Top Betting Props, Parlays, and Predictions for UFC 316 | Merab vs. O’Malley 2

UFC 316 is live this weekend (Sat., June 7, 2025), featuring a pay-per-view (PPV) main event of Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2 for the Bantamweight title. Checkout the odds for that title fight (and much more) right here!

UFC 316 goes down this weekend (Sat., June 7, 2025) inside Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event is a rematch from last year’s Sphere event, with Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley 2 for the Bantamweight title.

“Suga” promises he’s done his grappling homework this time around. And he’s off weed (and hair dye), too, so perhaps the 30-year-old former champion has decided to finally maximize his enormous potential.

UFC 316’s co-main event is another title fight with Julianna Pena vs. Kayla Harrison for the women’s Bantamweight belt. There’s been plenty of bad blood for this one, which is becoming standard for a Pena fight.

The rest of UFC 316’s PPV main card (see it here) is pretty good. We’ve got Vicente Luque vs. Kevin Holland, Kelvin Gastelum vs. Joe Pyfer and Mario Bautista vs. Patchy Mix.

UFC 316’s “Prelims” have Bruno Silva vs. Joshua Van in the featured undercard spot. The undercard also has Khaos Williams vs. Andreas Gustafsson and Ariane da Silva vs. Wang Cong.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC 316 Main Card Money Line Odds

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC

Merab Dvalishvili (-285) vs. Sean O’Malley (+230)

New York-based Dvalishvili will be crossing the river into Jersey this weekend and hoping to retain his title for the second time. In his first title defense, in January, he took a unanimous decision over Umar Nurmagomedov. Some have called that a close decision. However, I scored it for the champ and thought he was a pretty convincing winner after his patented machine-like pressure and stamina thoroughly demoralized Nurmagomedov.

That was Dvalishvili’s first fight since taking the belt from O’Malley at UFC 306 last September. Those wins have the Georgian on a 12 fight winning streak.

O’Malley, on the other hand, has been sitting out since his loss to Dvalishvili last year. He had been undefeated in seven previous fights before that. One of those wins was his famous technical knockout over Aljamain Sterling to win the title (see that here).

O’Malley was the slight favorite in this match-up the first time we saw it (though he opened as an underdog). This time around he’s a pretty good-sized underdog.

This is the shortest line on Dvalishvili since he beat Gustavo Lopez in 2020 (as a -850 dog). He closed at plus odds in three of his last four fights. He was +105 in that first O’Malley fight, +225 against Umar Nurmagomedov and +210 against Petr Yan.

So, it seems like Dvalishvili is finally getting some respect from both Vegas, and the public, in these big name Bantamweight match-ups. I think that’s long overdue and I think he’s a deserving favorite in this fight.

O’Malley has talked a lot about adjustments he’s made during camp, both technical and extra-curricular, but I don’t think there has been enough time for him to have changed enough as a fighter to prevent Dvalishvili doing what he did the first time around.

I fully expect us to see more classic Merab in this fight with takedown after takedown and a little showboating thrown in to keep us (and the judges) entertained.

O’Malley will always have a puncher’s chance and there is a possibility that Dvalishvili gets silly in this fight and tries to show he can strike (let’s call that Belal Muhammad disease). However, I don’t know if Dvalishvili has it in him to not be constantly diving in at someone’s hips, especially someone as lanky as O’Malley.

In their first match up, Dvalishvili landed six of 15 takedowns. That’s a 40 percent success rate. And that’s higher than Dvalishvili’s career average of 35 percent. Therefore, I think Dvalishvili is going to continue to find takedowns on O’Malley (assuming O’Malley hasn’t become prime Georges St-Pierre in the last nine months).

Dvalishvili’s moneyline isn’t terrible. However, for value, Dvalishvili by decision at -165 is the best way to go. Dvalishvili only has four stoppages to his name (three TKO and one submission). The last time he hit one of those was when he beat Marlon Moraes with ground-and-pound in 2021 (see that here). That was a pretty shot Moraes, though, one who was finished by Rob Font and Cory Sandhagen in his two previous bouts. That’s Dvalishvili’s only finish in UFC.

O’Malley has only been stopped once in his career. That was when Marlon Vera finished him in the first round, landing ground-and-pound after O’Malley suffered a leg injury (see it here).

You know I like a point spread. In this fight, you can get Dvalishvili at -5.5 for +100 or O’Malley at +5.5 for -135.

If anything, I’m more tempted by the O’Malley spread. Dvalishvili’s style risks lulling judges to sleep at time and might have them looking to give his opponent rounds. I think there’s a chance Dvalishvili may drop a round after getting hurt and then spending the rest of that round holding on to regain his composure. I think we might get something like 48-47 scores with O’Malley maybe landing something in the first and fifth rounds, but not doing enough between.

I only take the spread on fighters who I think will actually win, though. And I’m just not confident enough in O’Malley in this fight. If I felt there was more of a chance that O’Malley could end this with his striking, then I would take him plus the points.

As it is, though, I’ll just go with Dvalishvili to get things done on the scorecards.

Best bet: Merab Dvalishvili by decision (-165)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Julianna Pena (-285) vs. Kayla Harrison (-750)

Wow. Vegas thinks that it’s a foregone conclusion that, after years of being UFC’s champion-in waiting (despite being in a different organization), Harrison will walk away the belt on Saturday night.

That’s despite Harrison looking pretty ordinary in her win over Ketlen Vieira back in Oct. 2024. Before that, she looked much more dominant, submitting Holly Holm (see it here). These wins have taken her overall record to 18-1. The lone blemish is a loss to PFL tournament specialist, Larissa Pacheco. However, Pacheco is no scrub. She’s only ever lost to Harrison (in their first two fights), Cris Cyborg and prime versions of Jessica Andrade and Germaine de Randamie.

The 35 year-old Pena (one year older than Harrison) is 11-5 as a professional. She beat Raquel Pennington by split decision to win the Bantamweight strap in October. I scored that fight for Pennington, but the fight was so bad that neither fighter should be upset at not being given a win there. That was Pena’s first fight since her 2022 loss to Amanda Nunes. Nunes dominated Pena for a decision in that one, a year after Pena surprised her (and everyone else) with a second round submission to rob the women’s G.O.A.T. of her title (see it here).

I think Harrison is going to wipe the floor with Pena. I’m hoping all the talk we’ve had between these two fires Harrison up, though, and we see a more aggressive performance from her.

Pena’s biggest asset is her pressure and wrestling. None of that should concern Harrison. Pena will likely be put on the back foot in this match. I suppose she might be able land an ugly punch out of nowhere that starches Harrison as she comes in. That would be very on brand for the weird and unpredictable career of the “Venezuelan Vixen.” But, I think the chances of that are too slim to consider seriously.

Harrison -5.5 is just -310! The only way you can find plus money on Harrison is if you pick the method of victory. Harrison is +215 to win by decision. She’s +140 to win by submission and +300 to win by (technical) knockout.

This is quite an interesting situation. Because it’s so plausible that Harrison could decision, submit or pound out Pena, all those outcomes come with some value.

Harrison does have six wins via (technical) knockout.

If Harrison gets that kind of stoppage in this fight, I see it being from something like the crucifix, where she just keeps tapping on Pena until the ref gets bored of it.

My head is telling me to go decision here. But, I just can’t help but shake the image of that speculative crucifix.

Best bet: Kayla Harrison to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+300)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Kelvin Gastelum (+300) vs. Joe Pyfer (-380)

We were supposed to see this fight at UFC Mexico City. However, Joe Pyfer was struck down by Montezuma’s Revenge. Here’s what I wrote when I was first thinking about this fight:

Pyfer ran through Marc-Andre Barriault last summer, KO’ing him in little more than one minute (see it here). That saw Pyfer rebound from a unanimous decision loss to Jack Hermansson. The loss to Hermansson — the best fighter Pyfer has fought by a mile — came after stoppage wins against Abdul Razak Alhassan and Gerald Meerschaert.

On the other hand, Gastelum’s last’s win was a bit weird. He overpowered Daniel Rodriguez at UFC Saudi Arabia in a bout that was abruptly changed to a Middleweight bout because Gastelum was never going to make the intended cut to Welterweight. His size advantage over Rodriguez was crucial for him pulling out the win.

Before that, he lost to Sean Brady via kimura submission (see that here).

Gastelum is a pretty big underdog here ... and I don’t think he deserves to be one.

While Gastelum has lost a lot in the past five years, he’s fought the best around and rarely has he looked totally overwhelmed. He can hang with the elites. Can Pyfer do the same?

Pyfer has looked great ... against the legal firm of Meerschaert and Barriault. But, I don’t think we’ve seen enough to say with confidence that he can get past Gastelum, who is remarkably still just 33 years old.

Gastelum has never been elite at any one thing, but he’s very good at all dimensions of MMA. His well-rounded game has kept him in the rankings for the bulk of his career. That game has also seen him bested by elite strikers over the years. Pyfer packs a punch, but is he anything Gastelum hasn’t seen before? I’m not so sure.

I think Gastelum might be able to frustrate Pyfer on the feet by pressing him into the cage and tiring him out. I think he might also be able to get a takedown or two on Pyfer, though I don’t think he’ll look to do that very often. I think he might give us the kind of fight we saw against Rodriguez, a Jared Cannonier-style grinding.

I don’t think Pyfer has the experience or cage-marshaling skills to stop that.

I haven’t changed my opinion since then. The odds have changed a little, though (to my benefit).

Best bet: Kelvin Gastelum moneyline (+300)

Photo by Matt Davies/PxImages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Mario Bautista (+150) vs. Patchy Mix (-180)

Mix — a former Bellator MMA champion — has finally arrived. After getting out of his PFLator contract, he gets a short notice opportunity against Mario Bautista (who was originally preparing for Marlon Vera).

Mix is 20-1 with just a loss to Juan Archuleta on his record (Archuleta is someone who would have done fine in UFC). Mix’s recent wins are against Magomed Magomedov, Sergio Pettis, Raufeon Stots and Kyoji Horiguchi. All those names would be competitive in UFC.

Bautista, meanwhile, is on a long win streak. He hasn’t lost since being KO’d by Trevin Jones in 2021. That and an armbar to Cory Sandhagen are his only professional losses. His current run includes decisions over Jose Aldo, Ricky Simon and Da’Mon Blackshear.

Can you remember that, though?

Bautista might be the most boring Top 10 fighter in the promotion.

He’s still very good, though. And he could use that boring, wall-and-stall, wet blanket game to ruin Mix’s debut.

Mix’s size might prevent that, though. Mix is taller and much longer than Bautista. I think he’s got a good chance of keeping Bautista on the other end of his jab. If and when Bautista tries to bully Mix against the cage or on the ground, Mix’s grappling might save him there, too.

My pick is going to be Mix straight up, here. Part of the reason for that is that it’s just too hard to get excited for anything Bautista might do in this fight. I think it’s also easy to pick Mix here because he’s coming in at 31 (same age as Bautista), unlike what we saw with Pitbull Freire. And he’s also coming in after fighting a schedule of Bantamweights that’s as good as anyone in UFC (outside the top three or four guys).

Best bet: Patchy Mix moneyline (-180)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Vicente Luque (+220) vs. Kevin Holland (-270)

Luque gave us one of those, “I guess y’all forgot” performances in his last fight. He put Themba Gorimbo to sleep with an anaconda choke inside a minute (see it here). He needed that win. Prior to this fight he was badly beaten up Joaquin Buckley (see it here). And we’re now three years removed from the hellish beating he took from Geoff Neal (see it here).

On the flip side, Holland beat Gunnar Nelson last time out. He smashed Nelson on the feet, with Nelson’s rock hard chin being the only reason that fight went to the judges. Before that, Holland was taken down and submitted, with ease, by Nickalslayer Reinier de Ridder. Before that, he lost to Roman Dolidze, due to a rib injury.

This is the third time in a row that UFC has matched Holland with a hot-shot grappler. Out of Nelson, de Ridder and Luque, though, Luque is — by far — the better striker. Holland is better than him on the feet, but it’s not a dramatic difference like it was with Gunny and RDR.

When you look at their striking numbers, Luque is marginally ahead of Holland in significant striking accuracy, defense and significant strikes landed per-minute. However, Luque absorbs far more significant strikes per-minute than Holland does. He absorbs 5.22 (which is more than he lands — big red flag, there). Holland absorbs 3.10.

The other big difference between these two is the reach. Holland has six inches over Luque. I think that reach, Holland’s power (48 percent of wins by KO/TKO), and how much Luque gets hit in a fight, might mean this is a long night for the Brazilian.

The round total for this fight has been set at 1.5 rounds. I think there could be a finish in this fight because of Holland’s striking, but also Holland’s notoriously poor grappling defense. However, I think 1.5 is a little low. The under is +140 and the over is -180.

Luque has some quick submissions to his name, but he’s never lost in the first round. If Holland has his number, I think Luque is still tough enough to last most of two rounds before going down.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-180)

UFC 316 Late ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images

Bruno Silva (+470) vs. Joshua Van (-650)

Silva got styled on by Manel Kape in his last fight. Silva got away with a few too many low blows in that one, which made Kape mad and led to Silva catching a beating (see it here). Before that, Silva dropped Cody Durden (see it here) and subbed Tyson Nam.

Van, meanwhile, seems to be well on his way to following up his very active 2024, where he competed four times. This is already his second fight of the year. In March, he dominated Rei Tsuruya for a decision. He’s now 6-1 in UFC. His lone loss is a knockout to Charles Johnson (see it here).

I think Silva — who is on the wrong side of 35 — is going to struggle to keep up with Van. Van fights like Kape did, accept he’ll be doing that from the opening bell.

I have some questions over Van’s ability to finish fights. For that reason, I’m looking at the over in this bout. The round total is 2.5 with the over at -160 and the under at +124. I like Betonline parlay where I can get Van to win and over 2.5 rounds. I think he’s going to run circles around Silva, but just fall short of putting away the tough veteran (whose loss to Kape was only the second T/KO loss of his career).

Best bet: Joshua Van to win and over 2.5 rounds (-145)

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Azamat Murzakanov (-625) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+455)

Ribeiro has won two straight after beating the truly terrible Diyar Nurgozhay and Caio Machado in dreadful matches. Before that, he lost to Magomed Gadzhiyasulov in another dreadful fight. And before that, he was blown away by Zhang Migyang (see it here).

Murzakanov, on the other hand, improved to 14-0 when he TKO’d Alonzo Menifield in August (see it here). He earned a “Performance of the Night” bonus for that, his second-ever with the promotion. He’s undefeated (4-0) in UFC, which includes a decision win over Dustin Jacoby.

I feel like UFC keeps trying to feed Ribeiro to the wolves. However, the last two guys they thought were wolves turned out to be golden retrievers. Murzakanov might be a real wolf, though. Based on the odds, Vegas thinks he’s a full-on dire wolf.

I think I’ve seen enough from Murzakanov to feel relatively assured that he will smoke Ribeiro.

Best bet: Azamat Muzakanov to finish the fight in Round 1 (+120)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Serghei Spivac (-142) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+120)

Spivac got a quick tap on Marcin Tybura in a main event last August (see it here). He suffered crushing TKOs before and after that, though. Before it was Ciryl Gane (see it here) and after it was Jailton Almeida (see it here).

Cortes-Acosta, meanwhile, is on a four-fight win streak with wins over Ryan Spann, Robelis Despaigne, Andrei Arlovski and Lukaksz Brzeski.

“Salsa Boy” has waltzed through most of his opponents so far and has rarely looked in any trouble (other than his loss to the underrated Marcos Rogerio de Lima). He fights with a very casual style that seems ripe to be taken advantage by someone who is actually good.

I don’t know if that’s Spivac, though.

Spivac will be wanting to get Cortes-Acosta down and threaten him with submissions. He lands a ridiculous 4.56 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 65 percent accuracy clip. Those numbers are a little elevated because we’re in the Heavyweight division and so many of these guys stink at defending takedowns.

Cortes-Acosta can defend a takedown, though. He has a very good 66 percent takedown defense. The only person who was able to bother him that respect was Rogerio de Lima.

Cortes-Acosta has the better striking in this match-up. But, he doesn’t have the kind of power or tenacity that we’ve seen end Spivac’s night before.

I think we’re in for a fight where a lot of what these guys are best at gets canceled out. Because of that I’m looking at this fight going to a decision.

Best bet: Fight goes the distance (+150)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Khaos Williams (-192) vs. Andreas Gustafsson (+160)

Williams saw Albert Tadevosyan and Uros Medic fall out of this match before it was rescued by Andreas Gustafsson (who saw his fight with Trevin Giles cancelled on fight day last week).

Williams was choked unconscious by Gabriel Bonfim in his last fight (see it here). Before that, he starched Carlston Harris with a right hook.

Gustafsson is coming off Contender Series, where he TKO’d Pat Pytlik. Giles was the third opponent he’s lost as he’s tried to make his proper UFC debut.

This is a really hard fight to pick. We really don’t know what Gustafsson brings at this level. The oddsmakers are favoring Williams to get the job done quickly.

The round total is set for 1.5 here. I think that’s too low. After his last fight, Williams should be looking for a more patient start.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-154)

UFC 316 Early ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC

Ariane da Silva (+410) vs. Wang Cong (-550)

da Silva (formerly Lipski) has dropped her last two. In Nov. 2024, she was dominated and submitted by Jasmine Jasudavicius (see it here). Before that, she lost a decision to Karine Silva. The former KSW champion is now 6-7 in UFC.

Cong, conversely, overwhelmed Bruna Brasil for a unanimous decision in February. That was a comeback fight for her after she was shocked by Gabriella Fernandes in Macau (see it here). Wang was the -950 favorite in that fight, but was wobbled by Fernandes and then submitted. This came after Wang announced herself with a 62 second destruction of Victoria Leonardo (see it here).

This is another bout where Wang is a massive favorite. I can get behind that. She looked much improved in the Brasil fight. And Da Silva has really regressed lately. I don’t think we’re going to see Wang score another big knockout, though (that win in her debut was down more to her opponent than her, in my opinion).

I’m taking Wang on the moneyline, but only because that’s the only line available at this time of writing. If the round total is set at 2.5 the over might be worth a play.

Best bet: Wang Cong moneyline (-550)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Jeka Saragih (+370) vs. Joo Sang Yoo (-485)

Seragih was TKO’d by Anshul Jubli in the Road to UFC tournament (will reference him again later). Seragih then beat Lucas Alexander via first round technical knockout (see it here). Then, he was submitted by Westin Wilson.

Yoo, meanwhile, is a 31-year-old debutante (I thought Dana said they didn’t sign guys in their thirties?). Yoo has a perfect record (8-0), amassed entirely in South Korea.

Vegas seems very sold on Joo’s exploits in ZFN. The round total for this one is 1.5 and the under is +100 (the over is -130).

Saragih is a real feast or famine guy. I think this fight will be over quickly. I’m not sure if Saragih will be the hammer or the nail, though.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-130)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Quillan Salkilld (-575) vs. Yanal Ashmouz (+425)

Salkilld turned Anshul Jubli into a meme earlier this year. Indeed, the Aussie KO’d Jubli, who famously said he could kn ockout or submit Khabib Nurmagomedov, in 19 seconds (see it here). That was Salkilld’s first fight since winning on Contender Series last September.

Ashmouz, on the other hand, took a patient and professional decision over Tevor Peek in his last fight, back in September. Before that he dropped a decision to Chris Duncan. That Duncan loss is the only loss in his pro career.

This is a very interesting line given we’ve seen very little of Salkilld and that his best moment in the Octagon was against a fighter who is quite a few rungs below UFC calibre. Ashmouz looked very well rounded against Peek and he’s never been stopped before.

Salkilld’s reach and momentum are factors I care about, though. I think Salkilld probably gets this, but I don’t think Ashmouz is totally out of his league.

Ashmouz was able to stay out of Peek’s wheelhouse for a whole fight. I fancy him to survive this one with Salkilld, but perhaps drop the decision.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-175)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

MarQuel Mederos (-205) vs. Mark Choinski (+170)

Mederos withdrew from his fight last week with Bolaji Oki (details here). UFC must have really liked his doctor’s note, because he’s been slid into UFC 316 and given a total newcomer as an opponent.

No doghouse for him, I guess.

Mederos beat Austin Hubbard, by split decision, as a late replacement in March (that might have given him some brownie points with the promotion). Before that, he defeated Landon Quinones via decision.

The 29-year-old Mark Choinski was the Anthony Pettis Fighting Championship Lightweight champ until he presumably vacated that belt for his chance at fighting in the Octagon. He’s undefeated (8-0) with most his fights coming under Pettis’ banner.

Mederos should be able to take this.

Best bet: MarQuel Mederos moneyline (-205)

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC

UFC 316 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action ...

Two-fight parlay: Kevin Holland + Kelvin Gastelum (+448)

Can Kevin and Kelvin both get it done? I’m pretty confident that Holland will be able to out-strike Luque and take a comfortable decision there, if not a late stoppage. Gastelum is a much riskier bet. I’m taking him because I think Pyfer is due to be exposed. Gastelum has seen everything Pyfer can do before and I think he’s got plenty left in the tank (he’s still just in his early thirties!).

Merab Dvalishvili to win by submission (+900)

I know I’ve already stated that I’m pretty sure Dvalishvili gets a decision here. But, the odds on the submission are really tempting and I can see a scenario where O’Malley gets too tried and too demoralized to prevent a back take and defend an RNC in the fifth round. He looked miserable in the fourth and fifth during the first fight. If, after nine months of training for this rematch, everything feels the same, I think O’Malley’s head could drop and could be susceptible to a finish late on.

Kayla Harrison vs. Julianna Pena to end in Round 5 (+1100)

This bet is based on the scenario that Harrison fights a very conservative/boring fight for 4.5 rounds and then seizes on a tired Pena for either a ground-and-pound technical knockout or a submission (an armbar, perhaps?).

Remember that Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 316 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 316: “Merab vs. O’Malley 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

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