Top Betting Props, Parlays, and Picks for UFC 315 | Belal vs. Jack Della

UFC 315 is live this weekend (Sat., May 10, 2025), featuring a pay-per-view (PPV) main event of Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena for the Welterweight title. Checkout the odds for that title fight (and much more) right here!

UFC 315 goes down this weekend (Sat., May 10, 2025) inside Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec, Canada. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event sees UFC’s Welterweight title on the line with Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena. If something happens to one of those guys in the lead-up, though, Ian Machado Garry will be waiting in the wings.

And at the scale.

UFC 315’s co-main event has a title on the line, too, with Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot for Shevchenko’s Flyweight crown. This is Shevchenko’s first defense during this current reign, having wrested the belt back from Alex Grasso at The Sphere last year. Grasso is on this card, too, taking on Natalia Silva.

Also on UFC 315’s PPV main card is Benoit Saint Denis vs. Kyle Prepolec and Jose Aldo vs. Aiemann Zahabi.

UFC 315’s “Prelims” are build on the Canada vs. The World theme. They are headlined by Mike Malott vs. Charles Radtke. There’s also Jasmine Jasudavicius vs. Jessica Andrade and Modestas Bukauskas vs. Ion Cutelaba.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC 315 Main Card Money Line Odds

Photo by Matt Jelonek/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC

Belal Muhammad (-180) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (+150)

Muhammad comes into Montreal for his first-ever UFC Welterweight title defense. He earned the belt by mopping the floor with Leon Edwards in London last summer. There had been some rumblings that the win was because of Edwards having an off-night (due to the weirdness in how that fight was scheduled). However, after Edwards was dismantled by Sean Brady, it feels more like Muhammad simply had his number (even if he looked a distant second best in their first fight before it ended because of an eye poke).

With that Edwards win, Muhammad is now on a 10-fight win streak. His last loss was a decision to Geoff Neal back in 2019.

Della Maddalena, though, is on quite the streak of his own. He lost his first two professional bouts, but has been undefeated in his last 12. Eight of those fights have been inside a UFC Octagon. Most recently, he brutalized Gilbert Burns in a way we’re not used to seeing before earning the technical knockout (see it here).

This match-up is pretty easy to breakdown. Muhammad does his best work up close. Della Maddalena does his best work at-range. Where this fight takes place will likely determine the winner.

If Muhammad is able to crash through range and get Della Maddalena against the fence and onto the ground, he’ll likely win a decision.

If Della Maddalena can keep Muhammad at range with his jab and light him up with counters when he does try and crash through range, he’ll likely win by stoppage.

Both men are very skilled and very disciplined, so there is a third scenario which may play out ... total boredom. Muhammad might have too much respect for Della Maddalena’s power and hand speed and that might prevent him from charging into a clinch. And Della Maddalena might have too much respect for Muhammad’s takedowns and thus not be too aggressive with his striking. If that happens we might have rounds which are just staring contests, interrupted by leg kicks.

If we see a situation where there is a little bit of Muhammad looking for a takedown and there is a little bit of Della Maddalena getting his offense off from distance, I favor the Aussie to make more of an impact.

Della Maddalena’s striking is elite and very fun to watch. He lands a lot of significant strikes per-minute (6.74). That’s second in the division behind Daniel Rodriguez. He’s also second in significant striking differential (behind Michael Morales) and second in knockdowns per 15 mins (behind Carlos Prates). He leads the division in significant striking defense with 66.7 percent. There is no one in the division as well represented as “JDM” across volume, power and defensive striking metrics.

Plainly, if someone is going to find a way to hurt Muhammad on the feet, no one stands a better chance of doing that than Della Maddalena.

Della Maddalena also has very good takedown defense (70 percent) to wager against Muhammad’s 39 percent takedown accuracy. I think Muhammad is going to struggle to take Della Maddalena down and things will only get harder if he takes a few hard shots on the feet. That being said, Muhammad doesn’t need takedowns to do damage. He’s a bully, so he can suck up a lot of control time on the fence and do plenty of damage there, too.

Muhammad can also exhaust his opponents in ways that don’t show up on the stat sheet. Della Maddalena has never gone five rounds before. I can certainly see Muhammad doing enough grinding through three rounds that Della Maddalena is drained in the fourth and fifth.

The oddsmakers are favoring Muhammad slightly in this one. They also think it will go the distance with the round total set at 4.5 and the over at -195.

I hate to be repetitive, but this is going to be my fourth main event in a row where I’m utilizing the point spread. Della Maddalena +5.5 is -165. This covers me if he’s able to get that stoppage and if there is a close decision either way. I think there is a strong possibility this goes the distance and that there are very tight scores, maybe even a split decision. I think we get there if there are rounds where Della Maddalena hurts or knocks down Muhammad, but Muhammad is still able to get lots of control time in those rounds.

In the past few events I was right on Cory Sandhagen -5.5 and Prates +5.5 and wrong on Diego Lopes +5.5.

Best bet: Jack Della Maddalena +5.5 (-190)

Valentina Shevchenko (+114) vs. Manon Fiorot (-135)

Vegas is favoring, just slightly, Shevchenko to lose her Flyweight title on Saturday night. She’s got plus odds here for the second time in a row. She was +100 against Alexa Grasso last time out, but then she thoroughly dominated her rival for a shutout on the scorecards. The only other time Shevchenko has had plus odds is when she debuted against Sarah Kaufman in 2015. She won that fight by split decision. She had minus odds in both her fights with Amanda Nunes, both of which were close decision losses.

Meanwhile, Fiorot lost her professional debut to Leah McCourt in 2018 and has been undefeated ever since. In UFC she announced herself with stoppages of Victoria Leonardo (see that here) and Tabatha Ricci (see that here). The finishes have dried up since then and she’s taken unanimous decisions over Mayra Bueno Silva, Rose Namajunas and — most recently — Erin Blanchfield.

Both these women have a Muay Thai base. However, Shevchenko has added more layers to her game than Fiorot has. That’s largely thanks to Shevchenko having spent so much longer in MMA and having fought so many top level opponents. This was very noticeable in her last fight with Grasso, where she landed eight takedowns and sucked up an incredible 16 minutes of control time.

Fiorot has done an excellent job of defending takedowns. She has an insanely high 93 percent takedown defense. She held Blanchfield, Namajunas and Katlyn Cerminara (nee Chookagian) to zero takedowns in her last three fights (nine attempts).

If you believe Fiorot is going to win this fight you probably have to believe she can stop Shevchenko taking her down and that her striking will do more damage and be more eye-catching than Shevchenko’s.

I’m not there with that. I do think Fiorot’s striking might look nicest on fight night. But I don’t think she can hurt Shevchenko (who has 64 percent defense on significant strikes and absorbs just two of them per-minute).

And I think Shevchenko is going to take her down. Shevchenko has a 64 percent accuracy on her takedowns. The reason she’s able to get them is because she sets them up with strikes. I think it’s going to be hard for Fiorot to see those takedowns coming when she’s enjoying trading strikes with Shevchenko.

I think Fiorot’s gaudy takedown defense stat is due to so many of her opponents being too respectful of her striking and not wanting to get close enough to attempt many takedowns. Shevchenko will respect Fiorot’s striking, but I don’t think she will be overly concerned with it. She will be happy to throw down with her, but I think she’ll also be playing chess in those exchanges, looking for takedown opportunities, off her own feints or Fiorot’s kicks.

You can get Shevchenko at +5.5 for -205. Fiorot is -5.5 for +150. I’m not interested in point spreads here, I usually only take these when I think my fighter can get a stoppage. I’m very certain this one goes the distance. So are Vegas, Over 4.5 rounds is -315 and fight ends in Decision is -280.

Ultimately, I’ll go for Shevchenko to get this one by decision.

Best bet: Valentina Shevchenko by decision (+215)

Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC

Jose Aldo (-198) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+164)

Aldo is back in Canada, the country where he turned Matt Hominick into a hammerhead shark (remember this?). That was in Toronto, though, which can feel like a different planet from Montreal. Aldo also beat Jeremy Stephens via technical knockout in Canada, Calgary to be exact.

And Calgary can feel like a different planet from both Toronto and Montreal.

The Featherweight G.O.A.T. comes into this Bantamweight fight off a split decision loss to Mario Bautista. I scored the fight for Aldo and not just because I was protesting Bautista’s extremely negative style of fighting. Before that bout Aldo beat Jonathan Martinez in his return to Rio.

In Montreal he meets hometown fighter Aiemann Zahabi. Zahabi has quietly put together a five-fight win streak. The best name on that list is Pedro Munhoz, who he took a decision over back in Nov. 2024.

Zahabi has been a feature of UFC’s Canadian cards since 2017. He’s 6-2 in the promotion (12-2) overall. Despite only having 14 fights in his career, Zahabi turns 38 this year. Aldo is a year and 29 fights older than him.

Full disclosure, WEC Aldo is my favorite fighter ever. So, I do have a bit of bias whenever looking at his match-ups, even in this late stage of his career. Frankly, though, Aldo has earned some of that bias by continuing to look like a very good (though, not elite) fighter in this final act.

And I’m not alone. Aldo is a pretty decent-sized favorite against Zahabi, who is a well-rounded fighter, but he’s not exceptional at anything.

Even at his advanced age, Aldo still has exceptional takedown defense (ask Merab Dvalishvili) and he can show flashes of his once awe-inspiring striking.

I think we’re going to see a kickboxing fight here and without the threat of a takedown (Zahabi completes just 0.16 takedowns per 15 minutes), Aldo might let his leg kicks loose.

I’m betting on near classic Aldo showing up in Montreal and getting past a star-struck Zahabi with a convincing decision.

Best bet: Jose Aldo moneyline (-198)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Alexa Grasso (+210) vs. Natalia Silva (-258)

Grasso lost her title, in pretty convincing fashion, to Valentina Shevchenko at Sphere last year. Her last three fights have been against the current Flyweight champ. She’s 1-1-1 against her and might earn another title shot if she beats Natalia Silva this weekend (though that’s due to the lack of depth in the division more than anything else).

Silva, on the other hand, got past Jessica Andrade in Sept. 2024 to extend her win streak to 12. The best win in there is a decision over Jasmine Jasudavicius back in 2022 (Jasudavicius hasn’t lost since then).

I think Grasso has the right to feel disrespected by these betting lines. The only times she’s had odds longer than this were in her first fight with Shevchenko (+750), which she won and with her fight with Tatiana Suarez (+450), which she lost by submission (see it here).

Putting Silva in a category with Suarez and Shevchenko (who Grasso was favored to beat in their trilogy fight) shows a lot of faith in the 28-year-old Brazilian.

I favor Silva in this match-up, too, but this is a pick ‘em for me. Silva has looked good, but Grasso is a fighter you should never count out. She’s capable of uncorking a knockdown or a submission out of nowhere. She also knows how to win fights and has been in there with the best opponent’s available. Grasso will also have a little bit of size on Silva (something she doesn’t get a lot of the time).

Silva’s odds might be due to how she handled Andrade last time out, where she landed 117 significant strikes to Andrade’s 50. That disparity is due to Andrade’s famous lack of Fight IQ, which saw her walk forwards and get tagged over and over again. Grasso isn’t going to do that.

The current lines available on this fight are just the moneyline and the round total, which is set at 2.5. The over is predictably absurd at -500. I’d love a point spread on Grasso, because I think we’re in for a close decision. I’ll just take the silly moneyline on Silva, though.

Best bet: Natalia Silva moneyline (-258)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Benoit Saint Denis (-900) vs. Kyle Prepolec (+600)

Saint Denis’ homecoming was ruined at UFC Paris last year thanks to a one-sided beating at the hands of Renato Moicano. That fight ended at the end of the second round due to extreme swelling around both of Saint Denis’ eyes (see that here). Before that fight, “BSD” was stopped by Dustin Poirier (see that here). Those losses have helped erase memories of Saint Denis’ hot start to UFC life where he went 5-1 with five stoppages and three “Performance of the Night” awards.

Saint Denis was preparing to fight the wildly impressive Joel Alvarez in la belle province. However, the Spaniard had to withdraw. Stepping in is Prepolec, who is is not a total unknown. He went winless (0-2) in UFC back in 2019. Since then, he’s been fighting in Canada’s regional scene.

Saint Denis should thank his lucky stars he doesn’t have Alvarez to deal with this weekend. I think Alvarez is a top ten fighter and someone who can make some noise at the very top of the Lightweight division.

Saint Denis teased he might be one of those guys, but it’s hard to believe that now after Poirier finished him with 28 strikes and Moicano rendered him unrecognizable with 50. You can’t survive at the top of Lightweight with that lack of durability.

Saint Denis should win this fight. He probably will win this fight. But, I just feel like fading him. He’s coming off two brutal losses. He’s had a late opponent switch and now the pressure is on him to dominate a guy they pulled off the street. I think the vibes might be off and at that price, I’m willing to take a punt with Prepolec.

Best bet: Kyle Prepolec moneyline (+600)

UFC 315 Late ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Mike Malott (-192) vs. Charles Radtke (+160)

Malott’s rise was stunted by Neil Magny in 2024. The veteran managed to survive an early onslaught before finishing the Canadian late in round three (see that here). Malott has rebounded from that with a win over Trevin Giles.

Radtke’s lone UFC loss was because of a perfectly-placed Carlos Prates knee (see that here). Otherwise, he’s been perfect, winning three fights (two via knockout). Last time out, he blew away Matthew Semelsberger with strikes in less than one minute.

I’m not terribly sold on Malott. He has good, but not great, grappling and his striking is a little robotic. He’s also peaked, at 33, before he’s gotten a chance to do much in the sport.

Radtke is similar in that he’s 34 and doesn’t have many fights to his name. However, I think his striking is pretty good and there’s a chance he’ll be able to hurt Malott.

Radtke has never been taken down in UFC, but I think that’s due to the opponents he’s faced. Malott can probably get him there and he might be able to work a submission.

This is one of only a few fights on the card where I’m feeling confident of a finish. Unfortunately Vegas are on the same wave-length. They have the round total at 1.5. If it was 2.5 I would have hammered the under. 1.5 rounds is tough, but I still think the under is the play.

Malott has first round finishes over Mickey Gall and Yohan Lainesse. Radkte had first round finishes over Semelsberger and Gilbert Urbina.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-180)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Jessica Andrade (+240) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (-298)

Andrade has now fought in UFC a whopping 28 times! Despite that she’s still just 33 years-old. She’s coming off a Fight of the Night losing effort to Natalia Silva. Before that she took a split decision over Marina Rodriguez and stopped Mackenzie Dern with a brutal one-two (see that here).

Jasudavicius, meanwhile, passed her biggest test to date in her last fight, taking a unanimous decision over former title challenger, Mayra Bueno Silva. That was in Riyadh in February. That extended her win streak to four. That streak includes D’arce choke wins over Ariane da Silva (see it here) and Priscila Cachoeira (see it here).

Jasudavicius is a big favorite here. And I can see why. She has a massive size advantage in this fight. She’s six inches taller and has six inches of reach over Andrade. Andrade has made a career of overcoming this stuff in the past, but she’s a long way from her prime when she was tossing around Rose Namajunas.

I think Jasudavicius is going to get her down. She has a nasty top game, so I think she will be able to stay on top and finish the fight there with ground-and-pound or yet another D’arce choke. Because of that, the under at +114 is too tempting to turn down.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+114)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Modestas Bukauskas (-108) vs. Ion Cutelaba (-112)

Bukauskas — a former Cage Warriors champion — looked great in his last fight, blitzing Raffael Cerqueira and putting him away in just over two minutes. That was only in February. That win followed up his submission win over Marcin Prachnio.

Cutelaba, meanwhile, cashed as a big underdog in his last fight, submitting Ibo Aslan with an arm-triangle (see it here). Before that, he took a split decision over Ivan Erslan. This fight will be Cutelaba’s twentieth with UFC.

This fight could be wild. Both guys have power in their hands and both have been slept before (7 TKO/KO losses combined).

The round total is set at 1.5 rounds with -154 on the over and +120 on the under.

I’m liking Bukauskas straight up in this fight. He has three inches of reach on Cutelaba and I feel like Cutelaba is due for a “let down game” after that stunning win over Aslan.

Best bet: Modestas Bukauskas moneyline (-108)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Navajo Stirling (-188) vs. Ivan Erslan (+145)

Stirling looked just okay in getting past Tuco Tokkos in his UFC debut. Before that he blew away his Contender Series opponent with a KO.

Erslan, on the other hand, debuted opposite Ion Cutelaba in Sept. 2025, dropping a split decision. He came into UFC after a long and notable run in KSW, where he unsuccessfully challenged Tomasz Narkun and then Ibragim Chuzhigaev for the Light Heavyweight title.

Stirling should win this fight, but I’m not sure how impressive he will be. If he pushes for a finish, I think he can get it on Erslan (who lost a first round technical knockout in KSW in 2023).

Stirling is also a lot bigger than Erslan. He’s only two inches taller, but he has a ridiculous seven-inch reach advantage.

Best bet: Navajo Stirling moneyline (-188)

UFC 315 Early ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Marc-Andre Barriault (-145) vs. Bruno Silva (+125)

Barriault is fighting for his UFC contract at UFC 315 (in his home Province). He’s currently on a three-fight losing streak. In his last bout, he was floored by Dustin Soltzfuz (see it here). Before that, he was starched by Joe Pyfer (see it here). Those losses dropped his UFC record to 5-8.

In the other corner, Silva is in the same boat. He’s lost four in a row. Though, his losses weren’t under the same painful circumstances as Barriault’s. He’s lost his last three by unanimous decision, to Ismail Naurdiev, Chris Weidman and Shara Magomedov. Before that, he was submitted by Brendan Allen (see it here). Silva is 4-6 in UFC. He did take Alex Pereira to a decision, though.

Vegas assumes there will be a finish here. The round total is 1.5. The over is -175 and the under is +135. I think the over is more likely and that’s due to Silva. Silva is durable and doesn’t have much power. He’s never been stopped with strikes despite being in there with Poatan and Shara-Bullet.

I think they’ll go deep in this one with Silva withstanding Barriault’s shots, but not being able to put him away himself.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-175)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Daniel Santos (+105) vs. Jeong Yeong Lee (-125)

Santos has had a weird run in UFC. He was signed in 2021, but had fights with Timur Valiev and Marcelo Rojo fall through immediately. He then lost his debut to Julio Arce and rebounded with a knockout knee against John Castaneda. He then beat Johnny Munoz Jr. by decision. That was in June, 2023. Since then, he’s pulled out of fights with Daniel Marcos, Said Nurmagomedov and Davey Grant. His fight with Grant was supposed to be last month, but Santos no showed weigh-in day.

Yeong Lee, on the other hand, decided to play rock ‘em sock ‘em robots with Hyder Amil last summer. That lasted about a minute before Lee was put away (see that here). That spoiled his 2-0 start to his UFC career.

I’m just going to fade Santos because of the inactivity and layoff.

Best bet: Jeong Yeong Lee moneyline (-125)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Brad Katona (+142) vs. Bekzat Almakhan (-170)

Katona lost a close, and very fun, fight to Jean Matsumoto last time out. That dropped his UFC record to 4-4. All eight of his UFC fights have ended in unanimous decisions. His best win during that run was probably against Cody Gibson to win his second TUF title. He did submit Bryce Mitchell and decision Kyler Philips during his first run on TUF. His most notable loss was to current champ Merab Dvalishvili back in 2019.

Almakhan, meanwhile, was dominated by Umar Nurmagomedov in his UFC debut more than one year ago. That dropped his pro record to 11-2. If you look at his page on Tapology, though, you’ll notice ten bouts with footnotes regarding ‘modified rules’.

This line is a little curious to me. I would have had Katona as the favorite. I think Katona can get the takedown and exhaust Almakhan, not quite like Nurmagomedov did, but enough to win the fight.

Best bet: Brad Katona moneyline (+142)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

UFC 315 Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action ...

Two-fight parlay: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena to end in KO/TKO/DQ and Shevchenko vs. Fiorot to end in decision (+307)

This fight rests on a finish in the main event. I think Jack Della Maddalena is capable of hurting and putting away Belal Muhammad early. I also think there’s a chance Muhammad is able to grind out a victory and maybe score a late TKO (Della Maddalena has never fought five rounds). It seems pretty likely that Shevchenko and Fiorot are going to give us five full rounds.

Jack Della Maddalena to Win and Over 4.5 rounds (+450)

What if Della Maddalena gets a late finish? If Della Maddalena does have the gas tank to go the distance, I don’t think it’s very far fetched to imagine him winning it late or via decision. He might hurt Muhammad, but struggle to put him away. Muhammad is, after all, very very tough. This odds seem very high when you can imagine Della Maddelena winning in a variety of ways.

Two-fight parlay: Andrade vs. Jasudavicius Under 2.5 rounds, Malott vs. Radkte Under 1.5 rounds (+413)

This is my appeal to the MMA Gods for finishes on a card which I think it going to have a lot of decisions on it. Jasudavicius is built like her compatriot Gillian Robertson. She gets on top and works. She doesn’t lay and pray, instead she is constantly hunting for a stoppage. Andrade has been finished a lot in her career, including when on the bottom. Malott and Radkte have four first round finishes between them. Things might get nutty in that fight, quickly.

Remember that Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 315 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:30 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 315: “Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

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