Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will return to the pay-per-view (PPV) market just three weeks after the incredible UFC 300 extravaganza, so expectations for this event will undoubedtly be lowered, but it’s also worth mentioning that UFC 301 will be headlined by the five-round title fighting pitting current 125-pound champion Alexandre Pantoja against No. 10-ranked flyweight contender Steve Erceg.
Why does that matter?
Because everyone hates flyweights because they fail to move the needle and don’t get PPV points. The good news is, at least from a live gate perspective, is that local fans will turn out to support Pantoja, as well as former UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo. “Junior” returns to 135-pounds to throw hands with streaking bantamweight contender Jonathan Martinez in the UFC 301 co-main event.
The action takes place this Sat. night (May 4, 2024) inside Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Also getting work done this weekend in Rio is former light heavyweight title challenger Anthony Smith, who collides with undefeated power puncher Vitor Petrino. In addition, former welterweight bruiser and current dance phenom Michel Pereira remains at middleweight to battle late replacement Ihor Potieria, not long after Paul Craig and Caio Borralho get things started at 185 pounds.
Let’s take a look at UFC 301’s five-fight PPV main card below.
125 lbs.: UFC Flyweight Champion Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja (27-5) vs. Steve “Astro Boy” Erceg (12-1)
Latest Betonline betting lines: Pantoja (-185) | Erceg (+154)
It’s kind of jarring to think of how different the UFC flyweight division was at the beginning of 2023 compared to the beginning of 2024. In less than a year, Brandon Moreno coughed up the flyweight crown and took a leave of absence, not long after Deiveson Figueiredo left the division altogether to try his luck at bantamweight. That happened just a few weeks after Top 5 contender Askar Askarov asked for (and was granted) his release from the promotion. While all of this was taking place, Steve Erceg was fighting Soichiro Hirai at Eternal MMA in Western Australia. Now he’s ranked No. 10 in the world and competing for a UFC title against Alexandre Pantoja.
In its current form, you can argue that Pantoja is close to cleaning out the flyweight division. In addition to toppling Moreno for the 125-pound strap, “The Cannibal” has already disposed of Manel Kape, Alex Perez, and Brandon Royval. He did lose to Figueiredo and Askarov; but hey, they are no longer UFC flyweights so it doesn’t matter. Amir Albazi and Muhammad Mokaev are lurking in the shadows and will no doubt have their eyes on the UFC 301 headliner this weekend in Rio.
It’s hard to pick against Pantoja considering what he’s done thus far in the division. “The Cannibal” is a proven commodity against some of the biggest names at 125 pounds and just as importantly, has established his durability when the fists start flying. He hasn’t been perfect, at least in terms of wins and losses, but that’s what happens when you consistently fight the best of the best — something Erceg has yet to do in the 15 months he’s been competing inside the Octagon. You can argue that “Astro Boy” already has two wins over ranked opponents — Matt Schnell and David Dvorak — but neither fighter has a winning record in UFC and are only ranked because the promotion had to scrounge up 15 names to fill up the flyweight chart (furthering my argument that we should limit the rankings to 10).
Erceg is talented, his fights have proven that, and he’s a well-rounded combatant who can present problems for a smaller opponent like Pantoja. That said, I haven’t seen enough from the Aussie to believe he can handle the more experienced champion. Especially one like “The Cannibal,” who thrives in all-out wars. Barring a silly mistake that gets him guillotined, expect Pantoja to overwhelm “Astro Boy” and close the show early.
Prediction: Pantoja def. Erceg by technical knockout
135 lbs.: Jose “Junior” Aldo (31-8) vs. Jonathan “Dragon” Martinez (19-4)
Latest Betonline betting lines: Aldo (+120) | Martinez (-142)
Jose Aldo, like many fighters in the twilight of their career, can’t seem to figure out what he wants or where he belongs. He probably doesn’t want to fight anymore, which is why he tried retiring, but then doesn’t know what else to do with himself. Or maybe he got bored and missed the spotlight; only “Junior” knows for sure, but he’s made it quite clear over the years that his time inside the cage is reaching its expiration date. I’m sure a UFC payday, along with the thrill of fighting in front of an arena full of screaming Brazilian fans, was an easy sell from matchmakers — but he certainly won’t get an easy fight. Not to mention, the former UFC featherweight champion turns 38 in just a few months and hasn't competed in nearly two years.
It’s hard to say what version of Aldo we’ll get on fight night. His last performance was a decision loss to Merab Dvalishvili, but this was long before we knew what “The Machine” was capable of and to his credit, “Junior” stuffed all 16 takedown attempts. To his discredit, he was outstruck by a 5’6” wrestler with a 68” reach. Prior to that, Aldo rattled off three straight decision wins over some pretty tough veterans, including Pedro Munhoz and Marlon Vera. My biggest concern heading into UFC 301 will be the Brazilian’s cardio, which was never great to begin with, but certainly an improvement from his featherweight days.
Jonathan Martinez was a middling bantamweight who struggled to stay consistent when he first hooked up with UFC, putting together a 4-3 record and looking fairly average in the process. I don’t know what he did to finally turn the corner, perhaps he evolved as a fighter and settled into his prime, but ever since his knockout loss to Davey Grant at UFC Vegas 21, Martinez has been nothing short of unstoppable. Over the last three years, the 30 year-old “Dragon” has racked up six straight wins, ending Said Nurmagomedov’s winning streak and stopping both Cub Swanson and Adrain Yanez with punishing leg kicks. Martinez outstruck nine of his 10 opponents in victories under the UFC banner and the one fighter to land a higher volume (Nurmagomedov), Martinez was far more accurate — by a considerable margin.
That could be the deciding factor at UFC 301. Aldo is a tremendous striker but sometimes struggles to put his foot on the gas, like the time he fought Vera and only managed a paltry 44 significant strikes across three rounds of action. We also have to accept the fact that Aldo is not the speed demon he used to be, and is likely to have trouble finding his timing early in the fight. A win for “Junior” would be a nice bonus for hometown fans and let’s be honest, who doesn’t love nostalgia? I just think Martinez is dialed in and quite frankly, the superior fighter at this stage of their respective careers.
Prediction: Martinez def. Aldo by technical knockout
205 lbs.: Anthony “Lionheart” Smith (37-19) vs. “Merciless” Vitor Petrino (11-0)
Latest Betonline betting lines: Smith (+425) | Petrino (-575)
Anthony Smith spent the last six months attempting to talk himself into a title fight against reigning 205-pound champion Alex Pereira. Trying to create buzz among the MMA fanbase, which in turn can influence matchmakers looking to sell tickets and PPV buys, is common among fighters unafraid to exploit their platform for advancement. But let’s also recognize that “Lionheart” lost three of his last four and got smashed into a million pieces by light heavyweight “War Horse” Khalil Rountree Jr. at UFC Vegas 83. Watching Smith campaign for “Poatan” like he’s been ripping through the 205-pound ranks is embarrassing ... and a little delusional.
The most impressive thing Smith has done over the last five years is lose to then-champion Jon Jones at UFC 235. The former middleweight is well spoken, appears regularly as a desk analyst during UFC events, and co-hosts a podcast with retired UFC fighter Michael Bisping. His visibility has kept him relevant, not his performances inside the cage. Let’s not forget that Smith has 19 losses and has been finished 15 times in his professional career. The fact that he’s not wearing adult diapers and eating dinner through a straw is nothing short of a miracle.
After steamrolling the competition on the local circuit, mostly in and around Curitiba, Brazil, Vitor Petrino got his chance to shine on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in late 2022. A UFC contract soon followed, thanks to his obliteration of fellow Brazilian bruiser Rodolfo Bellato, and Petrino wasted little time in making his mark. “Merciless” is currently 4-0 under the UFC banner with two finishes and is coming off a commanding performance against Tyson Pedro at UFC Vegas 87 just last month. The unranked Brazilian will give up two inches in height to “Lionheart” but compensates with a one-inch reach advantage.
I would expect Smith to start shooting for takedowns once the bombs begin dropping in Rio, I’m just not sure how effective he’ll be against an opponent who has already racked up 15 takedowns in just four trips to the Octagon. Petrino is also 11 years younger than Smith at 26 and has far less wear-and-tear on his body. The odds swing heavily in favor of the Brazilian and we haven’t seen much from Smith over the last few years to challenge that line. To his credit, Smith is rarely in a boring fight (evidenced by seven post-fight performance bonuses) so we should get plenty of action for however long this lasts.
Not long, if Petrino fights true to form.
Prediction: Petrino def. Smith by technical knockout
185 lbs.: Michel “Demolidor” Pereira (30-11, 2 NC) vs. Ihor “The Duelist” Potieria (20-5)
Latest Betonline betting lines: Pereira (-625) | Potieria (+455)
Michel Pereira was a giant welterweight who is finally at middleweight where he belongs, thanks to his struggles on the scale. It’s unfortunate that UFC CEO Dana White had to threaten “Demolidor” in order to get him to finally make the change, because I’m pretty sure the Brazilian would already be ranked in the Top 15 by now.
Still just 30 years old, Pereira has a chance to make some noise at 185 pounds and already demonstrated how dangerous he can be, thanks to back-to-back wins — and back-to-back finishes — over Andre Petrovski (UFC Vegas 81) and Michal Oleksiejczuk (UFC 299). Unfortunately he won’t be tested here, as Ihor Potieria is stepping in on short-notice for the injured Makhmud Muradov. Even with a full camp, I’m not sure “The Duelist” would be anyone’s pick.
Potieria is a former light heavyweight and will have a size advantage on fight night, holding two-inch advantages in both height and reach. The change in weight classes appears to have paid off, based on his unanimous decision victory over up-and-coming prospect Robert Bryczek at UFC Vegas 86. That performance was good enough to snap a two-fight losing streak and pull Potieria’s record to 2-3 inside the Octagon, though I think UFC CEO Dana White had bigger plans for the Ukrainian when he signed him from “Contender Series” back in late 2021. The good news is that Potieria is still just 27 years-old and may have yet to reach his fighting prime. How well he performs against Pereira is likely to answer that question.
Every “Demolidor” fight is an exercise in violence and it’s up to “The Duelist” to maintain his composure and not get sucked into a firefight. I know that’s easier said than done from outside the cage, but judging by his “Fight of the Night” loss against Rodolfo Bellato at UFC Austin, I expect Potieria to fight fire with fire. And just like the Metallica song, the ending is near. A first-round finish would not surprise me.
Prediction: Pereira def. Potieria by technical knockout
185 lbs.: Paul “Bear Jew” Craig (17-7-1) vs. Caio “The Natural” Borralho (15-1, 1 NC)
Latest Betonline betting lines: Craig (+470) | Borralho (-650)
Paul Craig turns 37 this fall and has been competing for UFC since late 2016, a span of nearly eight years across 17 fights for a UFC record of 9-7-1, with includes his submission loss to Brendan Allen at UFC Vegas 82 just a few months back. I don’t think it’s outrageous to suggest that if Craig was going to make a run at the division title he probably would have done it by now; meaning, we’ve already seen the best version of “Bear Jew” and probably won’t get any surprises on fight night.
That doesn’t make the middleweight Scot an easy out, he’s got a dangerous submission game and solid offensive wrestling. More importantly, at least from a fan’s perspective, is that Craig has eight post-fight performance bonuses, worth a combined $400,000. That means win or lose, we’re likely to get an exciting fight, or at least have the Coatbridge crusher go out on his shield. There’s not much more we can ask from a main card fighter so this should be a fun scrap, for however long it lasts.
Caio Borralho put together an impressive run on the regional circuit fighting for promotions like Future FC and Arena Combat in his native Brazil before earning a shot at UFC stardom on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in Sept. 2021. A decision victory over Aaron Jeffery was not enough to score a UFC contract; however, “The Natural” was invited back for another shot the following month, where Borralho sealed the deal with a violent, first-round finish over Jesse Murray.
The Brazilian would compete five times over the next two years and return a perfect UFC record of 5-0 with one submission finish, good enough for “Performance of the Night” at UFC Vegas 72. Like Craig, the 31 year-old Borralho does a good job of implementing his wrestling to control the pace of his fights and keep leg kicks at bay, though he didn't need any wrestling to outpoint Abus Magomedov at UFC São Paulo.
The bookies have Borralho as the sizable favorite, which has just as much to do with the decline of Craig as it does the rise of “The Natural,” though I wouldn’t be so quick to count “Bear Jew” out, who holds considerable advantages in both height and reach. The threat of an upset looms large, but the safe pick is Borralho by stoppage. He’s younger, faster, has much cleaner striking and enough wrestling to neutralize his fight night foe, even with his glaring size discrepancy.
Prediction: Borralho def. Craig by technical knockout
