UFC 308 is live this weekend (Sat., Oct. 26, 2024). Here’s a look at all the betting line movements as we head back to “Fight Island” and get ready for Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway.
UFC 308 goes down tomorrow (Sat., Oct. 26, 2024) inside Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Arena. The pay-per-view (PPV) main card (see it here) is headlined by Featherweight champion, Ilia Topuria. In his first title defense, he will face former 145-pound champion — and certified BMF — Max Holloway. The co-main event could determine the next Middleweight title challenger, with former roost-ruler, Robert Whittaker, finally meeting Khamzat Chimaev (after cutting it close on the scale).
Rounding out the ESPN+-streamed PPV card are Magomed Ankalaev vs. Aleksandar Rakic, Lerone Murphy vs. Dan Ige and Shara Magomedov vs. Armen Petrosyan.
There’s lots of great fights on UFC 308’s “Prelims,” too. There we’ll see Geoff Neal facing Rafael dos Anjos, Farid Basharat meeting Victor Hugo and Abus Magomedov taking on Brunno Ferreira.
I’ve been watching the lines for all the fights on UFC 308 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below you’ll find all the line movement info since the odds were released (per Best Fight Odds).
UFC 308 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker
Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images
Ilia Topuria (-254 -9.9%) vs. Max Holloway (+202 +18.5%)
The public seem pretty satisfied as Topuria as the favorite in this bout. When lines opened Vegas had him as the -188 favorite and public money has shortened that a little. Holloway opened as a +146 underdog and we have seen his line grow quite a lot. That’s a little surprising.
With popular fighters we usually see public money coming in in their favor. I think some old fashioned nationalism might be balancing that out, though. In addition to popular fighters getting a bump with public money, we also see fighters from smaller MMA nations get a bump with people wanting to back their countryman/woman. Here we could be getting some money in from Holloway fans and that might be getting cancelled out by all the Spanish and Georgian betters who want to ride with their guy.
If you like Holloway in this bout, best to hold off since it seems his line will continue to trend upwards over the next 12 hours. Props which favor Holloway will also be moving the same direction, so there could be some value there with point spreads or finish only bets.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Robert Whittaker (+202 +15.6%) vs. Khamzat Chimaev (-250 -8.1%)
Whittaker opened as a +155 underdog and that’s grown to +202. That shows that there is still a large portion of the public who believe the hype when it comes to Khamzat. Chimaev opened at -195 and that held pretty steady up until fight week, when it became clear Chimaev was present and very likely to compete. Since then more money has come in on him, pushing him down to -250. At this time of writing, his line was starting to shorten slightly, so it could close at shorter odds than that.
When these two were matched up in Saudi Arabia in June the odds were dramatically different. For that aborted match-up Whittaker opened as the -200 favorite and public money flipped him to a +210 underdog. Chimaev opened at +170 and then fell 88.4% to -110.
Chimaev’s line against Kamaru Usman also dramatically fell off. He opened as +170 for that fight and that fell -108.5% to -170. That’s the biggest move I’ve seen since I started watching these. This tells me that there is big public backing for Chimaev (and they place big bets... I wonder if you geolocated those bets whether they would come from a presidential palace in Chechnya... Hmm...).
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Lerone Murphy (-287 -17.9%) vs. Dan Ige (+227 +26%)
Vegas had opened with Murphy at -170 and Ige +142. The public thinks that was too conservative, though. Their money has made this much more of a mismatch, on paper.
The public were right about Murphy in his last fight. He opened at -142 against Edson Barboza. However, the public brought his odds down to -155 before his convincing win over the veteran.
And they were right about Ige in his last fight, too. In his ultra short notice fight with Diego Lopes he opened at +175 and that was pushed up to +250.
Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images
Magomed Ankalaev (-385 -11.2%) vs. Aleksandar Rakic (+293 +24.9%)
Here’s another fight where the public think the oddsmakers were being too conservative. The public is not siding with Rakic, here, pushing him from a +195 dog to a +293 dog (and that will likely be higher come fight time).
This line movement probably stems from the last image of Rakic fighting, which was his TKO loss to Jiri Prochazka (see it here).
Rakic opened as the -170 favorite for that Prochazka fight, but was faded by the public there, too. He closed at -104 odds.
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Shara Magomedov (-168 +12%) vs. Armen Petrosyan (+139 -27.6%)
This is a very interesting line. In this one the public thinks the fight is way closer than the oddsmakers did. Shara’s favorite line has shortened a little, but Petrosyan’s underdog line has come down a lot. He opened at +205, but the public clearly think he is a live dog in this match-up.
For what it’s worth, I’m with the public here. Too bad I couldn’t get him at those +205 odds, though.
UFC 308 ‘Prelims’ Line Movement
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Geoff Neal (-304 -19.6%) vs. Rafael dos Anjos (+238 +28.4%)
The public is not confident in dos Anjos and, based on their betting patterns, they think Neal could hand him a tough loss on Saturday. He opened at +142, but that blew up almost immediately. Neal opened at -170. Good for you if you got him at that price.
This is the second fight in a row where Dos Anjos has been brutally faded by the public. He opened at +142 against Mateusz Gamrot, but that rose 43.8 percent to +375. And the fight itself proved the public right, with Gamrot mopping the floor with the former champ.
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Myktybek Orolbai (-321 -39.9%) vs. Mateusz Rebecki (+252 +43.2%)
Rebecki was brutalized by Carlos Ferreira last time out. Rebecki’s odds for that bout opened as -275, but the public poured on him, turning him into a big -405 favorite. Some folks who bet big on him there might be betting against him out of spite here, pushing his +100 opening line to +250. Most of the betting is probably coming from folks who saw how badly beat up he got, though, and they might be expecting Orolbai to do that again.
Orolbai was just -120 when this line opened, but that quickly dropped to -300 range. We saw something similar in his last fight, which he won, versus Elves Brener. He opened at -170 there and closed at -245.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Abus Magomedov (-143 -17.7%) vs. Brunno Ferreira (+118 +15.9%)
We’ve got a flip here!
Brunno Ferreira, last seen KOing Dustin Stoltzfus with a spinning elbow, opened as the -120 favorite. And Abus Magomedov — who walked through Warrley Alves last time out — opened at +100.
The public and Vegas don’t agree on who is favored here, though, and public money has pushed Magomedov into minus odds.
There’s been a little bit of course correction over the week, though. At one point Ferreira’s line went up as high as +134, before coming down to where we’re at now. Ferreira’s line is currently trending down, so (if you like him) this might be the best time to get in on him.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Kennedy Nzechukwu (-758 -0.1%) vs. Chris Barnett (+515 +6.5)
We had a bit of an odd occurrence on the line for this short notice fight. Nzechukwu opened at -750 but on October 21 public betting forced his line all the way up to -576. It quickly came back down again, though. Someone out there must really like Barnett in this fight, a sentiment not shared by the majority of folks.
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Farid Basharat (-690 -18.8%) vs. Victor Hugo (+483 +44.3%)
Basharat opened as a big favorite in this fight and the public are fine with that. They are continuing to bet him, making him the biggest favorite now on the card. This has resulted in Hugo’s +225 opening line skyrocketing to +483. We had some weirdness at the weigh-ins for this fight, with Hugo coming in very heavy. We could see some volatility in the betting lines as a result of that.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Rinat Fakhretdinov (-229 +2%) vs. Carlos Leal (+186 -4.9%)
There’s been very little movement here, probably because there’s not been a lot of action on this fight. Fakhretdinov was supposed to fight Nursulton Ruziboev in this slot and Leal is coming in on about five days’ notice.
Photo by Michelle Farsi/Getty Images
Ibo Aslan (+101 +22.6%) vs. Raffael Cerqueira (-122 -37.4%)
Another flipped line here. Aslan, a one fight UFC veteran, opened as -180, while promotional newcomer (Cerquiera) opened at +150.
The public must have found Cerqueira’s highlight reel, though. The 34-year-old Brazilian is a KO artist with some epic finishes on the Brazilian scene. That might have been what tipped off some betters and motivated them to grab him at plus money.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Ismail Naurdiev (-175 -42.5%) vs. Bruno Silva (+143 +31%)
Narudiev opened as the +124 underdog, but he is the third fighter on the card to see his line flipped from plus to minus odds. His odds have moved dramatically, making him the -175 favorite. Naurdiev is very well known in the United Arab Emirates, having fought mostly in Brave CF. There might be a lot of local money coming on him because of that.
Silva opened at -148 before his line steadily shifting to +143.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
UFC 308 Biggest Line Movements
TLDR: Here are the biggest line movements at UFC 308:
- Victor Hugo: From +225 underdog to +487 underdog (+44.6 percent)
- Mateusz Rebecki: From +100 underdog to +265 underdog (+43.2 percent)
- Ismail Naurdiev: From +124 underdog to -178 favorite (+32.8 percent)
- Myktybek Orolbai: From -120 favorite to -321 favorite (-39.9 percent)
- Raffael Cerquiera: From +150 underdog to -122 favorite (+24.5 percent)
- Bruno Silva: From -148 favorite to +146 underdog (+37.4 percent)
- Rafael dos Anjos: From +142 underdog to +237 underdog (-28.2 percent)
- Armen Petrosyan: From +205 underdog to +139 underdog (-27.6 percent)
Since I’ve been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.
- Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 1-14.*
- Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 6-3.
- Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 0-3.
- Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 2-3.
- Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have shortened are 1-0.
*The lone winner in this group was Jesus Aguilar who submitted UFC debutante Stewart Nicoll at UFC 305.
UFC 308 Best Underdogs Bets
There are some good underdog opportunities on this card. Three current underdogs opened as favorites (Brunno Fereira, Bruno Silva, Ibo Aslan), so there are probably plenty of you out there who like those guys. Of that trio, I favor Ferreira the most, as I think he has the power to cause Magomedov a ton of trouble.
Petrosyan is a live dog against Magomedov, too. The public agree on that, bringing his underdog line down considerably. Petrosyan has great striking defense. He’s not known for wrestling and grappling, but if he decides to try that against Shara-Bullet he might find a lot of success.
We’ve also got two generational talents, in Max Holloway and Robert Whittaker, at plus odds. You can’t completely count out either of those guys (despite the frightening rep of their opponents at UFC 308), so I expect a lot of people are willing to risk their units on either Blessed or The Reaper come Saturday night.
Enough about me, though, which of these underdogs do you like the most?
Remember that Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 308 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 10:00 a.m. ET, before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 2 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To check out the latest and greatest UFC 308: “Topuria vs. Holloway” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
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