UFC 309 is live this weekend (Sat., Nov. 16, 2024), featuring a pay-per-view (PPV) main event of Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic for the Heavyweight title. Checkout the odds for that legacy-defining fight (and much more) right here!
UFC 309 goes down this weekend (Sat., Nov. 16, 2024) from inside the historic Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event will see a rare appearance from Jon Jones (we hope) and UFC’s Heavyweight title. “Bones” will be put that piece of legacy-defining hardware up for grabs against former division champion, Stipe Miocic.
UFC 309’s co-headliner promises lots of violence with a re-run of Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler. Chandler will look to avoid the “MSG curse” in that pivotal 155-pound bout. The PPV main card also features super prospect Bo Nickal against Paul Craig, one of many fights with massively unbalanced odds. UFC 309’s PPV main card also has Karine Silva vs. Viviane Araujo and Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop.
The “Prelims” will be headlined by Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee, while also showcasing Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders and Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson, among other bouts (see full fight card here).
As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:
UFC 309 Main Card Money Line Odds
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Jon Jones (-725) vs. Stipe Miocic (+450)
This match-up is so odd that there’s no real point looking at stats, considering that the meaningful fights for both Jones and Miocic have happened either years ago or in different weight classes.
Of all the numbers I could pull out of the air, I think 1,330 is the most important.
That’s how many days it’s been since Miocic last competed. Indeed, it was March 27, 2021, when he was starched by He Who The UFC Shall Not Name. That loss came about one year after Miocic’s prior bout, his trilogy fight victory against Daniel Cormier.
The long period of inactivity, the manner of his last loss and the fact that fighting is not Miocic’s main job (and hat’s off to him for that), has me being very understanding of why the bookies have made him such a big underdog in this fight.
Miocic is also 42-years-old. That’s not ancient by Heavyweight standards, but ... he’s fighting Jon Jones.
All these risk factors for Miocic are made even more terrible by the fact of who he is facing.
Jones is not the world beater he once was, but he’s still a winner (in the cage). And we’ve seen something that should have us doubting that.
Miocic’s path to winning is landing a big punch. But, how many times have we heard that when applied to Jones?
Jones ran through the Light Heavyweight era, back when watching UFC was a lot more fun, and used his fight IQ to get around some of the deadliest strikers we’ve seen in the sport.
His speed may have trickled away, but I bet his mind (in this context) is as sharp as ever. I have very little doubts that he will be able to stay away from Miocic’s big shot and implement his range striking and, when he has to, clinch and out wrestle Miocic. I think this will result in a decision win for Jones, but I can see him scoring a submission, too.
Because Jones is so versatile there is a lot of value to be had on Method of Victory betting. He’s currently +120 to win by KO/TKO/DQ, +200 to win by submission and +400 to win by decision.
I’m a little surprised at how short the odds are on KO/TKO, since Jones has only finished 37 percent of his fights via strikes and the last time he did that was against a pretty washed Alexander Gustafsson in 2018 (see it here). Miocic’s age and the fact he’s been stopped by Francis Ngannou and Daniel Cormier (and Stefan Struve, remember that?) are probably the culprits for this price being as low as it is.
Miocic has never been submitted. But, the only Heavyweight submission threat he ever faced was Fabricio Werdum and he knocked him out in less than three minutes.
I like the submission and decision bets. And I’m actually a little shocked that you can get +400 for Jones winning by decision.
You can get Fight to go the Distance for +300. That’s very tempting, since it covers us just in case Miocic is able to mug Jones in the same fashion he once did to Ngannou (Miocic to win by decision is +1400, by the way).
Ultimately I think I’ll take Jones by decision, in recognition of how tough Miocic is and also a nagging feeling that Jones might decide to cruise through this fight and soak up the MSG limelight for as long as possible in his supposed retirement fight.
Best bet: Jones Jones via decision (+400)
Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC
Charles Oliveira (-265) vs. Michael Chandler (+215)
Obviously, we’ve seen this before!
And here it is:
Chandler came close to finishing Oliveira a few times in the first round, landing two or three big shots that had “Do Bronx” wobbled. Oliveira would survive, though, going to his grappling to buy time to clear the cobwebs. Early in the second round Oliveira dropped Chandler with a little check hook. Chandler’s response was to run, since wrestling/grappling are not safe spaces against Oliveira. In flight Oliveira was able to catch up to Chandler and put him down and out soon after.
Because Oliveira has the safety of the mat to go to if and when he gets hurt, I’m siding with the oddsmakers in this match-up. We saw that both men were capable of hitting and hurting the other. But Oliveira is the one capable of weathering the storms that come from that. If and when Chandler gets hurt on the feet, he can only run and get chased down again or try and get close and leave himself open to the UFC’s leader in submission victories. Not a great outlook for Muscle Milk Mike, eh?
Like Jones, Oliveira is versatile in how he can finish a fight. This means there’s lots of plus money available on his method of victory. Oliveira by KO/TKO/DQ is +215 and by submission is +130 (via decision is +1200).
I seriously doubt this is going to a decision, though. Oliveira has only seen scorecards in five of his 33 pro contests. His two UFC decisions are his split loss to Arman Tsarukyan in April and his loss to Frankie Edgar back in 2013.
Chandler went to a decision, and lost, against Justin Gaethje in 2021. But, that’s only his third time going to a decision since 2016.
Vegas has it +550 on the fight going the distance. And the total rounds are set at 1.5, with -110 on the over and -120 on the under. If a finish comes, I think it will come later, so I like the over here as a safe-ish bet.
Because I believe OIiveira will win and that this fight will last at least two rounds, Betonline has a great same fight parlay option and that will be my best bet.
Best bet: Charles Oliveira to Win and Over 1.5 rounds (+165)
Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images
Bo Nickal (-1300) vs. Paul Craig (+700)
I don’t know what the point is of matching Nickal against opponent’s he’s going to be -1000 against or more. By now, we know he’s really good and possibly elite. He’s on the third to last fight on one of the company’s biggest PPV’s of the year.
Why is he here against someone as beatable as Paul Craig?
Granted, Nickal has only fought five times in an Octagon (two of those times being on Contender Series) and his best win is over Cody Brundage. But, he’s 28, not 21, and he’s clearly good enough to be thrown in among the big dogs.
The 36-year-old Craig, meanwhile, was beat up badly by Caio Borralho in his last fight. Before that, he was submitted by Brendan Allen (see it here). And we’re only one year removed from when he was knocked out by Johnny Walker (see it here).
Craig’s best weapons are off his back, but he’s not going to have access to any of them with Nickal on top of him.
I expect Nickal to get the takedown, with ease early, and then get a quick ground-and-pound or arm-triangle win. I’m not alone in this thinking, the odds on a 60-second (or less) ending of this fight is just +550 (it’s usually twice that much).
Best bet: Bo Nickal to win in round 1 (-105)
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Viviane Araujo (+225) vs. Karine Silva (-275)
Silva is on a nice little run. She’s undefeated (4-0) since graduating from Contender Series with three submission wins, including a kneebar on Ketlen Souza (see it here). Last time out, she took a comfortable decision over Ariane de Silva (taking her down on five of six attempts and holding her down for over seven minutes).
Vivane Araujo is just 1-3 in her last four. That win is over Jennifer Maia, who is headlining Invicta next month. Her losses are to Natalia Silva, Amanda Ribas and Alexa Grasso — all by unanimous decision.
I think Araujo will struggle in this bout. Silva is a finisher (94 percent of wins by stoppage). Araujo is a decision-er. Her only UFC stoppage is a late knockout over Talita Bernado in her UFC debut back in 2019 (see it here).
Araujo is active on the feet, but her significant strikes landed per minute is 4.11. Her sig. strikes absorbed is 4.96. So, it’s no surprise that she’s finished second place in all these stand up battles as of late.
Silva is a little similar in that she lands 2.67 sig. strikes and absorbs 3.12. However, she compliments her striking with takedowns, landing 3.59 of them every 15 minutes with a takedown accuracy of 72 percent. I think that will make the difference in this fight.
Araujo’s takedown defense is good at 78 percent. However, Maia was able to get her down twice on four attempts, despite having a career takedown accuracy of just 27 percent. And Ribas went 2-2 on takedowns, despite having a 51 percent takedown accuracy.
Araujo has never been submitted, so I think we’re in for a full three rounds in this fight.
Best bet: Karine Silva via decision (+100)
Photo by Alexandre Loureiro/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Mauricio Ruffy (-850) vs. James Llontop (+575)
I was a little down on Mauricio Ruffy before his proper UFC debut opposite Jamie Mullarkey. But, The Fighting Nerd really proved me wrong. His striking looked very sharp and powerful, as you’d expect from that camp. In taking out Mullarkey in one round (see it here), Ruffy extended his finishing streak to five fights.
Llontop, meanwhile, has had a 2024 to forget. In April, he was submitted in the first round by Chris Padilla despite being a -450 favorite (see it here). He also missed weight for that fight. He then lost a split decision to Viacheslav Borshchev in August.
Llontop showed off a heck of a chin against Borshchev, but I think there’s a chance Ruffy will be able to finish him in this fight. Ruffy has a two-inch reach advantage and he’s shown some great accuracy thus far in UFC (59 percent).
The only odds on Betonline are moneyline and total rounds (1.5). I think Llontop is tough enough to survive a round, at least, but will ultimately get stopped.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-175)
UFC 309 Late ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Photo by Leandro Bernardes/PxImages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Jonathan Martinez (+115) vs. Marcus McGhee (-135)
Martinez froze in his last fight, a date with one of our GOATs — Jose Aldo — in Rio this spring. Martinez seemed totally swallowed up by the occasion and he just couldn’t get anything going against the former champ. After the fight he looked very emotional, so there may be a deeper story behind the scenes there.
That loss snapped Martinez’s six-fight win streak, which included leg kick TKOs over Adrian Yanez and Cub Swanson (see it here).
McGhee is a 34-year-old three-fight veteran in UFC. He beat up Gaston Bolanos in his last fight and won a “Performance of the Night” bonus. For what it’s worth, Bolanos looked alright this past weekend.
Neverthless, I think Martinez will probably rebound here and will look to get back to what works for him; namely leg kicks. In his three UFC fights McGhee’s opponents have landed a quarter of their offense to his legs. If he tries to walk through Martinez’s kicks then he could have a big problem on his hands (or shins).
McGhee is the favorite here, but I don’t think these guys are that far apart.
Best bet: Jonathan Martinez moneyline (+114)
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Chris Weidman (+115) vs. Eryk Anders (-135)
Weidman won a very weird eye-poke festooned fight with Bruno Silva last time out. That came after a decision loss to Brad Tavares in the fight that marked his return from a broken leg.
Anders, meanwhile, beat Jamie Pickett in March. That followed loss to Marc-Andre Barriault.
Weidman turned 40-years-old in June. You have to be a pretty special fighter for me to pick you once you cross that line. Anders is no spring chicken himself — he turned 37 in May. However, Weidman has considerably more fight years on him — thanks in part to some brutal losses along the way (like this one here to Gegard Mousasi).
In his prime, Weidman wouldn’t have had much trouble here, but I don’t think he has enough left in the tank to out-pace Anders.
Best bet: Eryk Anders moneyline (-122)
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Jim Miller (+140) vs. Damon Jackson (-170)
Here’s another 40-year-old!
Miller actually turned 41 a few months ago. Despite his age, he’s been capable of picking up wins in UFC. His most recent victory was a submission over Gabriel Benitez (see it here). Last time out, though, he was well beaten by King Green.
Damon Jackson, 36 (but with the hair of a twenty year old!), lost to Chepe Mariscal in August. That followed a split decision win over Alexander Hernandez.
Jackson will have some decent size over Miller and I think that really help him out in the grappling exchanges I’m expecting in this fight. Both these guys are great on the ground, so I’m hoping for some good scrambles.
I think this will be a close fight that goes the distance.
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-145)
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC
David Onama vs. Roberto Romero
No odds for this bout have been released at this time of writing. Roberto Romero is a late replacement for Lucas Almeida. He has fought almost exclusively with Combate Global.
David Onama took a unanimous decision over Jonathan Pearce in his last fight, a fight he came in heavy for.
Best bet: NA
UFC 308 Early ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Marcin Tybura (-148) vs. Jhonata Diniz (+124)
I don’t like this fight for Diniz. He had a perfect coming out party on deck for him with Derrick Lewis in Edmonton. I was high on his chances of finishing Lewis and announcing himself as a legit contender at Heavyweight. However, with Lewis falling out due to illness, Diniz has opted to jump into a short notice fight against a fighter who is nothing like who he was training for.
Diniz has shown he can crack, but his takedown defense has barely been tested. Austen Lane took him down in his debut, before Diniz eventually landed a knockout blow (see it here). And then Diniz got past Karl Williams, after William inexplicably ignored wrestling (something he’s far better at than Diniz).
Williams may have had a chip on his shoulder and wanted to show he could hang with a scary KO artist from GLORY. Tybura is not that guy. He’s going to do what he needs to win a fight and he won’t care if the crowd, the blogosphere or his bosses like it.
I think there’s a good chance Tybura uglies up this fight and makes Diniz carry him for three rounds. Tybura to win is -148. The round total is set at 1.5, which feels extremely low.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-140).
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Mickey Gall (-125) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (+105)
This is an intriguing match-up of what you’d consider grapple-first guys. However, both Mickey Gall and Ramiz Brahimaj have shown they can be willing strikers, albeit with mixed results.
Last time out Gall came in second to Bassil Hafez (who also fights at UFC 309) after he was drawn into a brawl. Gall showed a great chin in that fight.
Brahmiaj lost to Thembo Gorimbo in his last fight, though he was never hurt or in danger of being finished (despite Gorimbo being a dangerous striker).
These guys are pretty even on the ground. I hope we see some good scrambles on the mat, instead of a tepid kickboxing match (due to both guys thinking they have the edge on the feet).
Both men are hard to stop, so I think this goes the distance.
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-160)
Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images
Oban Elliott (-245) vs. Bassil Hafez (+200)
Bassil Hafez started his UFC career with an ultra short notice booking opposite Jack Della Maddalena. That showed a lot of guts. And losing a split decision showed a lot of toughness, too. Hafez then beat Mickey Gall by decision, thanks to his power edge in striking (which at times looked a little stiff and monotonous).
Oban Elliott put in a complete performance against Preston Parsons at UFC 304 to make him 2-0 in UFC. In that fight he looked clinical on both the feet and with his wreslting/control game.
Hafez is very aggressive. So it will be interesting to see if Elliott can keep his cool and make Hafez pay for storming in with wild swinging punches. I think Elliott is likely to duck under those punches and get the takedowns he needs to win the fight.
Best bet: Oban Elliott moneyline (-245)
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Veronica Hardy (-155) vs. Eduarda Moura (+130)
Veronica Hardy beat JJ Aldrich, by unanimous decision, in her last fight. Eduarda Moura lost a split decision to Denise Gomes last time out.
Moura missed weight for the Gomes fight. She also missed weight when she beat Montserrat Ruiz by TKO. That’s why she’s fighting at Flyweight here. She’s familiar with 125 lbs, though, having competed at that weight on the Brazilian scene.
I think Moura is a live dog in this match-up. She’ll have two inches of reach on Hardy and her significant striking accuracy is over ten percentage points higher than Hardy’s. Moura is a takedown machine, too, landing 5.15 per minutes. She attempted 26 of them in her bout with Gomes.
Best bet: Eduarda Moura moneyline (+130)
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
UFC 309 Long Shots!
Here’s a couple of long shots for those folks who want to put a little on something that might come with a big return.
Karine Silva, Bo Nickal, Charles Oliveira and Jon Jones to win by submission (+8207)
We had a stoppage party at UFC Vegas 100. Maybe we get one under the bright lights of MSG, too? The main card has multiple fighters who are known to throw down a submission or two. If we put them together we get some ungoldy odds.
Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler - Point to Be Deducted - YES (+2000)
I love this prop bet (it doesn’t love me much, though). Dustin Poirier thinks Michael Chandler is a dirty fighter. Maybe he gets caught with his fingers in the cage (or Oliveira’s mouth).
Jon Jones to win by Submission in Round 3 (+1400)
I think there’s a good chance Jon Jones ends this fight by submission. He’s never been a power hitter, but he’s as crafty as they come. I can see him snatching Miocic up in a d’arce against the cage or perhaps a kimura on the ground. I’m going round three here, assuming both men will take a round or two to just find their feet in the cage.
Remember that Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 309 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To check out the latest and greatest UFC 309: “Jones vs. Miocic” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
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