Top wagers, combinations, and selections for UFC 313 featuring Pereira vs. Ankalaev.

UFC 313 is live this weekend (Sat., Mar. 8, 2025), featuring a pay-per-view (PPV) main event of Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev for the UFC Light Heavyweight title. Checkout the odds for that title fight (and much more) right here!

UFC 313 is happening this weekend (Sat., Mar. 8, 2025) at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event features the ever-popular ‘Poatan’ Alex Pereira. He will be defending his UFC Light Heavyweight title against Magomed Ankalaev, a man many think will give him his toughest test to date.

UFC 313’s co-main event was supposed to feature the mouth-watering match-up of Justin Gaethje vs. Dan Hooker. However, a broken paw for the Hangman means Rafael Fiziev has been drafted in as a late notice replacement. Gaethje took a narrow decision over Fiziev back in 2023.

Making up the numbers on the main card, we’ve got Jalin Turner vs. Ignacio Bahamondes, Amanda Lemos vs. Iasmin Lucindo and King Green vs. Mauricio Ruffy.

The UFC 313 “Prelims” are headlined by Curtis Blaydes and newcomer Rizvan Kuniev. The Prelims will also host the undefeated Rei Tsuruya. He’s taking on the always fun Joshua Van.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC 313 Main Card Money Line Odds

Alex Pereira (-115) vs. Magomed Ankalaev (-105)

Alex Pereira has been speed running his UFC Hall of Fame career. He has fought six times in the last two years. That kind of busyness is unheard of for a UFC champion (and most UFC fighters in general). The soon to be 38 year-old clearly knows that time is not on his side and wants to bank as many PPV points before he hangs up his gloves.

Since losing to Israel Adesanya, via KO (see it here), in April, 2023, Pereira has won his last five fights. Most recently he turned away a very game Khalil Rountree Jr. with uppercuts in the fourth round (see those here).

Magomed Ankalaev has fought just three times since 2023, if you count his no contest against Johnny Walker. That fight ended due to an overreaction from a ringside physician (see it here). Ankalaev and Walker were given a make-up date and Ankalaev proved Walker has no business being in the cage with the elite of the division (see his KO win here). Since then Ankalaev beat Aleksandar Rakic via unanimous decision.

Ankalaev has rightly been singled out as a big threat to Pereira’s title reign due to his wrestling ability. He’s the best wrestler Pereira has ever faced, The only opponent who comes close, in that regard, is Jan Blachowicz. Blachowicz took Pereira down on three of eight attempts and banked over seven minutes of control time. That almost won him the fight (which was ruled a split decision in favor of Pereira).

Blachowicz’ career takedown accuracy is 50%. Ankalaev’s is just 31%.

Given that Pereira was able to hold Blachowicz below his average in takedowns, there might be hope that he can stay on his feet against Ankalaev.

If the takedown was Ankalaev’s only weapon, he would be in trouble. However, despite what his name and beard suggest, Ankalaev is not a wrestle-only fighter. He’s not even a wrestle-first fighter.

Ankalaev likes to strike. And he’s pretty good at it, too.

Anakalev has the second most knockdowns in the division (7) and he’s top ten in total significant strikes landed, sig. strikes accuracy (52.9%) and striking differential. He’s also fourth in sig. striking defense (58.8%) and second in strikes absorbed per minute (2.37).

The only active fighter who has a better defensive record in the Light Heavyweight division, as far as sig. strikes absorbed, is former longtime champion Jon Jones (2.22).

We can’t talk about striking without talking about Pereira, though. His jump left hook has entered mythical territory along with the H-Bomb as being a strike that, if it lands clean, it can put anyone to sleep. Pereira’s power gets the headlines, but his accuracy deserves a lot of praise. His sig. strike accuracy leads the division, by a mile. He lands 67.2% of his sig. strikes. Second place in that category is Jon Jones’ record as a Light Heavyweight, which saw him land 57.9% of his sig. strikes.

Pereira’s elite accuracy against Ankalaev’s elite defense makes for a fascinating duel. And I think it is likely that Pereira is able to land his best shots on Ankalaev and that is enough to put him down. However, I think it’s equally probable that Ankalaev can block enough of those shots while putting lots of money in the bank with his own striking.

I’m leaning towards Anakalev in this fight because, if it’s a wash on the feet, a few strategic takedowns across five rounds will be very meaningful.

There are a few intangibles at play in this match-up, too.

Pereira’s activity and age might bite him in the butt one day. And that day could be Saturday. Pereira must have been in constant training camp over the past few years. He’s also been very active on the ‘professional appearance’ circuit, hitting up Korea, Australia and the Middle East. That schedule, plus the fights themselves (some of which have been quite gruelling) have to take a toll at some point.

The odds for this one are tight. That means you can have a decent moneyline bet on either guy. The point spread is giving points to Ankalaev. So if you think Bruce Buffer will yell “And New!” on Saturday, you should jump on that at -150.

The round total is set at 2.5 rounds. The over is -166 and the under is +130. I really like the over, given how good Ankalaev is defensively.

Vegas thinks this fight will end in a KO/TKO/DQ. The odds on that are -150. I’m a little tempted by decision at +150, though.

Betonline has some interesting Double Chance bets. Ankalaev to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Decision is +100. Pereira is -110 under those same conditions.

With how close this one is to call, I’m liking the over bet. For my best bet, though, I’m going to bet the fight goes a little longer than 2.5 rounds and that we actually start round four. Again, this is due to Ankalaev’s defense and my belief that Pereira might be slowing down.

Best bet: Fight to Start Round 4 - Yes (-130)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Justin Gaethje (+136) vs. Rafael Fiziev (-162)

Rafael Fiziev won the Justin Gaethje sweepstakes last week, getting the call to replace Dan Hooker in the UFC 313 co-main event. This gives ‘Ataman’ an opportunity to avenge his majority decision loss to ‘The Highlight”.

After that fight Fiziev lost to Mateusz Gamrot, due to a leg injury. That was back in September, 2023. He’s been on the sidelines ever since.

Gaethje has had marginally more success since his fight with Fiziev. He KO’d Dustin Poirier with a head kick (see it here) at UFC 291 in 2023. Then, in 2024, he was KO’d by Max Holloway in the single most thrilling moment in MMA history (relive it here).

Fiziev gave a great account of himself in that first fight. He tagged Gaethje with body kicks at range and with uppercuts and hooks up close (often to the body as well). His speed and motor gave Gaethje a lot of trouble in the first half of the fight. It forced Gaethje into counter-fighting more often than he would have preferred, especially since he found most his success bombing forwards with combos.

Fiziev won the first round of the fight. Gaethje responded by taking the second. In the third, Fiziev wobbled Gaethje early, but then gave him time to recover. Gaethje would regroup and take the third on the strength of his jab and a late takedown.

The bookies have Fiziev as the favorite in this match-up, despite the fact he lost the first fight, he’s coming in on short notice and he hasn’t fought since 2023.

With Gaethje being five years older, and with a lot more mileage on him, I can understand the idea that Gaethje may have regressed as a fighter since their first meeting. At 32, though, Fiziev is not exactly peaking athletically.

I think Gaethje is probably going to pull this one out. I think it would be easy for him to do so if he looked to utilize his wrestling early and not as a back-up plan. Gaethje’s rock ‘em sock ‘em style has made him a very popular fighter, but it led to his ruin in his last fight.

If he tried to take Fiziev down, especially when Fiziev throws his kicks, I think he would be successful. But I can’t say with confidence that Gaethje would even want to win a fight that way.

If he only wants to trade on the feet, then this is a pick ‘em for me. If he’s looking to put a W on his record and doesn’t care how it looks, then I think he has this in the bag.

The point spread is giving Gaethje 3.5 points at -140. Again, I’m very shocked he’s in this situation considering he’s the one who has been planning to fight on Saturday for a couple of months now.

Fiziev minus the points is just +100.

The round total is 2.5 with the over at -135. I agree with the oddsmakers that this is likely going to a decision. Gaethje to win a decision is priced very high at +350. Fiziev getting the decision is +215.

I like this fight to go to a decision, so my best bet will be Fight to Go the Distance at +100. I like this because this is just a three round fight and because I think both these guys are too tough to be stopped in that short(er) amount of time.

Gaethje has only had three other three round fights in UFC. Those fights were his previous decision with Fiziev, a decision win over Michael Chandler and a late third round stoppage loss to Eddie Alvarez (see it here).

Best bet: Fight to Go the Distance (+100)

Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Jalin Turner (+105) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (-125)

Ignacio Bahamondes played spoiler at Sphere last year. He obliterated Manual Torres (see it here) and then raised the Chilean flag on UFC’s ode to Mexican Heritage. That was his second stoppage in a row after he finished Christos Giagos with a head kick earlier in the year (see it here).

Jalin Turner was stopped by Renato Moicano in his last fight. That happened after Turner thought he scored a walk-off KO. That mistake cost him when Moicano regrouped and stormed back for the TKO win (see it here).

Prior to this Turner KO’d King Green in the first round (see it here).

Turner usually has a big height and reach advantage at Lightweight. But Bahamondes is equally lanky. And I think Bahamondes’ volume striking might cause Turner some issues.

Bahamondes lands a remarkable 7.17 significant strikes per minute (Turner lands 5.6), that’s third highest in the division (behind Esteban Ribovics and Terrance McKinney). Despite throwing so many strikes, Bahamondes sig. strikes absorbed per minute is just 4.41 (lower than Turner’s 4.57). These numbers have him fourth in the division for striking differential.

Turner may not land as much as Bahamondes, but his power is comprable. Turner and Bahamondes are fifth and sixth in the division for knockdowns per 15 minutes.

Turner is the more likely fighter to try and wrestle in this match, since Bahamondes has never attempted a takedown in UFC. If Turner tries to make the fight more than just a striking affair, he might struggle to get Bahamondes down. Bahamondes’ 85% takedown defense is one of the highest in the division. That stat was earned against some decent wrestlers, too (L’udovit Klein, Trey Ogden, Christos Giagos).

The round total has been set for 1.5 rounds, so Vegas is expecting some fireworks. And so am I! I think Bahamondes has a great chance to stop Turner (who has four previous KO/TKO losses in his career) in this bout.

Bahamondes by KO/TKO/DQ is +240. I’ll take that, expecting Bahamondes to build on his very good 2024.

Best bet: Iganacio Bahamondes via KO/TKO/DQ (+240)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Amanda Lemos (+114) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-135)

Iasmin Lucindo is on a four fight winning streak after a split decision win over Marina Rodriguez in October. That followed her unanimous decision win over Karolina Kowalkiewicz.

Amanda Lemos was submitted, last time out, after being dragged down by Virna Jandiroba in a UFC APEX main event last summer (see it here). Before that she won a fun fight over Mackenzie Dern. In 2023 Lemos unsuccessfully challenge Zhang Weili for the Strawweight title, losing by decision.

Lemos is 37 and thirteen years older than Lucindo. Lucindo is also marginally taller and longer than Lemos.

Against Rodriguez, Lucindo managed to edge the decision through scoring three takedowns and spending a good chunk of time on top. During the striking exchanges, Rodriguez seemed to have the better of her.

Lucindo will need to rely even more on takedowns to get past the former title challenger.

Lemos’ striking will be sharper than Lucindo’s. And Lemos’ southpaw stance might cause Lucindo a little trouble. I think this will just serve as added incentive for Lucindo to get this fight to the ground.

Lemos has a good takedown defense of 61 percent. But, Lucindo has a very good takedown accuracy of 57 percent.

At just 23, I think we’re likely to see improvements from Lucindo in each of her fights for the next little while. Because of that, I think she gets the takedowns she needs and is able to extend that win streak to five.

Best bet: Iasmin Lucindo moneyline (-135)

Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images

King Green (+360) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (-470)

Ruffy fought the uber tough James Llontop in his last fight, at 309. Joe Rogan was on the call that night. Rogan talked Ruffy up as the second coming of Conor McGregor (the fighter version of him, which won fights, not whatever he’s become now). I think Rogan was a little confused that night. My guess is that he confused this Fighting Nerd with fellow Fighting Nerds Carlos Prates or Jean Silva or perhaps melded all three of them together in his mind.

Prior to the Llontop fight, all we saw of Ruffy was a first round TKO of Jamie Mullarkey (see it here). That was impressive. But it was also Jamie Mullarkey.

He laid a beating on Llontop, but he was also hit a lot in that fight. Llontop landed 90 sig. strikes on him. Ruffy only landed 67. Ruffy was far more economical and damaging with his striking, though.

I think Ruffy is going to get found out sooner or later. So I’m advising a lot of caution when I see him with massive favorite odds. Ruffy has some electric striking, but he leaves himself very open, with his chin up in the air.

Green, meanwhile, is the kind of guy who could exploit that. Terrible fight IQ cost him his fight with Paddy Pimblett last time out (watch him run into a submission here). Despite his age, he’s still got fast hands and power.

His chin isn’t much to speak of nowadays (KO’d by Jalin Turner and Drew Dober), but if this is going to be a gun fight, I don’t think it’s impossible that Green lands first and lays out Ruffy.

Because I don’t trust Ruffy’s defense or Green’s chin, I’m all about the under in this fight. Under 1.5 rounds is +140. If I wanted to be more conservative, I would take KO/TKO/DQ as the method of victory for -150.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (+140)

UFC 313 Late ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Ben Roberts Photo/Getty Images

Curtis Blaydes (-340) vs. Rizvan Kuniev (+270)

UFC really has no idea what to do with Curtis Blaydes, huh?

In his last fight he fought Tom Aspinall for the interim Heavyweight title, which he lost by quick TKO (see it here). Now he’s welcoming someone off of Contender Series.

Before that Aspinall fight, Blaydes beat Jailton Almeida with hammerfists, in a fight he was losing (see the finish here). Before that he was stopped by Sergei Pavlovich (see that here).

Kuniev is a Dagestani sanda stylist (think a Heavyweight Muslim Salikhov). He won by first round technical knockout on Contender Series.

Blaydes struggles with fighters who have power, but I think his wrestling and UFC experience should be enough to get the job done here.

Kicks and knees are a big part of Kuniev’s offense. If he tries to employ those on Saturday, that should make things easier for Blaydes to take him down.

The oddsmakers must fancy Blaydes’ chances of stopping Kuniev. Under 2.5 rounds is -130. The over is +100. I’ll take the over here, thinking Blaydes might be content to lay on Kuniev for long periods of the fight and earn a decision.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (+100)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Joshua Van (-192) vs. Rei Tsuruya (+160)

Tsuruya is a “Road to UFC” winner. He beat Carlos Hernandez in his first proper UFC fight in June. And he we a little lucky there. Tsuruya has very fun and watchable BJJ. Against Hernandez he went deep into his bag of tricks, sometimes trying outlandish moves when something more simple would have been more effective. In that fight he looked tired in the third and Hernandez was able to out strike him and win the last round.

If Tsuruya didn’t like Hernandez’s pressure on the feet, he’ll hate what happens when Van comes flying at him.

After losing to a Charles Johnson uppercut in July (see it here), Van has responded with two decision victories over Edgar Chairez and Cody Durden.

Van has great takedown defense and he hits very often and very hard. I think that spells a tough night for Tsuruya.

Best bet: Joshua Van moneyline (-192)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Brunno Ferreira (+130) vs. Armen Petrosyan (-155)

Armen Petrosyan is coming off an epic double spinning back fist knockout loss to Shara Magomedov (see it here).

You know who else likes spinning stuff? Brunno Ferreira.

Ferreira stopped Dustin Stoltzfus with a spinning elbow last June (see it here). Before that he finished Phil Hawes with a flying knee (see it here). Last time out he was submitted by Abus Magomedov (see it here).

Ferreira is a stout Middleweight who usually has a reach disadvantage against his opponents. However, he’ll have a one inch advantage against Petrosyan.

I think Ferreira’s power will be the deciding factor in this bout. Petrosyan doesn’t have any finishes in UFC (other than his Contender Series fight). If he and Ferreira are going to brawl, I think he’ll get on the wrong side of another highlight.

Best bet: Brunno Ferreira moneyline (+130)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Alex Morono (+600) vs. Carlos Leal (-900)

Leal was robbed in his last fight. In the opener of UFC 308 he ‘lost’ a decision to Rinat Fakhretdinov. The media scores for this fight unanimously sided with Leal. However, two of the judges scored the fight 29-28 Fakhretdinov and another, Hadi Mohamed Ali, scored it 30-27. That 30-27 is up there for all-time worst UFC scorecards.

Leal, who came in on short notice to fight Fakhretdinov, might have been given a lay-up by UFC here.

Morono showed some signs of life in his split decision loss to Daniel Rodriguez recently. Coincidently, Morono was matched with Rodriguez after Rodriguez bailed out UFC on a middle eastern card against an overweight Kelvin Gastelum.

Prior to the Rodriguez fight, Morono looked terrible in a loss to Niko Price.

The odds here are massivly in Leal’s favor. I think he’ll win and look to do so without the judges being involved.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-115)

UFC 313 Early ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Mairon Santos (-310) vs. Francis Marshall (+250)

Santos starched Kaan Ofli to win The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) last year (see it here).

Marshall, meanwhile, came in on short notice to beat Dennis Buzukja in his last fight.

Santos has nice striking, but we don’t know if he can stop a takedown yet. I don’t like his odds for someone coming right off TUF in this day and age. I’ll go with the over instead, assuming Marshall is a step up in competition and not someone he can blow through.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds -180.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Djorden Santos (-192) vs. Ozzy Diaz (+160)

Santos is coming off a unanimous decision win on Contender Series.

Diaz, meanwhile, was beat up by Zhang Mingyang in his last fight (see the first round stoppage here). Zhang might be pretty good (we’ll be seeing him against Anthony Smith next month), so I’m not reading too much into that loss.

Diaz is a fun striker who, at 34, has his best years behind him. Someone needs to check Santos’ passport to see if he’s really 27.

Santos likely wins this with his wrestling. It might not make for a very entertaining fight, though.

Best bet: Djorden Santos moneyline (-192)

Photo by Al Powers/Zuffa LLC

Chris Gutierrez (-105) vs. John Castaneda (-115)

Gutierrez was first booked to fight Jean Matsumoto. Matsumoto was drafted in to replace Dominick Cruz against Rob Font a few weeks ago.

Castaneda, on the other hand, was supposed to fight Douglas Silva de Andrade last week, but the veteran Brazilian fell out of the fight on weigh-in day.

I like Gutierrez in this match-up. He’s the more active and technical striker (with some mean leg kicks). He has good takedown defense, too, which should stifle Castaneda’s gameplan.

Best bet: Chris Gutierrez moneyline (-105)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

UFC 313 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action.

Magomedov Ankalaev to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+1100)

Ankalaev has good power in his hands. Pereira might be preparing more for his wrestling game than his striking. Imagine if Ankalaev quickly fakes a takedown and then throws a bomb over the top that catches Pereira flush behind the ear? It could happen.

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev - Fight to End in the Last 10 Seconds of Any Round (+5000)

What if history repeats itself? I think we’re in for a close fight here with a lot of time spent standing and banging (even if I think Gaethje has an easy path to victory through wrestling). And what if we get to the last ten seconds of round three and Gaethje, with his blood up, wants to try and erase the memories of Holloway starching him on the buzzer. Maybe he points to the center of the cage? Maybe Fiziev obliges. And maybe someone goes down.

Three-fight parlay: Carlos Leal, Ignacio Bahamondes, King Green (+850)

I’ve gone with a heavy favorite here (Carlos Leal), a moderate favorite (Ignacio Bahamondes) and a big underdog (King Green) to give myself a nice price on a three fight parlay. Obviously it needs Green to come through and for Vegas (and Joe Rogan) to be as wrong on Mauricio Ruffy as I think they are.

Remember that Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 313 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 313: “Pereira vs. Ankalaev” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

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