Beneil Dariush (22-6-1) vs. Renato “Moicano” Carneiro (20-5-1)
It wasn’t that long ago when longtime lightweight veteran Beneil Dariush was ranked in the Top 5 at 155 pounds and one victory away from a coveted title shot, taking out some very tough competition along the way. That includes Mateusz Gamrot, who holds a victory over UFC 311 headliner Arman Tsarukyan. Unfortunately, Dariush got obliterated by former champion Charles Oliveira at UFC 289, followed by another first-round knockout loss to the aforementioned Tsarukyan at UFC Austin. 2023 was so bad for Dariush he needed an entire year off to rest and recover, though questions still remain about what kind of impact he can have at the top of the division just a few months in front of his 36th birthday.
There are two ways to look at this.
It’s possible that Dariush peaked and crashed and has nothing left at this level of competition. It’s also possible that Dariush was simply outmatched by two of the best lightweights in the world and closing the coffin based on two losses against elite competition is a rush to judgment.
UFC 311 will likely provide that answer.
“I feel great right now,” Dariush said at the UFC 311 media day (watch it here). “I’m just looking forward to the fight. As far as retirement goes, one day you just know you don’t have it. If that’s the case, we’re done. I think I’m a little bit younger than him. I think I’m a couple months younger than him, but yeah — it’s pretty funny. If that’s the case, one old guy is going to get beat up, basically. I want to beat that old piece of poop up.”
Renato Carneiro is also 35 but unlike Dariush, has only gotten better with age. Once an inconsistent featherweight who spent several years floundering in 145-pound waters, “Moicano” found new life at lightweight and is currently riding a four-fight win streak with three nasty finishes, That includes his stoppage over French toughie Benoit St-Denis at UFC Paris last September. The knock against Carneiro is that his competition has been average, at best, and Dariush — ranked one spot above the Brazilian at No. 9 — will mark his first Top 10 opponent since losing to Rafael Dos Anjos in early 2022.
“I like him very much, I respect him very much,” Carneiro said at the UFC 311 media day (watch it here). “He’s dangerous and has more knockout power than me. He has more knockouts than me. He’s very f*cking awkward. If you remember his fight against Drakkar Klose, he was almost getting knocked out, and then he swung his arms and he got the guy. He’s got good jiujitsu. He’s in a tough position with two losses, and I’m going to make sure he ends in a worst position now because I will beat, doesn’t matter if he’s good or bad. I can’t afford to lose.”
Carneiro is heralded as one of the division’s most entertaining fighters and for good reason, but it’s worth noting that “Moicano” has just two post-fight performance bonuses and they were both at featherweight. If Dariush is shot and has no chin, which is certainly plausible, this will be a showcase fight for the Brazilian. The more likely scenario is that Dariush follows the blueprint set by Dos Anjos — who blanked Carneiro 5-0 on takedowns — and safely wrestles his way to a sweep on the judges’ scorecards.
Prediction: Dariush def. Carneiro by unanimous decision
185 lbs.: Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland (26-12, 1 NC) vs. Reinier “The Dutch Knight” de Ridder (18-2)
Kevin Holland is a dangerous fighter with knockout power and slick submissions and should probably be in the Top 5 of the division based solely on his talent. I’m not sure where it all goes wrong for the 32 year-old “Trailblazer,” who is like that smart kid in college who never studied and just seemed content to coast by with a C average. Only Holland can answer that, or maybe he can’t, but he certainly enjoys the showbiz aspect of this business where he can just be himself and be adored for it (and make a lot of money along the way). The Season 2 “Contender Series” slugger has dropped three of his last four and will score PPV real estate anyway, because the promotion is trying to build international superstar Reinier de Ridder and Holland has the name value (and resume) to provide the necessary backdrop.
“I know he had a pretty decent career over at ONE,” Holland said at the UFC 311 media day (watch it here). “I know he lost all that before he came over here. Ultimately, I just see him starting to fade and just giving me the ‘dub,’ that’s just kind of how I picture it. When he lost his belt in the last organization, he kind of just faded and gave the belt away. Maybe that’s what he does: fades and gives it away. Him in the Gerald Meerschaert fight was fun. Gerald is a tough person to fight. That being said, Meerschaert just made a slight mistake. If Meerschaert had not made that mistake, I think in Round 3 Meerschaert would’ve won that fight. The guy was ready to quit.”
De Ridder, 34, was undefeated in his career and laying waste to most of his opponents in ONE Championship, to the point where “The Dutch Knight” was paired off with Anatoly Malykhin, who captured titles at both heavyweight and light heavyweight. That would be like Holland moving up to fight Jon Jones, so I won’t say De Ridder gets a pass; but I’m also not going to dismiss him as a quitter or someone who folds under pressure. To wit, just a few months after his second Malykhin loss, the Dutchman returned to smoke Magomedmurad Khasaev for UAE Warriors, then debuted for UFC with a submission win over the aforementioned Meerschaert at UFC Vegas 100. How much you stock you put into that performance may depend on your opinion of Meerschaert as a competitor, but I think we can say with some degree of confidence that De Ridder is here to make a statement.
“He’s very experienced, he’s been around for a long while,” de Ridder said at the UFC 311 media day (watch it here). “His main thing is his right hand is a very strong, very precise right hand and he has a lot of smoke around it. A lot of weird kicks, weird punches that don’t really do a lot normally. But if he can crack you with the right hand, straight down the pipe, you’re in trouble. That’s what I’m going to try and stay away from. I’m going to try and pressure him, hit him with some good shots, take him down, choke him out. I see myself putting the pressure on. I think the first minute is going to be very wild, very spectacular. He’s going to be trying to get away from me throwing wild stuff, wild kicks, wild punches.”
Holland is the type of unorthodox fighter who can give De Ridder a world of problems and that’s why they are close to even on the betting line. It’s just hard to pick a combatant who is as inconsistent as Holland and so blasé about losing. I don’t think it will be as quick (or as violent) as his loss to Khamzat Chimaev, but I do expect De Ridder to return a similar offense-first strategy and exploit Holland’s deficiencies in wrestling.
Prediction: De Ridder def. Holland by submission
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