Tracking Betting Line Shifts for UFC 315: Belal vs. Jack Della

UFC 315 is live this weekend (Sat., May 10, 2025). Here’s a look at all the betting line movements for Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena and much more.

UFC 315 takes place this weekend (Sat., May 10, 2025) inside Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event sees UFC’s Welterweight title on the line with Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena.

UFC 315’s co-main event is Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot for Shevchenko’s UFC Flyweight title.

The main card also has Jose Aldo vs. Aimann Zahabi, Benoit Saint Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec (not Joel Alvarez) and Alexa Grasso vs. Natalia Silva.

UFC 315’s “Prelims” are headlined by Mike Malott vs. Charles Radtke. The undercard also has Jessica Andrade vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius and Modestas Bukauskas vs. Ion Cutelaba.

I’ve been watching the lines (see them here) for all the fights on UFC 315 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below, you’ll find all the line movement info since the odds were released (per Best Fight Odds).

UFC 315 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Belal Muhammad (-188 +6.3%) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (+152 -9.5%)

Muhammad opened as the -230 favorite for this fight, with Della Maddalena at +176. The public think this fight is a little closer than that and these lines have started to creep toward each other. If you like the challenger in this match-up, get on him now before that shrinks anymore. If you like the champion, wait until fight time and you might get him around -150.

I agree with the public that this a close one and I’m really on the fence about it. I picked Della Maddalena with the point spread in my earlier betting post.

This line is an odd one for Muhammad. He’s been the public’s favorite underdog for awhile now. Vegas keeps giving him opening lines at plus money and the public keep betting those down, though not enough to make him a favorite.

Against Leon Edwards he opened at +240 and closed at +225. Against Gilbert Burns, he opened at +140 and closed at +135. Against Vicente Luque he opened at +180 and closed at +170 and against Stephen Thompson he opened at +210 and closed at +195. Muhammad, of course, won all these fights.

The last time he opened as a favorite was against Sean Brady. He opened at -225 and the public faded him enough to make him close at +126. Muhammad then went out and KO’d Brady (I don’t think that happens again if they rematch, though).

The public have a good track record with Della Maddalena. He opened at +105 when he fought Burns, but then closed at -155. He then brutalized Burns in a way we’d never seen before. The public were also right with his fight with Kevin Holland, where he opened at +136 and closed at -155.

The public have been right on most Muhammad and Della Maddalena fights. And they are projecting a close one here. Might be worth avoiding a winner and instead looking at some round props for this one.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Valentina Shevchenko (+107 +6.5%) vs. Manon Fiorot (-130 -4.8%)

Shevchenko opened at -107 for the first title defense of her latest reign as UFC Flyweight champ. The line has changed a little, giving her slightly plus odds. On May 5, her line jumped up to +128 and then sharply came back down.

Shevchenko also opened at -107 for her last fight with Alexa Grasso. She closed at +110 for that fight, which she then totally dominated.

Fiorot, meanwhile, opened at -117 for this fight. She’s got some public backing here, but it’s not dramatic.

The public, and Vegas, were wrong before her victory over Erin Blanchfield. For that fight she opened at +120 and closed at +180.

The public were wrong about her before her win over Rose Namajunas, too. She opened at -200 for that fight, but her line came up to -185.

This feels like another fight that will be very close and will very likely go the distance. I like Shevchenko and her takedowns, personally.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Jose Aldo (-202 -2.5%) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+165 +9.4%)

The Featherweight G.O.A.T. Aldo opened -188 and has had public backing, bring that line down to -202. Something similar happened in his last fight with Mario Bautista, where he opened at +130 and closed at +110. Aldo lost that fight by split decision (though, I scored it for the King of Rio).

Before that public were mostly fading Aldo. He opened at -107 against Jonathan Martinez and closed at +150. He then took a pretty comfortable decision over Martinez, in Rio. That was his first fight back since his stint in boxing. Prior to all that, he opened as a -170 favorite to Merab Dvalishvili. The public rightly thought that was off, though. They forced that line to close at +145 before the future champ, Dvalishvili, for the win.

Zahabi opened at +140 for this bout. But, his odds are lengthening, despite this fight being in his backyard. Zahabi has seen some pretty wild swings on his betting lines lately.

He opened at +115 versus Pedro Munhoz. But, that line closed at -188 (a massive 45.9% swing). Zahabi then beat Munhoz for the best win of his career.

Before that, Zahabi saw his line against Javid Basharat balloon from +164 to +700. Zahabi won that by decision, possibly ‘fraud checking’ the previous undefeated Afghan (who would then get lit up by Ricky Simon).

Another big swing with Zahabi was before his fight with Aoriqileng. He opened at +190 for that and closed at +125 (42.9 percent swing). He then finished Aoriqileng in the first round.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Alexa Grasso (+207 +18.6%) vs. Natalia Silva (-257 -10.8%)

I really think this line needs to be a lot closer than it is. Vegas thought so, too, opening with Grasso at +150 and Silva at -186. However, the public has different ideas. Their bets have Grasso as a pretty decent-sized underdog now.

That’s the opposite of what they did in her last fight, as champion versus Valentina Shevchenko — she opened at -117 there and closed at -125.

Silva’s line had been slowly shortening until, on May 3, it fell off a cliff into the territory we find it at now. This shortening is pretty standard for her. Before her win over Jessica Andrade her line shifted from -148 to -275. And before her win over Viviane Araujo her line shortened from -275 to -320.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC

Benoit Saint Denis (-1089 +0.8%) vs. Kyle Prepolec (+686 +4.6%)

Given that this is a short notice fight there hasn’t been much time for it to change much.

There has been some up-and-down action on Prepolec’s line, though. He opened at +650 and went down to +625 immediately. Then he spiked at +725 before dropping to +660 and back to where it is now.

That might be a sign that a few folks have put some bets down on the big underdog (probably just because he’s a big underdog).

UFC 315 Late ‘Prelims’ Line Movement

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Mike Malott (-168 +6%) vs. Charles Radtke (+137 -5.5%)

The public think this fight will be closer than Vegas initially forecast. Malott opened at -200 and Radtke opened at +150.

This is the first time Malott’s line has moved this way in UFC. Against Trevin Giles, Neil Magny and Adam Fugitt his line has shortened, though not by a dramatic amount. The public were right on all those except the Magny fight, which Magny won via late comeback technical knockout.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Jessica Andrade (+248 +13.8%) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (-320 -4%)

Andrade is being faded, big time, by the public. She opened at +200 for this fight with Jasudavicius, but that is now rising. That’s a pretty familiar pattern for Andrade. The public have faded her in her recent fights with Natalia Silva, Marina Rodriguez, Mackenzie Dern and Tatiana Suarez. They were only right to do that in the Silva and Suarez fights.

Jasudavicius opened at -275 for this fight. In her last fight, with Mayra Bueno Silva, she had a big shift in her line. She opened at +100 for that and closed at -245. She then took a convincing win over Bueno Silva.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Modestas Bukauskas (-104 +2.7%) vs. Ion Cutelaba (-117 +1.2%)

Vegas has this pegged as a close fight and the public is fine with that. I agree, too. I think there’s going to be a finish here, though. I think Bukauskas will be the hammer and Cutelaba the nail. However, Cutelaba has showed a few times now that you can never count him out of a fight.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Navajo Stirling (-322 -6.8%) vs. Ivan Erslan (+260 +21%)

Erslan is one of the biggest movers at UFC 315. His line has skyrocketed from +175. This signals that the public really fancy Stirling in this fight. They did in Stirling’s last fight, too, taking his opening line of -450 against Tuco Tokkos and turning it into -800. Stirling then won a pretty ho-hum decision in what was his proper UFC debut.

UFC 315 Early ‘Prelims’ Line Movement

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Marc-Andre Barriault (-154 -1.1%) vs. Bruno Silva (+128 +7.9%)

This is a close fight between two guys who really need a win. Vegas has Barriault as the slight favorite over Silva and the public seem mostly fine with that. The public faded Barriault in his last two fights, both of which ended with him in the shadow realm.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Daniel Santos (+109 +18.7%) vs. Jeong Yeong Lee (-124 -22.9%)

This is our only flip on the card!

Santos opened at -143, but you can now get him at plus money, while Lee opened at +116 for this one. Santos has been out a while and has had fights fall through on an Ian McCall level in his UFC career.

In his last fight, against Johnny Munoz Jr., he opened at +155, but the public hammered his line. He ended up closing at -200 (76.3% swing!). Santos then won a decision. That was back in 2023, though.

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Brad Katona (+129 -4.8%) vs. Bekzat Almakhan (-158 +6.2%)

This line hasn’t changed much. The public are more or less fine with Katona being the slight underdog in his home country. Almakhan was a big underdog in his last fight, his debut opposite Umar Nurmagomedov.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

UFC 315 Biggest Line Movements

TLDR: Here are the biggest line movements at UFC 314:

• Jeong Yeong Lee: From +116 underdog to -124 favorite (-22.9 percent) (B)
• Ivan Erslan: From +175 underdog to +248 underdog (+21 percent) (A)
• Daniel Santos: From -143 favorite to +109 underdog (+18.7 percent) (D)
• Alexa Grasso: From +150 underdog to +220 underdog (+18.6 percent) (A)
• Jessica Andrade: From +200 underdog to +248 underdog (+13.8 percent) (A)

Since I’ve been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.

A: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 5-25.

B: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 10-9.

C: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 1-6.

D: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 5-4.

E: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have shortened are 2-2.

F: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, though they remain at minus odds are 0-0.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

UFC 315 Best Underdogs Bets

There’s a lot of underdogs I like on this card. I’m picking both Della Maddaena and Shevchenko in the main and co-main. I’m more confident in my Shevchenko bet, though. Other underdogs I like the look of are Radtke, Silva and Katona.

Of those, I probably like Silva the most. I think he’s too durable for Barriault to put away.

Enough about me, though, which of these underdogs do you like the most?

Remember that Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 315 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 315: “Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

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