Top Betting Props, Parlays, and Selections for UFC Atlanta | Usman vs. Buckley

UFC Atlanta is live this weekend (Sat., June 14, 2025), featuring Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley in the main event. Checkout the odds for that top Welterweight clash (and much more) right here!

UFC Atlanta goes down this weekend (Sat., June 14, 2025) inside State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. And it’s a pretty good card, too! The main event is Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley, a fight that could launch Buckley right into the title mix at Welterweight. The former 170-pound champ, though, is already talking about a potential fight with Islam Makhachev (and Dricus du Plessis!).

UFC Atlanta’s co-main event is Rose Namajunas vs. Miranda Maverick. This is a potential changing of the guard moment in the Flyweight division. The former champ Namajunas will be looking to stop Maverick leapfrogging her in the rankings.

Rounding out UFC Atlanta’s main card is Edmen Shabazyan vs. Andre Petroski, Cody Garbrandt vs. Raoni Barcelos, Cody Brundage vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik and Alonzo Menifield vs. Oumar Sy.

UFC Atlanta’s “Prelims” are headlined by Paul Craig vs. Rodolfo Bellato (we hope). Also on the undercard is Michael Chiesa vs. Court McGee and Ricky Sumon vs. Cameron Smotherman. Not bad, at all.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Atlanta Main Card Money Line Odds

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Kamaru Usman (+230) vs. Joaquin Buckley (-280)

The 38 year-old Usman has looked rather human in the last few yeas. Prior to that he was being talked up as a Welterweight GOAT (not by me, though, I’m on GSP land up here). Usman’s legacy was tarnished in 2022 thanks to that headkick from Leon Edwards (see it again here). Usman then dropped a majority decision to Edwards six months later. Usman’s last fight was also a majority decision loss. That was a spirited losing effort opposite Khamzat Chimaev. That Chimaev fight was all the way back in October 2023.

The 31 year-old Buckley has hit his stride as a Welterweight. He’s undefeated since making that move, off the back of a Chris Curtis technical knockout loss in 2022 (see that here). He’s won six fights since then. Among those wins are his knockout over Stephen Thompson (see that here), his ground and pound technical knockout on Vicente Luque (see that here) and his dominating performance over Colby Covington (see it here).

Against Usman he’ll get another chance to style on a Welterweight of Christmas past. If he gets through “The Nigerian Nightmare,” which Vegas (and I) assume he will, then hopefully fights with the likes of Carlos Prates and/or Michael Morales will come calling.

Buckley is a decent favorite in this fight. It’s easy to see why. Usman is closer to 40 than 35 and he hasn’t competed in almost two years. That puts everyone — other than the most special of fighters — at an immediate disadvantage. Usman was one of those special fighters. But today, I don’t think he’ll be able to match Buckley’s speed, energy or power.

At his best, Usman was a smothering wrestler who could knock you out between attempts to take you down. I think prime Usman walks through Buckley. But, that’s not enough to tip the scales for me in this fight.

Buckley has devastating power for this division. But he’s not just a flamethrower. He’s good technically, too, and he has above average striking defense. He’s listed fourth in the division for his 64.1 percent significant striking defense. However, Robert Whittaker and Kelvin Gastelum are listed one and two, despite not being in that division anymore. Buckley is also Top 10 in significant strikes absorbed per minute and significant strike differential. It’s rare to see someone who is as powerful and aggressive as he be also so defensively sound. In this match-up with Usman, I think that means, even if Usman still has knockout power in his hands, he might struggle to land his best shot on Buckley.

Buckley is able to prevent a lot of shots coming his way due to how active he is with his kicks. A prime Usman would feast on those kicks and use them for takedowns. Can this Usman do the same? I’m not sure. Buckley also has a very high takedown defense of 73 percent.

The Buckley moneyline isn’t too short to be considered a good bet. Buckley -5.5 points is -140. I’m not interested in this point spread because I think there’s a good chance this goes the distance. Buckley has never fought for five rounds. He’s been scheduled for five, but never needed the ‘championship rounds’. If he and Usman go all five, I think it’s possible Usman takes a round or two from him.

Usman +5.5 is +100, but I really don’t like taking point spreads on guys I wouldn’t pick to win straight up.

Buckley to win by KO/TKO/DQ is just +140. I’d like that to be a little higher against someone as durable as Usman. Buckley by decision is +180. That’s more tempting for me.

The round total has been set at 4.5 rounds. I was really hoping to see Vegas have a lower round total here, expecting Buckley to do to Usman what he’s done to the other former top Welterweights he’s faced. If this line were 3.5 I would have hammered the over. As things stand, though, over 4.5 is -105 and under is -125. I’m favoring this fight going the distance, but that’s still a very tough call to make.

For my best bet, I’m going to use Betonline same game parlay to give myself that over 3.5 bet, parlayed with a Buckley win. This is me respecting both Usman’s toughness and Buckley’s power.

Best bet: Joaquin Buckley and Over 3.5 rounds (+135)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Rose Namajunas (-255) vs. Miranda Maverick (+205)

Namajunas last competed in Nov. 2024, dropping a decision to Erin Blanchfield. Before that, she dominated Tracy Cortez. Cortez was coming in on short notice in that fight for Maycee Barber. And this was at UFC Denver, meaning Cortez had to fight at altitude on just two weeks’ notice. Namajunas, who lives in Colorado, was able to cruise in that fight. In 2024, Namajunas also scored a decision win over Amanda Ribas.

In fact, 2024 was the first time in her 13-year UFC career where Namajunas competed three times in a year (not including her TUF stint).

Maverick, meanwhile, also saw action three times last year. Those three fights were all decision wins, over Jamey-Lyn Horth, Dione Barbosa and Andrea Lee. Namajunas is a massive step up from those opponents.

Despite how much longer Namajunas’ UFC career has been, she’s still only 32 years-old (five years older than Maverick).

I don’t think Maverick offers anything that Namajunas hasn’t seen, or beaten, before. Maverick has met fighters on Namajunas’ level in the past, but he’s been second best to them. In 2023, she lost to Jasmine Jasudavicius and in 2021 she lost to both Blanchfield and Barber.

I don’t think Maverick has improved much since being figured out by those well-rounded fighters with good grappling. And I think she’ll struggle against Namajunas, who is also well-rounded fighter with good grappling.

Again, the moneyline on Namajunas isn’t terrible. The over/under is, though. Over 2.5 rounds is predictably short at -520. I wouldn’t touch the under, at +350, given how often these two go to a decision.

The best bet I can find on this fight is going with Namajunas by unanimous decision. That’s a bit of a risk given how often women’s fights end in split/majority decisions. But, I have faith in the young veteran here. And I think she’s going to show Maverick’s ceiling is Top 15 (not Top 10).

Best bet: Rose Namajunas by unanimous decision (-125)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Edmen Shahbazyan (-185) vs. Andre Petroski (+155)

I’m excited for this fight and I think it’s good match-making.

Shahbazyan helped reset his vibe by destroying Dylan Budka with a first round knockout. That came after he gassed out and was submitted by Gerald Meerschaert, in a fight where he had knocked down Meerschaert in the first.

Petroski, on the other hand, is coming off the best win in his career, a dominant wrestling performance (which was actually fun to watch) over Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist Rodolfo Vieira. That’s Petroski’s third win in a row following decisions over Budka and Josh Fremd.

Petroski’s gameplan will be to get Shahbazyan into the proverbial deep waters. However, once he has him there, he’s not a massive threat to score a finish. He has three finishes in UFC, but none since 2021. Because of that, Shahbazyan might have a long window to score the finish of his own.

I think Petroski is being slept on a little as a factor at Middleweight. His wrestling and grappling are very hard to handle. He’s second in the division for takedown accuracy (behind Abus Magomedov) and also second for takdown defense (behind Roman Kopylov). He’s third in submission average per 15 minutes (behind Anthony Hernandez and Bo Nickal) and also fifth in submission attempts. He’s also first in top position time, fourth in total control time and third in control time percentage. He’s also top ten in lowest bottom position time and bottom position percentage. Man’s a nightmare on the ground!

Shahbazyan’s takedown defense is decent, at 65 percent, but I think Petroski is good enough to get him down.

The biggest risk for Petroski in this fight is Shahbazyan scoring a quick (technical) knockout. I think Petroski has shown a lot of improvement in avoiding those kinds of shots, though. And he’s not a wrestler who is going to fool himself into thinking he has “Canelo Hands.” He’s not going to try and box with Shahbazyan. He’s going to shoot within the first ten seconds of the fight.

I think he’s a great live dog in this fight, as he was when he beat Vieira.

Petroski +3.5 is +110. I can’t turn that down, especially when I think he’s going to get a unanimous decision on the night.

Best bet: Andre Petroski +3.5 (+110)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Cody Garbrandt (+165) vs. Raoni Barcelos (-195)

Garbrandt’s last fight was his submission loss to Deiveson Figueiredo in 2024 (see it here). Figueiredo has since hit his ceiling at Bantamweight, which tells you where the ceiling for Garbrandt might be (a long way from title contention).

Garbrandt was supposed to fight Miles Johns in Oct. and Nov. 2024, but that fell through both times. Most recently it was due to an injury to Garbrandt. Garbrandt’s last win was a knockout over Brian Kelleher in 2023 (see it here).

On the flip side, Barcelos played the ultimate spoiler last time out, upsetting Payton Talbott as a +700 underdog. And he didn’t beat the much hyped super prospect with a lucky punch, he dominated Talbott from bell-to-bell. That just goes to show that you can’t always believe the bookies in these fights (more on that later on this card).

That win over Talbott followed up a submission win over Cristian Quinonez (see it here).

Garbrandt’s Renan Barao-esque fall from supremacy to mediocrity is puzzling. Despite being overwhelmed in his recent fights with elites at either 135 or 125 pounds, Garbrandt has still shown some flashes of his previously much beloved boxing.

I just think, given what we’ve seen lately, Barcelos is a step above the guys who Garbrandt can beat right now. Garbrandt is still young at 33, but at times he fights like a much older man (maybe due to the damage he’s taken). That’s why Barcelos being 38 isn’t that much of a concern to me, especially when Barcelos looked far more spry than the 25-year-old Talbott last time out.

Barcelos is great at mixing up his striking and wrestling. Garbrandt is known for stellar takedown defense (80 percent). However, I think Barcelos will find success with his wrestling, thanks to his striking. I can see Barcelos using his reach advantage to win exchanges with Garbrandt and get the kind of reactive takedowns we saw him land on Talbott to piece together a somewhat comfortable decision.

Best bet: Raoni Barcelos moneyline (-195)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Mansur Abdul-Malik (-800) vs. Cody Brundage (+500)

Abdul-Malik is a problem.

It won’t be long before he’s headlining an APEX card opposite a ranked opponent. Abdul-Malik is still undefeated (8-0) with all stoppages after putting away Nick Klein in the second round in February. Previously, he destroyed Dusko Todorovic (see it here). Klein, a short notice opponent, did surprise Abdul-Malik a little, rocking him in the first round. However, I can excuse that given how great Abdul-Malik looked after he recovered.

Abdul-Malik has an uncanny ability to land extremely powerful shots when in close. There’s not many folks in the sport who can land punches on the ground and inside the clinch with as much snap and ferocity as they do when they are at range.

Brundage, meanwhile, finished Julian Marquez in a co-main event last time out. That fight was wild with Brundage taking big shots to land bigger ones on Marquez.

If he wants to play rock ‘em sock ‘em with Abdul-Malik, I think he’s going to get hurt, bad.

Abdul-Malik is one of a couple massive favorites on the card. I can totally support these odds, though, given how scary Abdul-Malik has looked and how reckless Brundage has been as of late.

Obviously, there’s no value on the moneyline here. The round total is 1.5 and I’m fine with taking the under. Both these guys fight like their parking meter is about to expire. And, while I’m high on Abdul-Malik, I don’t think it’s out the question that he gets his bubble burst by Brundage. If that happens, it’s probably going to happen early, too.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-188)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Alonzo Menifield (+550) vs. Oumar Sy (-900)

This is the line I find so curious.

Sy is one of the biggest favorite on our card. That’s despite him coming off a very ho-hum decision over Da Woon Jung at UFC Paris last year. That was just his second UFC fight. His first was an easy win over Tuco Tokkos (one of the worst fighters on the roster for the past two years running).

Sy is undefeated (11-0) and he possesses an enormous Jon Jones-like frame (6’4”, 83-inch reach). I just don’t think he’s a -900 favorite, especially against his first opponent who has an actual UFC resume to his name,

Menifield, meanwhile, won a grueling decision over the 6’4” Julius Walker in his last fight, earning a “Fight of the Night” bonus. He lost his previous two fights. However, I think we can forgive him being stopped by Azamat Murzakanov (see it here) and Carlos Ulberg (see it here).

Sy’s striking hasn’t looked that great in UFC so far, certainly not on a level of Murzakanov and Ulberg. He may not be using his ungodly reach much offensively, but it is helping him stay out of trouble. He’s only absorbed 33 significant strikes in his first two fights.

Sy’s wrestling could cause Menifield a lot of problems. Sy’s huge frame has helped him score 3.21 takedowns per 15 mins thus far in the Octagon. Though, his accuracy could be much better (just 40 percent).

Menifield has good defense at 78 percent. However, Sy’s size might make that moot.

I think Sy’s path to winning is through smothering Menifield for three rounds and he may very well do that. But, if this fight is left standing for a while, I think there’s a chance Menifield touches Sy up and hurts him. If that happens we have no idea how Sy will react or what his wrestling will look like once his nose is busted and his eyes are blurry.

Taking the Menifield moneyline would be a bold move at +500. You can also get him at +3.5 for +225. Fortune favors the bold, though.

Best bet: Alonzo Menifield moneyline (+500)

UFC Atlanta ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Paul Craig (+310) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (-425)

This was supposed to happen a few weeks ago. Here’s what I wrote about it then (with snark about UFC Vegas 106’s card included):

Just in case you forgot we were in the UFC APEX we have this as the co-main event.

Bellato fought to a draw with Jimmy Crute at UFC 312 in February. The draw came after Bellato was almost finished in the first round, giving Crute the 10-8 round before Bellato regrouped and won the second and third rounds (mostly due to his leg kicks).

Prior to that fight, Bellato won his UFC debut with a ground-and-pound win over Ihor Potieria (see it here).

Craig will make his 20th walk to the Octagon this weekend. He heads into Saturday with a 9-9-1 UFC record. He’s coming off a very boring decision loss to Bo Nickal. Before that, he was battered by Caio Borralho and submitted by Brendan Allen (see it here).

Initially, it felt like Craig was here for a fun time, not a long time. But, time has now dragged on and the 37-year-old’s lack of striking remains a serious liability in any fight he could take in the division.

Craig is a massive underdog against Bellato. That’s because of Bellato’s punching power and the long-standing belief that Craig will go down if someone can catch him on the chin.

The round total of 1.5 also reflects that with the under currently available at -135.

Bellato via (technical) knockout also has very short odds at -185.

I don’t see a reason to disagree with Vegas on all this. To try and get a little value, though, I’ll take Bellato to get that finish in the first round. He started slow against Crute and was nearly finished, so he should be motivated to come out quick for this one. I’ll take Bellato to win in the first, regardless of method, since I think a club-and-sub might be on the card.

I don’t have those prop lines at this time of writing. I still believe Bellato is going to win this one, though, and likely stop Craig early.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-105)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Michael Chiesa (-380) vs. Court McGee (+290)

What year is this?

Hey, better late than never, right? This is a fun match-up of former TUF winners, both of whom competed on that show when it was still somewhat relevant and worth tuning in for. Chiesa’s TUF Live season may have been the beginning of the end, though.

I think UFC sees value in having one of their desk guys getting in and out the cage without getting mauled (too bad they didn’t want to do that with Anthony Smith).

Chiesa is currently splitting time between working the analysis desk and being given very winnable fights from UFC. Last year he scored submissions over Tony Ferguson and Max Griffin. Prior to that he was on a three fight losing streak with defeats Kevin Holland, Sean Brady and Vicente Luque.

At 40, McGee just keeps trucking along. He beat Tim Means with a neck crank last time out (see it here). Before that he lost a decision to Alex Morono and was KO’d by a retiring Matt Brown (see it here).

The sell-by date on McGee’s high pressure game expired a while ago. He doesn’t have the strength or motor left to grind out the kind of wins that defined his career. Chiesa’s game has matured with age, though. He’s still very capable at avoiding the striking game of a McGee and finding his way to the ground. When there, I think his Brazilian jiu-jitsu will give him another bloodless victory.

Best bet: Michael Chiesa moneyline (-380)

Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Malcolm Wellmaker (-1800) vs. Kris Moutinho (+900)

Holy moly, ESPN have Wellmaker as -2500 favorite. If he closed at thoseodds he would be the biggest betting favorite in UFC history, beating Isaac Dulgarian’s 2024 line of -2400 against Brendon Marotte (a fight Dulgarian won with ease).

Obviously, the 31-year-old Wellmaker looks to be the much better fighter in this match-up. He’s perfect (9-0) as a professional and put Cameron Saaiman to sleep with a beautiful right hook in April (see it here).

Moutinho, on the other hand, is best known for coming in on short notice and giving Sean O’Malley a hell of a fight in 2021. He lost, by standing technical knockout (see it here), but he had his moments and was well deserving of a “Fight of the Night” bonus.

After that, he was put away by Guido Cannetti (see it here) and then cut by the promotion. He’s undefeated (5-0) in in mixed martial arts (MMA) since then.

Wellmaker is a blue chip prospect (despite his age) and he’s probably going to find Moutinho’s chin. These odds are just too absurd to even bother thinking about this fight as something to potentially bet on.

I can’t touch that moneyline and, unlike Alonzo Menifield, I don’t think Moutinho has it in him for a big upset. I’ll play the under, instead, assuming Wellmaker gets another quick knockout.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-175)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Cody Durden (+160) vs. Jose Ochoa (-190)

Georgia-native Durden couldn’t get near Joshua Van in his last fight. Given what we’ve seen from Van, though, Durden deserves some credit for lasting the full three rounds. Before that Durden choked out Matt Schnell (see it here). And before that, Durden was dropped by a Bruno Silva uppercut (see it here).

Ochoa lost a decision to Lone’er Cavanagh in his promotional debut out in Macau last year.

He was “enhancement talent” for the promising Cavanagh there. Now he’s a favorite to beat a good ol’ boy in his own backyard.

Durden is very limited as a striker, but he’s got decent wrestling. We’ve not seen much of Ochoa at this level. He’s a strike-first fighter, though.

If Durden decides to stand and trade, he’s probably going to get beaten up. If he relies on his wrestling, he’s got a good chance at earning a decision. I don’t think Durden’s fight IQ is high enough to bank on, so I’m abstaining from picking a winner. I’ll opt for the fight to go to a decision instead.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-130)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Ricky Simon vs. Cameron Smotherman

Simon looked fantastic in his last fight, hurting and then ending Javid Basharat (see it here) to show he’s still a relevant factor at Bantamweight. That win snapped a three-fight losing streak. However, those losses were against Vinicius Oliveira, Mario Bautista and Song Yadong.

Smotherman fought in May, losing a decision to Serhiy Sidey. He didn’t look great in that fight, failing to keep up with Sidey on the feet. Before that he came in on short notice to beat Jake Hadley and bounce the Englishman over to PFL.

There’s no odds for this fight at this time of writing because Smotherman is a late replacement for Charles Jourdain.

I expect Simon to be too tough on the feet, and with his wrestling, for Smotherman to handle, though.

Best bet: Ricky Simon moneyline

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Phil Rowe (+110) vs. Ange Loosa (-130)

Rowe has gone from being an interesting prospect at Welterweight to just a guy after losses to gatekeepers Neil Magny and Jake Matthews. In between those losses he also managed to get subbed by a Craig Jones flying triangle at Karate Combat (see it here).

Loosa’s career has yet to take off in UFC. He’s 2-2 and coming off a unanimous decision loss to Gabriel Bonfim.

Rowe has a lot of size over Loosa. He’s five inches taller and has a six-inch reach advantage. He should be able to make that count against a guy who absorbs more significant strikes than he lands (6.68 vs. 5.6).

Best bet: Phil Rowe moneyline (+110)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Jamey-Lyn Horth (-575) vs. Vanessa Demopoulos (+390)

Horth lost to this weekend’s co-main event fighter Miranda Maverick in her last fight. Horth took that fight a few weeks after winning a split decision over Ivana Petrovic. She’s 2-2 in UFC (all decisions).

Demopoulos, meanwhile, was dominated by Talita Alencar in her last fight. Before that, she was submitted by Jaqueline Amorim. She’ll be releived to not see an elite grappler on Saturday. She’s 5-4 in UFC with one stoppage.

Demopoulos is coming up from Strawweight for this fight.

Horth is a big Flyweight anyways, but in this bout she’ll have a five-inch height and seven-inch reach advantages. Demopoulos doesn’t do anything well enough to even the odds against that.

Best bet: Jamey-Lyn Horth moneyline (-575)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

UFC Atlanta Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action.

Usman vs. Buckley: Fight to End in the Last 10 Seconds of Any Round (+4500)

Buckley is a showman and he’s been given his biggest spotlight to date. I think he’s really going to show up and announce himself as a player in the Welterweight division. He’s a really creative striker and I can see him going for some homerun swings when he hears the 10 second clacker, especially if he’s been fighting conservatively for 4:50 out of fear for the takedown.

Alonzo Menifield to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+1100)

If Menifield is going to beat the -900 Sy, then it might have to be by knockout. Sy will dwarf Menifield in the cage, but that’s not new. In his last fight, Menifield beat Julius Walker (who is as big as Sy) by decision. Maybe that fight calibrated Menifield for striking up at a bigger man and we’ll see that pay off against Sy.

Two-bet parlay: Phil Rowe and Andre Petroski (+433)

There’s a lot of squash matches on this card, so there’s not many opportunities to bet on dogs (unless you’re nuts like me and like Menifield). Rowe and Petroski are two moderate underdogs who, I think, are in really favorable match-ups. I think Petroski can grind down Shahbazyan and I think Rowe can out-box Loosa.

Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Atlanta fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” undercard bouts at 7 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN/ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Atlanta news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here.

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