Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) makes its return to the “Big Apple” with the upcoming UFC 309 pay-per-view (PPV) mixed martial arts (MMA) event, headlined by the heavyweight title fight pitting reigning division kingpin, Jon Jones, against former division titleholder, Stipe Miocic. Before that five-round legacy fight gets underway, ex-lightweight champion, Charles Oliveira, looks to make it two-zip against former Bellator MMA titleholder Michael Chandler. Undefeated middleweight phenom Bo Nickal, along with Viviane Araujo and Mauricio Ruffy, among others will also see combat sports action this weekend in “The Empire State.”
Who wins and who loses? Let’s try to figure that out below.
265 lbs.: Heavyweight Champion Jon “Bones” Jones (27-1, 1 NC) vs. Stipe Miocic (20-4)
Jon Jones has been competing inside the Octagon for more than 16 years and his career has been so full of mishaps, drama, and controversies, both inside and outside the cage, that it’s hard to know what’s real anymore. What made Jones such a problem at light heavyweight was his size, standing 6’4” with an unconquerable 84” reach, a potent weapon for “Bones” who unlike most rough-and-tumble UFC fighters, knows how to utilize the jab and command distance inside the cage. Somewhere along the way, the killer who terrorized the 205-pound weight class with merciless finishes (think Lyoto Machida) evolved into a point fighter comfortable with coasting to decisions, not unlike welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre in the second half of his career.
Whether or not that strategy allowed the rest of the division to catch up is unclear, but Jones clearly met his match in late title defenses against Thiago Santos and Dominick Reyes, with the latter serving as an invisible asterisk in an otherwise unblemished career. That performance should worry fans betting on “Bones” because Stipe Miocic presents many of the same problems that Reyes did, starting with his size and strength. The counter to that argument is how quickly Jones dispatched the monstrous Ciryl Gane at UFC 285 in March 2023, but let’s be honest with ourselves and admit that “Bon Gamin” laid an egg in that fight. Gane was tapping the canvas so fast and with such vigor I thought his glove was on fire and he was trying to extinguish the flame.
Miocic returns to the Octagon with his own share of question marks, a 42 year-old former champion who is coming off a knockout loss and trying to overcome a three-year layoff. It’s been seven years since the part-time firefighter has fought someone not named Francis Ngannou or Daniel Cormier so this feels like a fresh, exciting matchup — even if both combatants are competing in the twilight of their respective careers. What made Miocic such a formidable champion was his boxing, a striker who had not only power but also technique. That allowed him to make the necessary adjustments in his Cormier trilogy to rebound from a knockout loss and return with back-to-back victories, retiring “DC” in the process. He’s also an underrated wrestler with a takedown defense of 68 percent.
Jones does not have knockout power and never did. His ability to slowly frustrate and break down opponents through jabs, teep kicks, and distance has often forced opposing fighters to make hasty decisions or get overly-aggressive, opening themselves up to the champ’s near-unstoppable wrestling attack. Despite some top shelf trolling from Jones ahead of this marquee matchup, I doubt he’s succeeded in getting inside Miocic’s head and I find it hard to believe the former champ will be anything but patient inside the cage, flipping the script and doing his own share of frustrating by defending takedowns and landing power shots upon exit. If you think Jones is going to run through Miocic (the sportsbooks certainly do), perhaps it’s time to fall out of love with the Gane fight and go watch his final stretch at light heavyweight.
Prediction: Miocic def. Jones by decision
155 lbs.: Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira (34-10, 1 NC) vs. “Iron” Michael Chandler (23-8)
There are a couple of obvious questions when talking about any rematch, like what has changed since the first fight and how that change will contribute to a different outcome. It also pays to examine what happened in the initial encounter that was egregious enough to warrant a rematch and sometimes the answer is “nothing,” which is why we’re getting this do-over. Charles Oliveira defeated Michael Chandler by way of second-round technical knockout at UFC 262 in Texas, then went on to finish off Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje in back-to-back fights. “Do Bronx” would eventually surrender the strap to Dagestani powerhouse Islam Makhachev, before splitting his next two fights against Beneil Dariush (W) and Arman Tsarukyan (L). The 35 year-old Brazilian remains one of the most dynamic and dangerous lightweights on the roster and holds the record for most finishes in UFC history at 20. He also set the mark for submissions at 16 and is currently No. 1 all-time for post-fight performance bonuses at 19.
Charles Oliveira is a bad mother—ker.
He also lives and dies by the sword, which is why he’s been finished in eight of his 10 losses. Let’s not forget that Chandler dropped the Brazilian and had him inches from oblivion in the first round of their UFC 262 headliner before taking the opening frame on points. Like Oliveira, the former Bellator MMA lightweight champion fights like it’s life-or-death in the Roman Colosseum, circa 81 AD. Chandler has only competed five times inside the Octagon but four of those contests were good enough to net him a $50,000 performance bonus with two “Fight of the Night” honors. Chandler is an NCAA Division-1 All American wrestler out of Missouri with a takedown average 2.17 per three rounds of action and it would probably be much higher but let’s face it, “Iron” likes to stand and bang. That strategy has earned him double-digit knockout wins, just as it has gotten him knocked out in 50 percent of his career losses. That might drive his coaches crazy but you’ll never hear a UFC fan complain about a boring Chandler fight because it doesn’t exist.
Just ask Eddie Alvarez.
Chandler and Oliveira are both coming off losses and to be honest, I don’t think a whole lot has changed since their first encounter, both in gameplan and in skill. “Iron” is going to charge out of the gate like a man possessed and unleash hell, something that “Do Bronx” has historically struggled with, hence his awful first round at UFC 262. Like most of his fights, Chandler’s ability to win all depends on how well his opponent can capitalize on Chandler’s porous defense, an unfortunate byproduct of the “guns blazing” offense. With most fighters, I would be concerned about the effects of a three-year layoff. With Chandler, I don’t think it matters because of his insane training regimen that seemingly never stops. The Brazilian is probably the more refined fighter in terms of skill set, I just don’t know if post-championship Oliveira, now 35, will be able to survive the initial blitzkrieg.
Prediction: Chandler def. Oliveira by technical knockout
185 lbs.: Bo Nickal (6-0) vs. Paul “BearJew” Craig (17-8-1)
Paul Craig turns 37 at the end of the month, is coming off back-to-back losses in which he was finished in both fights, and has now dropped four of his last five dating back to summer 2022. And yet somehow “BearJew” is supposed to represent a higher rung on the 185-pound ladder for undefeated middleweight sensation Bo Nickal, a three-time NCAA Division I national champion and three-time Big Ten Conference champion out of Penn State. He’s also won all six of his professional MMA fights and finished all six opponents in the process — five within the first round.
I understand how the business works and I know it’s in the best interest of the promotion to take its time ... but c’mon, this is silly. If the sportsbooks have a fighter at -1100 on the moneyline then you can’t call it good matchmaking. In addition, there are plenty of names at the bottom half of the division Top 15 that would help land Nickal a spot on the coveted list. As you might imagine, most of Nickal’s offensive stats center around his wrestling. He currently averages 7.46 takedowns per fight, has 50-percent accuracy on his shots, and holds a 7.5 submission attempt average per 15 minutes of action.
Craig is a well-rounded fighter but does not have any particular skill set that I would consider to be exceptional. That said, he is one of the most exciting fighters on the roster, evidenced by eight post-fight performance bonuses. One of my concerns heading into this contest is Craig’s durability after a career that has lasted well over a decade with some uncomfortable knockout losses, like his 2017 destruction at the hands of light heavyweight contender Khalil Rountree Jr., or even his most recent knockout loss to Caio Borralho. Nickal is no Alex Pereira, but he does hit with power.
There’s not much to say about this showcase fight for Nickal. Brendan Allen was 2-2 in takedown attempts against Craig at UFC Vegas 82 and finished “Bearjew” by submission in the second round. Unless Nickal tries to make some kind of statement on the feet, you can expect a similar outcome this weekend at MSG.
Prediction: Nickal def. Craig by submission
125 lbs.: Viviane “Vivi” Araujo (12-6) vs. “Killer” Karine Silva (18-4)
With the flyweight trilogy between Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso finally behind us, it’s nice to have something new and exciting to talk about in the flyweight division. Fight fans were first introduced to Karine Silva on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in late 2021, where the Brazilian strangled Chinese bruiser Qihui Yan to capture a second-round submission. In the three years following that breakout performance, Silva has risen through the 125-pound ranks with little resistance, logging four straight wins and ending three of her opponents by way of submission. Silva’s most recent performance came by way of unanimous decision victory over ranked rival Ariane Lipski, a performance good enough to land “Killer” at No. 11 in the official flyweight rankings — two spots behind Viviane Araujo.
Araujo has been a mainstay of the flyweight division for the past five years but continues to struggle with consistency. Across a span of 11 fights inside the Octagon, “Vivi” has managed a mediocre record of 6-5, losing all five contests by way of unanimous decision. Araujo is good everywhere and great nowhere but has enough experience and grit to make this a compelling fight. Some of her previous opponents include ex-champion Alexa Grasso and former title challengers Jessica Eye and Jennifer Maia, among others. My biggest issue is the fact that Araujo turns 38 before the end of the month and will be going up against a 30 year-old phenom in her competitive prime. I don’t know if Silva will be able to lock up a submission against the crafty veteran, but I do expect her to control all three rounds, good enough for a clean sweep on the judges’ scorecards.
Prediction: Silva def. Araujo by decision
165 lbs.: Mauricio Ruffy (10-1) vs. James “Goku” Llontop (14-4)
It was a bit surprising to hear that UFC 309 would open the PPV card with a battle of lightweight prospects just a couple of bouts removed from their respective performances on Dana White’s “Contender Series” in 2023. James Llontop graduated Week 6 with a unanimous decision victory over Malik Lewis, while Mauricio Ruffy made a name for himself on Week 9 by planishing Raimond Magomedaliev. In the year that followed, Llontop dropped back-to-back losses to Chris Padilla and Viacheslav Borshchev, somehow surviving the typical “lose your first two fights and get cut” strategy of UFC roster maintenance. As for Ruffy, he continued to shine with a first-round technical knockout win over Jamie Mullarkey at UFC 301 in Brazil. On paper, it would seem as though matchmakers were hoping to assemble a showcase fight for Ruffy, a theory backed by lopsided odds that favor the Brazilian at -900 on the moneyline.
Llontop is younger at 25 (Ruffy is 28) but has more overall fights; and yet somehow, Ruffy performs like the more seasoned combatant. Assuming the Brazilian doesn’t do anything stupid or get careless when he takes control of the fight, he should be able to close the show before the final bell. Then again, we don’t yet know the circumstances behind the change in weight, or which fighter was responsible for moving the bout to a catchweight of 165 pounds. For the purposes of this column, we’ll assume all things remain equal, which then defaults to respective skill sets. In that case, it’s hard to pick against Ruffy when you consider what both fighters have done thus far in their brief stints under the UFC banner.
Prediction: Ruffy def. Llontop by technical knockout
Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 309 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To check out the latest and greatest UFC 309: “Jones vs. Miocic” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here. For the updated and finalized UFC 309 fight card and PPV lineup click here.
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