Top Betting Props, Parlays, and Picks for UFC Des Moines: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo

UFC Des Moines is live this weekend (Sat., May 3, 2025), featuring Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo in the main event. Checkout the odds for that top Welterweight clash (and much more) right here!

UFC Des Moines goes down this weekend (Sat., May 3, 2025) inside Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines, Iowa. The ESPN2/ESPN+-streamed main event has Cory Sandhagen vs. Deiveson Figueiredo in the main event, with both men hoping to creep toward the title picture at Bantamweight. Neither man has ever faced Merab Dvalishvili nor Sean O’Malley, and they are set to fight for that title later this month.

UFC Des Moines’ co-main event has “heavy” Bo Nickal taking on his biggest test to date. The much-hyped super prospect will be taking on former ONE champion, Reinier de Ridder (who has looked pretty fun since joining UFC). Also on the main card is Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Daniel Rodriguez, Montel Jackson vs. Daniel Marcos, Cameron Smotherman vs. Serhiy Sidey and Mason Jones versus returning Iowa-native, Jeremy Stephens.

UFC Des Moines’ “Prelims” are headlined by former UFC women’s Bantamweight champion, Miesha Tate, versus the much-improved, Yana Santos. The undercard also has Marina Rodriguez vs. Gillian Robertson and Ryan Loder vs. Azamat Bekoev.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Des Moines Main Card Money Line Odds

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Cory Sandhagen (-550) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+375)

Last time out Sandhagen, again, seemed to hit his ceiling at Bantamweight. “Sandman” seems to have made a habit out of going on a good run before losing the fight that would earn him a Bantamweight title shot. Most recently, his chance to fight for the strap was scuppered by Umar Nurmagomedov. That fight, in Abu Dhabi last year, was close, but Nurmagomedov was still the clear winner. Sandhagen surprisingly lost the striking battle against Nurmagomedov and was taken down five times, though was never controlled nor pinned down on the ground.

That loss came after wins over Rob Font, Marlon Vera and Song Yadong.

Figueiredo lost to Petr Yan back in Nov. 2024. That was his first loss since moving up to 135 pounds. Prior to that, he had beaten Font, Cody Garbrandt (by submission — see it here) and Vera.

Against Yan in Macau, Figueiredo was well beaten. He struggled to keep up with Yan’s boxing and especially his uppercuts in the clinch. Figueiredo did have Yan hurt on occasion, but not enough to swing the fight in his direction.

If you’re not a title contender at Bantamweight, I don’t think you can beat Sandhagen. And I don’t think Figueiredo is a title challenger in this division.

When you consider Sandhagen is six inches taller, has a reach advantage and is five years younger than Figueiredo, then this match-up really starts to look like an uphill battle for the Brazilian.

Sandhagen’s activity, on the feet, should be too much for Figueiredo (just like Yan’s was). I also think that Sandhagen might be able to do with his knees what Yan did with his uppercuts.

The best way to nulify Sandhagen is to make him defend takedowns. Figueiredo will be too small to seriously threaten him in that respect. Sandhagen also has a very good takedown defense of 63 percent (he held Nurmagomedov to just five of 13 takedowns).

Obviously, I’m not alone in thinking this is Sandhagen’s fight to lose. He’s one of the bigger favorites we’ve seen in a main event slot this year.

I’ve taken the point spread in a few main events this year. I’ve gone with the points on both occasions. I lost with Diego Lopes +5.5, but won with Carlos Prates +5.5 last week. This time around, I’m liking the Sandhagen -5.5. And that’s because I struggle to believe that Figueiredo will be able to take a round off him. And I think there’s an outside shot that Sandhagen will be able to finish this fight with one of his patented flying knees (which are extra affective against smaller opponents).

Best bet: Cory Sandhagen -5.5 (-175)

Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Reinier de Ridder (+260) vs. Bo Nickal (-340)

Nickal moved to 7-0 after his last fight. That’s about the only good thing we can say about it, though. Indeed, he took a ho-hum decision over Paul Craig in one of the most dull and disappointing fights of the year back in Nov. 2024. He squeaked past Craig with a decision despite being a -1350 favorite.

In the fight, the hot-shot wrestler with great submissions attempted zero takedowns. Instead, we got to watch him box. Lucky for him, that meant we had to watch Craig box, too. The pair of them combined to land barely 100 strikes over the three rounds.

de Ridder has been much more fun lately. In January, he took down and submitted Kevin Holland in the first round (see it here). Before that, he won a wild fight with Gerald Meerschaert, also winning by submission (see it here).

I’m really worried that — if Nickal gets his way — this fight could be an epic snorefest.

The only explanation for Nickal’s performance against Craig is that he believed he had the better striking and that he didn’t want to risk Craig landing a submission off his back. De Ridder’s submissions are far more dangerous than Craig’s and his boxing is about as bad.

Does this mean that Nickal is going to make this another boring stand-up fight?

I sure hope not. de Ridder seems to be suggesting that he wants to grapple and put on a show on the ground. I just don’t think Nickal cares about that. He might just want to go 8-0 the easiest way possible.

I think Vegas has similar thoughts about Nickal wanting to keep this fight standing and eek out a decision. They have set the round total at 2.5, which is very high for a Nickal fight. The over is +100 and the under is -130.

Fight to go the distance also has conservative odds at just +140. That’s despite de Ridder only going to a decision twice in his 21-fight career and Nickal having all finishes until he coasted past Craig.

I’m very tempted to take the underdog in this bout for the sake of fun. But, I just can’t shake this feeling that Nickal is going to sap all the fun out of this one and we’re going to watch terrible kickboxing for 15 minutes.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (+100)

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Santiago Ponznibbio (-120) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (Evens)

Ponzinibbio came through a bruising affair with Carlston Harris in his last fight, earning a standing technical knockout in the third round (see it here). That was his first win since he KO’d Alex Morono back in 2022 (see it here).

Rodriguez’s last fight was against Morono, taking a split decision back in Oct. 2024. It was a surprisingly mediocre performance from Rodriguez given how terrible Morono looked before (against Niko Price) and after (against Carlos Leal) that fight. That win for Rodriguez came after back-to-back-to-back losses to Kelvin Gastelum, Ian Machado Garry and Neil Magny. Garry and Magny both finished Rodriguez (despite neither being considered much of a finisher at this stage of their careers).

Rodriguez is a volume striker, but he doesn’t bring much power to his punches. Ponzinibbio is more powerful, but lands at a lesser rate (4.8 significant strikes per-minute compared to 7.5). Ponzinibbio also takes more damage than Rodriguez does.

We’re likely to see a pure striking battle here with a lot of action in the clinch and against the fence. Ponzinibbio will be more willing to brawl and take chances and Rodriguez will likely land a decent amount of shots on him off the counter. Because of Rodriguez’s lack of finishing power, I think Ponzinibbio will walk through those counters and they won’t dissuade him from being the aggressor.

If this goes to a decision, Rodriguez’s pitter-patter shots might be enough to get a decision. But I also think there’s a chance that Ponzinibbio will land something hard in the exchanges and could finish Rodriguez late on.

The round total for this one is set at 2.5. The over is -200 and the under is +154. I’m thinking over here with this likely going to a decision.

Because of how these two strike, I think there’s a chance for some variance on the scorecards. Rodriguez might land the more shots, but Ponzinibbio might land the harder shots. Judges might disagree on which of these approaches are more deserving of a win and we might get a split or majority decision.

Fight to be won by split or majority decision is +350 and I like the sound of that. Also, two of Rodriguez’s last decisions were splits.

Best bet: Fight to be won by split or majority decision (+350)

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Montel Jackson (-210) vs. Daniel Marcos (+175)

It’s been a while since we saw Jackson. His last fight was in July. That’s when he crushed Da’Mon Blackshear in 18 seconds and earned a “Performance of the Night” bonus (see it here). The value of that win has risen considerably since then, given the run Blackshear has been on.

Prior to that, he TKO’d poor old Rani Yahya in the first round (see it here).

The undefeated Marcos has quietly put together a 4-0 record in UFC. Last time out, he took a split decision over Adrian Yanez.

This could be a very good fight and I like Jackson’s chances of taking Marcos’ “O.”

Both men have good striking, but Jackson does a better job of landing his stuff and then getting out the way. Marcos will stay in the pocket and trade shots with his opponents. He’s won those exchanges, thus far, but he’s been fighting guys who are best at things other than striking (guys like Yanez and John Castaneda).

Marcos cannot leave his chin out there against Jackson.

Jackson is also much bigger than Marcos. He’s three inches taller and has six inches of reach on him. I think that’s going to be telling, given how good Jackson’s boxing is. I think he might be able to keep Marcos at the end of his jab, frustrate him, and then rip him with a counter when Marcos tries to crash forwards into the pocket.

In addition to all his striking prowess, Jackson is also a good wrestler. He lands 3.41 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a success rate of over 70 percent.

Marcos’ takedown defense is elite at 88 percent, so we might not see too much wrestling in this fight. Even so, I think Jackson’s striking is enough to get the win here.

Best bet: Montel Jackson moneyline (-210)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Cameron Smotherman (+115) vs. Serhiy Sidey (-135)

Smotherman came in on short notice for his UFC debut in Oct. 2024. That didn’t seem to bother him, though. He was able to get a decision over Jake Hadley and send the Englishman packing for PFL.

Sidey, meanwhile, is 1-1 since graduating off Contender Series. Both those fights have ended in split decisions.

This is another fight that will be contested pretty much entirely on the feet. However, if Smotherman is smart, he would have been training wrestling for this fight and be looking to expose Sidey’s woeful takedown defense.

If these two are going to brawl it out, I can see it going either way. Like Vegas, I slightly favor Sidey, though. Sidey is longer than Smotherman and is a little more technical with his striking.

The round total for this one is 2.5 rounds. The over is -180 and the under is +140. I like the over, as I think we’re in for another close fight that goes the distance.

Ultimately, I’m just taking Sidey here — favoring him for his length and his better results/experiences in the Octagon.

Best bet: Serhiy Sidey moneyline (-135)

Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images

Jeremy Stephens (+400) vs. Mason Jones (-600)

UFC have pulled Stephens off a Des Moines barstool to try and get a big crowd pop at the beginning of the main card. Stephens last fought for the promotion in 2021, being submitted by Mateusz Gamrot (see it here). That was Stephen’s 18th loss in UFC.

Since then, he’s underwhelmed in PFL (1-2), boxed Jose Aldo to a draw, and gotten some wins in BKFC. In January, he was able to elicit a corner stoppage when fighting Eddie Alvarez at Kuckle Mania 5.

Despite how long he’s been in the game, “Lil’ Heathen” is still just 38.

Jones doesn’t have nearly as interesting a resume as Stephens. Though, he is a better fighter at this stage of their careers (as reflected by the massive difference in their odds).

Jones was released from UFC in 2022 after going 1-2 (with one no contest). In retrospect, those performances were pretty okay, though. He lost a “Fight of the Night” to a prime Mike Davis in 2021. He then beat David Onama (who looked pretty good this past weekend). His loss on the way out the UFC door was to L’udovit Klein by decision. Klein is undefeated since then, with wins over Iganacio Bahamondes and Thiago Moises.

Jones’ time away from the Octagon has been spent dominating Cage Warriors. He’s gone 4-0 in his recent stint (improving his overall record to 12-0 in the yellow gloves).

Jones has flourished in his time away. Stephens is on a three-fight win streak himself, but in BKFC, you still take a lot of damage even in victory.

Honestly, I think Jones is going to run through Stephens here. If he’s in a smart mood, he’ll take Stephens down early and beat him up on the ground towards a submission or technical knockout victory.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-130)

UFC Des Moines ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Yana Santos (+125) vs. Miesha Tate (-150)

Tate has been on a long hiatus since she returned from retirement in 2021. In her comeback fight she beat Marion Reneau (someone who was heading into retirement herself). Tate was then badly beat up by Ketlen Vieira and Lauren Murphy. She took a year off and came back to beat Julia Avila by submission (see it here). That was in December 2023.

Santos looked great in her last fight. She picked apart Chelsea Chandler and showed a lot of aggression to earn a unanimous decision. That snapped a three fight losing skid for the former Invicta champion. During that streak she was stopped by Irene Aldana.

These fighters’ combined ages are 73, so I don’t expect a lot of output from either in this fight. I think we’re going to see a pretty low intensity kickboxing match. Tate, who in her prime had good takedowns, should probably try and get this to the ground. At 38, though, I’m not sure she has the power to do that.

Tate is the favorite here and I think that’s based on name value. I think Santos is going to use her kicks and jab to keep Tate at range and cruise to a decision win.

Constant readers of this column will also know how much I don’t like fighters with over a year lay-off. Last week Giga Chikadze added his name to the growing list of returning fighters who, in 2025, just didn’t seem able to get out of first gear. That list also has Marvin Vettori, Jan Blachowicz, Rafael Fiziev and Josh Emmett on it.

Best bet: Yana Santos moneyline (+125)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Azamat Bekoev (-395) vs. Ryan Loder (+310)

Loder used his wrestling skills and impressive frame to dominate Robert Valentin on the ground to earn the latest TUF glass obelisk.

Bekoev graduated from “one of the best fighters outside the UFC” ranks to winning UFC debutant in January. He came in on short notice and sliced through Zach Reese without too much trouble (see his TKO here).

Bekoev, a former Legacy Fighting Alliance (LFA) champion, is the big favorite here. And I think that’s an indictment of how poorly rated The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) is as a talent factory.

Loder is the last of his graduating class to compete since the show wrapped. He was supposed to fight Cody Brundage in March, but pulled out due to injury.

Since he beat Valentin, we’ve seen Valentin lose to Torrez Finney in what might be the worst fight of the year. We’ve also seen other cast members being thoroughly out-classed. The only TUF 32 fighter with a win of note is Mairon Santos, who benefitted from terrible judging.

Loder has very nice wrestling, but it seems like that’s all he’s got.

Bekoev has his foundational sambo wrestling. But, he also has nasty striking, both on his feet and on the ground.

I think his wrestling is enough to balance out Loder’s. And when that happens, his striking will be there to take over the fight.

Best bet: Azamat Bekoev moneyline (-395)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Marina Rodriguez (+260) vs. Gillian Robertson (-325)

Robertson has been in dominating form lately. She controlled Luana Pinheiro from bell-to-bell in her last fight back in Nov. 2024. She did the same to retire Michelle Waterson-Gomez last June (turning her to a bloody pulp in the process). Before that, she flattened and pounded out Polyana Viana (see it here).

In the other corner, Rodriguez — who is 38 and nine years older than Robertson — is coming off back-to-back split decision losses to Iasmin Lucindo and Jessica Andrade. Her only win in the last three years is a technical knockout over Waterson-Gomez. Her recent form makes it easy to forget that she had a nice purple patch in 2021-22 where she finished Amanda Ribas (see it here) and beat Mackenzie Dern and Yan Xiaonan (both of whom have improved a lot since then).

I think a lot of the fire that made Rodriguez so hard to handle on the feet has left her because of age. Without the threat of getting hurt on the feet, I think Robertson is going to have an easy time taking her down and then dominating her on the ground.

Rodriguez’s takedown defense is historically very good at 62 percent, but Lucindo took her down on three out of four attempts in her last fight.

At this time of writing there’s no prop for Robertson by submission. That would be my best bet. Without that, though, I’m just taking my fellow Canadian on the moneyline.

Best bet: Gillian Robertson moneyline (-325)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Gaston Bolanos (-150) vs. Quang Le (+125)

Bolanos looked decent in taking a unanimous decision over Cortavious Romious in his last fight. That saw him rebound from a standing technical knockout loss to Marcus McGhee.

Le, on the other hand, was face planted by Xiao Long at UFC Macau for his first career technical knockout loss back in Nov. 2024 (see it here). Prior to that, he lost a decision to Chris Gutierrez. He came in on short notice for that one and looked competitive.

Both of these fighters are well-rounded and not particularly exciting in any one dimension of MMA. I think this could lead to a close, but not terribly action-filled fight, that ends in a decision.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-180)

Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC

Don’Tale Mayes (+215) vs. Thomas Petersen (-265)

I’m not looking forward to having to sit through this one. Mayes lost via first round heel hook against Valter Walker last time out (see it here). But, that broke a streak of three fights that went the distance and were completely unwatchable.

Petersen is coming off a knockout loss to Shamil Gaziev in Saudi Arabia (see that here). Prior to that, he took a decision over Mohammad Usman. Petersen is faster and more athletic than most Heavyweights, but that’s still not saying a lot.

I think this fight will look a lot like that Usman fight, with Petersen landing combos and Mayes throwing just single shots that fail to connect.

Best bet: Thomas Petersen moneyline (-265)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Juliana Miller (+195) vs. Ivana Petrovic (-240)

Miller is a TUF season 30 grad. She’s only 3-3 in her pro career with her lone UFC win is over Brogan Walker (to win TUF). She’s coming off losses to Luana Santos (via technical knockout) and Veronica Hardy (by decision).

Petrovic, meanwhile, is 1-2 in UFC. She’s lost to Jamey-Lyn Horth and Luana Carolina. Her win is over Na Liang (possible the worst fighter, other than C.M. Punk, to ever make it to a UFC roster).

Petrovic is bigger than Miller and that should help out her wrestling game.

Best bet: Ivana Petrovic moneyline (-240)

Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC Des Moines Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action.

Reinier de Ridder to win by submission (+750)

There’s still a lot we don’t know about Nickal. At UFC Des Moines, he’s fighting his best opponent to date and someone who is very dangerous in the area that Nickal is best in. Earlier, I said I think Nickal is going to give us a repeat of his boring stand up fight with Craig. However, if RDR can get this to the ground, we might see some nutty scrambles and I don’t think it’s impossible to think he might end up on Nickal’s back and be good enough to get the tap. I think that’s worth believing at these odds, at least.

Santiago Ponzinibbio by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 3 (+1800)

I think Ponzinibbio and Rodriguez are going to go toe-to-toe for this fight. In that scenario, I think Ponzinibbio has the clear power advantage. He doesn’t have one-shot knockout power anymore, but I think he will wear on Rodriguez as the fight goes on. And I think in the third round there’s a chance that Ponzinibbio is able to sneak in one too many power shots for Rodriguez’s liking.

Two-bet parlay: Corey Sandhagen, Montel Jackson to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+1835)

I can’t believe how high the odds are on this one. Sandhagen to beat Figueiredo by strikes is +330 and and Jackson to beat Marcos by strikes is +350. I really like the chances of both of those things happening. Figueiredo is tough as nails (only technical knockout loss in his career is due to an eye injury). But, Sandhagen’s knee is not an ordinary strike. And I think that knee will be there for him all night, on the smaller man who was getting clocked with uppercuts in the clinch all night against PYan. I like Jackson’s chances of getting a knockout because his striking is so clean and I see him landing a nice counter on Marcos who will be hoping for an all striking battle.

Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Des Moines fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” undercard bouts at 7 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 10 p.m. ET.

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Des Moines news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here.

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