UFC 304 is scheduled for this Sat. night (July 27, 2024) at Co-op Live in Manchester, England, and since the good ol’ U.S. of A. won the Revolutionary War, we get to call the shots. That means local fans (and UFC 304 fighters) will be pulling an all nighter to accommodate the pay-per-view (PPV) start time of 10 p.m. ET here in the states.
Sorry, Curtis.
UFC 304 will be headlined by the welterweight title fight pitting reigning 170-pound champion, Leon Edwards, against No. 2-ranked contender Belal Muhammad. In the UFC 304 co-main event, Tom Aspinall defends the interim heavyweight title opposite Curtis Blaydes; which like the main event, is a rematch from a prior contest that ended prematurely.
Local hero Paddy Pimblett also competes at UFC 304 against “King” Green.
Before we take a closer look at the UFC 304 PPV main card, which also features the middleweight collision between Christian Leroy Duncan and Gregory Rodrigues, as well as the featherweight fracas pitting Arnold Allen against Giga Chikadze, get a complete breakdown of all the UFC 304 odds and betting lines HERE.
Let's talk shop.
170 lbs.: UFC Welterweight Champion Leon “Rocky” Edwards (22-3, 1 NC) vs. Belal “Remember the Name” Muhammad (23-3, 1 NC)
Leon Edwards is appearing in his fourth straight title fight and third straight title defense against ... another wrestler. I can’t blame the matchmakers for that, it just happens to be the way the 170-pound division shakes out. You can argue that Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington are the best of the bunch, at least in terms of wrestling, and Belal Muhammad is not far behind, statistically speaking. He doesn’t share their collegiate credentials but “Remember the Name” has 34 takedowns in his UFC career and sports the second best takedown defense (93.3%) in the history of the division. Edwards already disposed of Usman (twice) and Covington despite being the betting underdog and will finally hold the favorite line at -260 against +210 for Muhammad. Edwards has gone 13 straight fights without a loss and does an outstanding job of mixing his wrestling with his striking. He’s also got championship cardio and comes from a strong gym at Team Renegade in Birmingham.
Simply put, he’s the total package.
Muhammad has been equally impressive over the last several years, shaking off a decision loss to Geoff Neal in early 2019 to rack up nine wins with one “No Contest” — the infamous eye poke of doom against Edwards at UFC Vegas 21. The one knock against Muhammad during that span is his inability to finish fights, going to the judges’ scorecards in 17 of his 23 wins. That said, his destruction of Sean Brady at UFC 280 proved that opponents need to remember the hands, as well as the name. To be fair, Edwards has not exactly been a finishing machine himself, going the distance in six of his last seven fights. I don’t think it’s a tremendous reach to suggest we’re in for another decision at UFC 304 and that will make wrestling even more important, simply because takedowns are weighed so heavily when scoring fights. Edwards has solid takedown defense and will be fighting from the southpaw stance, while also boasting a three-inch advantage in height along with a two-inch advantage in reach. That could pose a problem for Muhammad, who may get pieced up looking to get in close for the takedown.
Muhammad has been labeled boring on more than one occasion but regardless of whether or not you like his style, it’s effective and wins fights. I’m not sure it wins this one, however, because Edwards has proven he can withstand the division’s best wrestlers and let’s face it, he’s a much better striker than Muhammad. “Remember the Name” will certainly have his moments throughout the fight, I just don't think they’ll be impressive enough to sway the cageside judges.
Prediction: Edwards def. Muhammad by decision
265 lbs.: UFC Interim Heavyweight Champion Tom “Honey Badger” Aspinall (14-3) vs. Curtis “Razor” Blaydes (18-4, 1 NC)
UFC interim heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall will do something rarely seen these days and that’s defend the substitute strap. Probably because the promotion is trying to sell tickets in Manchester and Aspinall is one of the most popular MMA fighters in the UK. It also helps that UFC CEO Dana White is hellbent on booking Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic for the promotion’s return to Madison Square Garden in November, so Aspinall would have been out of action for well over a year without the UFC 304 co-main event. “Honey Badger” was able to capture the interim title by clocking and dropping Russian monster Sergei Pavlovich at UFC 295, a win that lost a little bit of its luster when Pavlovich followed that up with a lopsided loss to Alexander Volkov, especially considering how easily he was outboxed. That doesn’t take anything away from Aspinall, who continues to terrorize the heavyweight division with both his size and his skills. The hard-hitting Brit will coast in at -355, leaving Curtis Blaydes the +280 underdog for their five-round affair.
That seems a little high when you consider that Blaydes will test Aspinall in ways that no other heavyweight has, because no other heavyweight boasts “Razor’s” wrestling credentials. You can argue that Aspinall has 100-percent takedown defense — which sounds great on paper — but he’s only seen two takedown attempts in eight fights with UFC. The counter to that is Blaydes was knocked out by four heavy hitters inside the Octagon, including Pavlovich and aging “Beast” Derrick Lewis. In addition, Blaydes is not a competent striker, at least when talking about Top 5 title contenders (Blaydes is ranked three spots below Aspinall at No. 4). Wrestling is a much different experience when you have a 6’4”, 250-pound heavyweight barreling down on you at top speed. Is that enough to pick “Razor” for the upset? Probably not, but I don’t think Aspinall can just settle for cruise control, either.
At 31, Aspinall is competing in his athletic prime and appears to be firing on all cylinders. With a full camp and the hometown crowd in his corner, I don’t see a path to victory for Blaydes. He can certainly grind things to a halt with his wrestling, but the idea that “Razor” can go 25 minutes without eating a solid shot from Aspinall seems remote. If and when said shot does land, Blaydes is likely to fold up faster than George Jetson’s briefcase.
Prediction: Aspinall def. Blaydes by knockout
155 lbs.: Bobby “King” Green (32-15-1, 1 NC) vs. Paddy “The Baddy” Pimblett (21-3)
Paddy Pimblett started off with a bang, racking up four wins in just 15 months under the UFC umbrella, which includes three fights in 2022. Then “The Baddy” competed just once in 2023 and has yet to fight at all in 2024, with a sizable portion of that layoff being attributed to an ankle injury suffered at UFC 282. Now the scouser is back in his hometown against a ranked opponent, though I’m not sure Bobby Green is a tremendous leap over previous foes like Jared Gordon and Tony Ferguson because “King” has 15 losses on his record and has been finished seven times. He also turns 38 in September, making him nearly nine years older than Pimblett with a lot more miles on the tires. That said, Green remains a -120 betting favorite on the moneyline against +100 for Pimblett, who may have been gifted a decision win over Gordon before outpointing a shopworn Tony Ferguson.
It hasn’t been all wine and roses for Green, either, though his finish against Grant Dawson proved the newly-crowned “King” can still hit the long ball, giving him double-digit knockouts in the twilight of his career. Considering how often Pimblett gets into trouble with his brawl-for-all offense, this kinda feels like Green’s fight to lose. I also like that he’s coming off a decision victory over Jim Miller at UFC 300, a composed performance on the big stage that could give him some extra momentum heading into enemy territory. Like so many other fights on this card, we have a pair of lightweights who love to bang but can also mix it up on the ground, though something tells me their respective (and sizable) egos will keep this fight on the feet. I do wish this fight was five rounds atop a “Fight Night” event because I think we would be more likely to get a finish.
Green is not without his issues, one of which is consistency, but I have yet to be impressed by anything Pimblett has done inside the Octagon and his level of competition has been mediocre, at best. Assuming Green doesn’t make a careless mistake, he should be in control of this fight from start to finish, though be on the lookout for a late rally from “The Baddy” just to give us something to argue about on Sunday morning.
Prediction: Green def. Pimblett by decision
185 lbs.: Christian Leroy “CLD” Duncan (10-1) vs. Gregory “Robocop” Rodrigues (15-5)
Christian Leroy Duncan has just four fights under the UFC banner and has yet to break into the Top 15 of the middleweight division. At 28 years old, Duncan is an exciting young-ish prospect with an impressive highlight reel, which includes his back-to-back technical knockout wins over Denis Tiuliulin and Claudio Ribeiro. I’m not sure those performances were enough to warrant a spot on a PPV main card, but Duncan hails from Gloucester and this is an English event, so there you go. It also helps that he’s fighting a violent knockout artist so regardless of name value, this contest is likely to end with smelling salts. I think that’s what I like most about this matchup, it pits Duncan against an opponent who is equally dangerous in the pocket. “CLD” made his debut at UFC 286 in London and admitted to feeding off the crowd, something that will once again come into play at UFC 304. That may have contributed to his -135 betting line against +115 for Gregory Rodrigues.
The power-punching Brazilian has been in eight fights under the UFC banner with six of them ending by way of knockout. “Robocop” already has three post-fight performance bonuses to his credit, worth a cool $50,000 apiece and will undoubtedly be looking for a fourth against Duncan. For tomorrow night’s contest, Rodrigues will have a one-inch advantage in height but give up a whopping four inches in reach. Probably not a statistic to be proud of when facing an aggressive middleweight hellbent on throwing bombs. Fortunately for Rodrigues, he’s a competent offensive wrestler with double-digit takedowns to his credit — and Duncan lost the only fight in which he was taken down (Armen Petrosyan). Whether or not “Robocop” can rattle off a few takedowns before getting creamed remains to be seen, but I have a feeling he’ll also be looking for the one-hitter quitter.
This is a difficult fight to predict because it’s really just two guys swinging for the fences until somebody gets slumped. We haven’t seen enough from Duncan to make him the runaway favorite and Rodrigues has served his fair share of heads on a platter. I think with all else being equal, I’m leaning toward the younger, more dynamic “CLD” who will likely be supercharged by the Manchester united. A first-round finish would not surprise me.
Prediction: Duncan def. Rodrigues by knockout
145 lbs.: “Almighty” Arnold Allen (19-3) vs. Giga “Ninja” Chikadze (15-3)
Arnold Allen is sitting just outside the featherweight Top 5, ranked No. 6 in the division after dropping back-to-back fights to Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev. The former is one of the greatest 145-pound champions in history and the latter is undefeated in his professional MMA career at 18-0, so I’m not sure we can get too crazy over those defeats — both of which came by way of decision. Those performances did, however, prove Allen was not yet ready to challenge for a world title and if the 30 year-old Englishman wants to establish himself as a future contender, he’s going to need a big performance this weekend in Manchester. “Almighty” is one of those new-school combatants who can do everything — and do it well — mixing up takedowns and strikes as the situation calls for it. His transitions will likely determine his success at UFC 304 against a dangerous striker with something to prove.
Giga Chikadze seemed to be in cruise control by the end of 2021, racking up three straight knockouts over some pretty tough competition. That includes his destruction of fellow striker Edson Barboza at UFC Vegas 35, a performance that landed “Ninja” in the Top 10 of the division. Unfortunately, the hard-hitting Georgian fell in love with himself and started comparing his fights to The Matrix movies, which led to an absolute brutal beating and subsequent head injury against Boston boxer Calvin Kattar, along with a lengthy medical suspension from Nevada State Athletic Commission (NSAC). Chikadze would battle injuries before eventually returning against Alex Caceres at UFC Singapore, picking up a unanimous decision victory while holding steady at No. 10 in the featherweight rankings. “Ninja” was a regular on the kickboxing circuit and frequently competed for Glory World Series, hovering around the .500 mark before transitioning to MMA where he employs much of the same style.
Allen is the -250 betting favorite against +205 for Chikadze, mostly because “Almighty” has more ways to win. There’s always the chance he gets caught by something crafty from his Georgian foe, but Allen has good enough standup to stay competitive on the feet until the desire (or need) arises to take their fight to the floor. “Ninja” is no slouch on the ground and should make this a competitive fight, I just think Allen will spend most of their three-round fight disrupting Chikadze’s rhythm, which in turn will prevent him from settling in and finding his striking range. I don’t expect a finish, but I do think Allen will have a commanding lead by the time this contest goes to the judges’ scorecards.
Prediction: Allen def. Chikadze by decision
Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 304 fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining undercard balance on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC 304: “Edwards vs. Muhammad 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here. For the updated and finalized UFC 304 fight card and PPV lineup click here.
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