Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to the pay-per-view (PPV) market for the upcoming UFC 305 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, headlined by the middleweight title fight between reigning 185-pound kingpin Dricus Du Plessis and former division titleholder Israel Adesanya. The action takes place this Sunday at RAC Arena in Perth, Western Australia, but airs Sat. night (Aug. 17) in most markets due to the considerable discrepancy in time zones.
Remember, you’ll need a subscription to ESPN+ (sign up here) to stream UFC 305.
Before we break down the five-fight PPV main card, which also features a flyweight co-headliner pitting Australian “Astro Boy” Steve Erceg opposite hard-hitting kiwi Kai Kara-France, be sure to take a closer look at the latest UFC 305 odds and a complete betting guide for the entire “Du Plessis vs. Adesanya” PPV lineup by clicking here. For a closer look at the “Du Plessis vs. Adesanya” headliner and why the outcome could affect three different weight classes, click here.
Let’s see what the main card has in store for us this weekend “Down Under.”
185 lbs.: UFC Middleweight Champion Dricus “Stillknocks” Du Plessis (21-2) vs. Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya (24-3)
Israel Adesanya makes his return to competition after nearly a year on the sidelines and to say those were tumultuous months would be putting it mildly. “The Last Stylebender” spent a good portion of that time on the injured list and then found himself in court for drunk driving. In addition, the man who beat him for the middleweight strap at UFC 293, Sean Strickland, went and dropped the title to Adesanya’s bitter rival, Dricus Du Plessis, at UFC 297. There's not much I can say about Adesanya that we don’t already know. He’s one of the greatest middleweight champions in history and evolved from one-dimensional kickboxer to well-rounded MMA fighter. Not that I expect him to be sinking in any omoplatas at UFC 305, but opponents who expect to rely on offensive wrestling to upset the middleweight apple cart are likely to be surprised on fight night.
Having said that, I would not have thought the run-and-gun style of Dricus Du Plessis, which is ugly in execution but wholly fascinating to watch, would be effective against a fleet-footed counter-striker like Adesanya ... right up until I watched Strickland bulldoze “The Last Stylebender” and knock him around for the better part of five rounds. I’m not sure how much of that success can be attributed to the gameplan of head coach Eric Nicksick but “Tarzan” was the one tasked with its execution — and you can bet Du Plessis and Co. have rewatched that fight ad nauseam ahead of UFC 305. At the same time, “Stillknocks” is not the striker that Strickland is, which has its advantages (as well its disadvantages) in five-round title fights. At age 30, Du Plessis is still young enough and fresh enough to go balls-to-the-wall (great song by Accept) for most of the fight, though he did run out of gas against Strickland in Toronto. That may give Adesanya the opportunity to take over in the championship rounds.
Assuming he lasts that long.
Adesanya, now 35, looked completely checked out against Strickland. Maybe it was lack of motivation, the accumulation of injuries, or the fact that he got dropped early in the fight. Whatever the case was, it seemed like “The Last Stylebender” wanted to be anywhere but inside the cage. If that happens at UFC 305 against a wrecking ball like Du Plessis, who beat many of the same opponents as Adesanya (Whittaker, Brunson, etc.), it’s going to be a short night for the former champ. However, if we get the Adesanya who treated Paulo Costa the way Anderson Silva treated Forrest Griffin, the belt is going back to City Kickboxing. We know what we’re going to get with Du Plessis, but we don't yet know what we’re getting when Adesanya returns, which makes this such a hard fight to predict. The Strickland loss is definitely concerning, but it was just one fight removed from Adesanya’s knockout win over Alex Pereira, which leads me to believe there’s still enough left in the tank to stop the rise of “Stillknocks.”
Prediction: Adesanya def. Du Plessis by decision
125 lbs.: Kai “Don’t Blink” Kara-France (24-11, 1 NC) vs. Steve “Astro Boy” Erceg (12-2)
Kai Kara-France has not competed in over a year and is coming off back-to-back losses to Brandon Moreno and Amir Albazi. Part of the delay can be attributed to a concussion suffered while training for his Manel Kape fight at UFC 293, a bout that went up in smoke when the kiwi was ruled medically unfit to compete. Now Kara-France is all patched up and ready to go and looking to regain some of the momentum he had back in early 2022, when he was ranked No. 2 in the flyweight division. “Don’t Blink” — a nickname he acquired by demonstrating knockout power not often seen at this weight class — is still hanging around the Top 5 and can probably get himself back in the 125-pound title hunt with a big performance this weekend in Perth. That said, Kara-France has struggled to stay consistent in recent years and will be facing an opponent who is the picture of consistency.
Steve Erceg migrated to UFC just over a year ago after capturing nine of 10 on the Australian circuit, then continued his wining ways with three straight victories inside the Octagon. That includes his second-round destruction of Matt Schnell at UFC Vegas 87, a performance that earned “Astro Boy” a title fight against current champion Alex Pantoja atop the UFC 301 PPV card in Brazil. As the bookies predicted, “The Cannibal” proved too much for the 29 year-old Aussie and Erceg dropped back down to No. 7 in the flyweight rankings. There’s not a lot to critique when it comes to Erceg’s skill set, he’s pretty solid in every department; offensively as well as defensively. This stands to be a fairly even matchup because both flyweights can hit for power while also pulling off sneaky submissions. The one knock on Kara-France is that he’s already into double digit losses, though I suppose you can counter that argument with his strength of schedule. Outside of Pantoja, Erceg just hasn’t fought that level of competition.
Kara-France is a proven commodity but I’m not crazy about his layoff, or his inability to win big fights when they matter most. The jury is still out when it comes to Erceg’s ceiling but I think he’s the fresher fighter in terms of durability. Look for a close fight that “Astro Boy” captures with a late finish.
Prediction: Erceg def. Kara-France by technical knockout
155 lbs.: Mateusz “Gamer” Gamrot (24-2, 1 NC) vs. Dan “The Hangman” Hooker (23-12)
UFC lightweight title challenger Arman Tsarukyan only has two losses under the UFC banner and one of them is to Mateusz Gamrot, which should give you an idea of what “Gamer” is capable of inside the Octagon. The 33 year-old Pole is the winner of three straight, including his lopsided UFC 299 victory over former 155-pound champion Rafael dos Anjos. Gamrot is currently ranked No. 5 in the division and recently broke into the Top 10 of the lightweight record books with 38 takedowns landed. That’s pretty much the bread-and-butter of his offense, racking up an impressive 5.28 takedowns per fight, though his accuracy is only 35 percent — which should tell you how often “Gamer” spams takedown attempts. That doesn’t mean Gamrot is a boring lay-and-pray’r, he’s got four performance bonuses in nine UFC fights, including two “Fight of the Night” honors.
Opponent Dan Hooker has the same number of bonuses (with his own pair of “Fight of the Night” payouts) but has been competing in UFC for well over a decade. “The Hangman” has been ranked as high as No. 5 in the division but is currently seated just outside the Top 10 at No. 11. Hooker appears to have returned to his winning ways, capturing back-to-back victories for the first time since 2020, which followed a dreadful two-year span where the 34 year-old kiwi was 1-4, getting finished in three of those four losses. Hooker is a well-rounded fighter with knockout power and boasts 18 finishes in 23 wins, 11 by knockout and seven by submission. His offensive wrestling helped lead him to victory over the likes of Nasrat Haqparast and Paul Felder, among others, but when faced with a superior wrestler like Jason Knight and Islam Makhachev, his takedown defense was rendered combat ineffective. I have a feeling that scenario plays out at UFC 305, as well.
I might give Hooker a more optimistic outlook in a five-round fight but Gamrot can go hard for 15 minutes without emptying his tank. That means “The Hangman” will constantly be on his back foot trying to avoid the takedown while hoping to land something of merit when the Pole comes charging in (a guillotine choke is not out of the question). The local fans are not gonna like it, but I expect Gamrot to steamroll Hooker for the better part of three rounds and wrestle his way to a clean sweep on all three scorecards.
Prediction: Gamrot def. Hooker by decision
265 lbs.: Tai “Bam Bam” Tuivasa (14-7) vs. Jairzinho “Bigi Boy” Rozenstruik (14-5)
Australian smashing machine Tai Tuivasa had an incredible two-year run from 2020-2022, where he racked up five straight wins with five consecutive knockouts, including his second-round destruction of Derrick Lewis as part of the UFC 271 PPV event in Houston. That hot streak was good enough to land “Bam Bam” at No. 3 in the heavyweight rankings and perhaps one victory away from a 265-pound title shot. That required him to defeat French phenom Ciryl Gane and ... he didn’t. In fact, Tuivasa has been winless since slaying “The Black Beast” in “The Lone Star State” and has now slipped all the way to No. 10 in the current heavyweight rankings. Part of the problem is that Tuivasa doesn’t really do anything inside the Octagon except plant his feet and drop bombs, which is great when they land and not-so-great when they don’t. “Bam Bam” has never landed a takedown in UFC competition and holds zero career submissions. Don’t expect either of those stats to change at UFC 305.
You can say the same exact thing about opponent Jairzinho Rozenstruik, who also boasts zero takedowns and zero submissions. A former kickboxer with victories over the likes of Benjamin Adegbuyi and Dennis Stolzenbach, the Surinamese striker migrated to UFC in early 2019 and quickly made a name for himself in the crowded heavyweight division, dispatching established veterans like Alistair Overeem and Junior dos Santos along the way. His one-dimensional offense is what kept him out of the Top 5 and “Bigi Boy” was easily thwarted by the wrestling of ground specialists like Curtis Blaydes and Jailton Almeida. He’ll be right at home this weekend in Perth and can throw whatever strikes he desires without the fear of getting taken down. For this contest, the combatant with the more durable chin is likely to prevail, unless Rozenstruik is able to control the distance and strike from range. Sounds great on paper, but I think Tuivasa, with the crowd screaming in his corner, is going to walk through “Bigi Boy’s” early offense and land something murderous, leading to the first post-fight Shoey in over two years.
Prediction: Tuivasa def. Rozenstruik by knockout
170 lbs.: Jingliang “The Leech” Li (19-8) vs. Carlos “The Nightmare” Prates (19-6)
A lot of people are surprised to learn that Jingliang Li has been fighting under the UFC banner for more than a decade and is not some up-and-coming whippersnapper ready to break out and announce himself. “The Leech” turned 36 back in March and despite having 10 years of experience inside the Octagon, the former Legend FC welterweight champion remains unranked at 170 pounds — and is looking to rebound from a decision loss to Daniel Rodriguez at UFC 279 last fall in Las Vegas. Li is a well-rounded fighter with knockout power but has yet to finish a fight by submission while competing for UFC, a streak that is unlikely to be snapped this weekend in Perth.
Carlos Prates will be competing on his 31st birthday when he takes the cage against Li at UFC 305. “The Nightmare” has been an exciting addition to the 170-pound roster after making a name for himself on Dana White’s “Contender Series” last summer. If you factor in his run on the regional circuit, Prates has captured nine in row with eight straight knockouts, including his first-round destruction of Charlie Radtke as part of the UFC Louisville lineup back in June. Like his fight night opponent, Prates has demonstrable success in the grappling department but prefers to stand-and-bang, which means we could be looking at an early candidate for “Knockout of the Night.”
If Li was going to do something special, he probably would have done it by now. At the same time, I don’t want to treat Prates like a shiny new toy based on his early success because “The Leech” represents a major step up in competition. Remember, this is the same crafty veteran who slept Santiago Ponzinibbio and Dhiego Lima and his hands can’t be overlooked. I just think we’re looking at a case of a younger fighter on his way up colliding with an older fighter on his way down. Fists are gonna fly early and often in this UFC 305 curtain jerker and when the smoke eventually clears, Li will find himself sleeping through “The Nightmare.”
Prediction: Prates def. Li by knockout
Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 305 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches at 6:30 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining undercard balance on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC 305: “Du Plessis vs. Adesanya” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here. For the updated and finalized UFC 305 fight card and PPV lineup click here.
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