Betting Guide for UFC Vegas 103: Top Odds, Prop Bets, Parlays and Predictions for Kape vs. Almabayev

UFC Vegas 103 is live this weekend (Sat., March 1, 2025), featuring Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev in the main event. Checkout the odds for that fight (and much more) right here!

UFC Vegas 103 goes down this weekend (Sat., March 1, 2025) inside the familiar UFC APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. The ESPN+-streamed main event features Flyweights in the main event with Manel Kape taking on Asu Almabayev. Almabayev is coming in on short notice.

Initially, Kape was booked to fight the top-ranked Brandon Royval. However, Royval had to back out due to injury.

Outside of this intriguing main event, UFC Vegas 103 might be the worst card the promotion has ever put on. The co-main event for this show is Julian Marquez (who is on an 0-3 run) versus Cody Brundage (4-5 in UFC). Marquez was supposed to be fighting recent The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) winner, Ryan Loder.

Rounding out the main card are Nasrat Haqparast vs. Esteban Ribovics, Hyder Amil vs. William Gomis and Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson. Those fights might be pretty entertaining (especially Haqparast vs. Ribovics), but none of those names can be expected to draw much attention or excitement.

UFC Vegas 103’s “Prelims” are currently scheduled to be headlined by Austen Lane. He’s being fed to another heavy handed Contender Series grad in the form of Mario Pinto.

Let’s checkout the money lines on “Kape vs. Almabayev” and all the other bouts on the card ...

UFC Vegas 103 Main Card Money Line Odds

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Manel Kape (-210) vs. Asu Almabayev (+275)

Kape stormed back from a brutal trio of low blows to blitz Bruno Silva on the last UFC card of 2025 (see the finish here — which might have included a revenge groin shot from Kape). That bout helped erase some of the memories of his stinker opposite Muhammad Mokaev in July. Kape and Mokaev sold their fight well, getting into brawls at every opportunity. They then delivered a stale contest with zero intensity and little action. Mokaev won a decision thanks to a smattering of takedowns. Mokaev, who was judged as the instigator in a lot of the pre-fight antics, was promptly bounced from the promotion.

Almabayev, meanwhile, joined UFC in 2023. Since then, he has quietly strung together a four-fight win streak. Most recently, back in Oct. 2024, he beat Matheus Nicolau. He was due to fight Steve Erceg on this card, before he was needed for the main event.

This is our classic “Striker vs. Wrestler” match up.

Kape’s striking looked lights out against Silva (after he became enraged by the multiple fouls he was hit with). Typically, he lands over five significant strikes a minute and has 56 percent accuracy. His strikes landed per minute is second highest in the division, well behind Joshua Van (whose numbers are inflated due to a smaller sample size). His accuracy rate is second in the division, too, just behind CJ Vergara (who has padded his stats against fellow non ranked fighters). Kape is also third in the division for knockdowns landed (60) and fourth for knockdown average per 15 minutes (0.94).

Almabayev is as good at wrestling as Kape is at striking. He has landed a 5.08 takedowns per 15 minutes in his four UFC fights (that’s Merab Dvalishvili territory). He also has a 50% accuracy on his takedowns (second only in the division to Cody Durden’s 55% accuracy). Most of those takedowns have happened against guys low down on the roster, though (like the nine landed against Vergara and six he landed against Jose Johnson).

Against Nicolau, Almabayev went just 1-6 on takedowns. Nicolau does have elite takedown defense, though. In that fight Almabayev found a lot of success on the feet, almost stopping the Brazilian with his striking.

Kape’s takedown defense is a very good 77 percent. And he has experience of facing very good wrestlers. He defended five of eight takedowns against the aforementioned Mokaev. He also forced Nicolau to go 2-9 on takedowns when they met in Kape’s second ever UFC fight.

I think Kape is going to do well at defending Almabayev’s takedowns this Saturday. He’s quick, got great balance and he’s seen great takedowns coming his way plenty of times in the Octagon.

If we see Kape and Almabayev standing for most of this fight, then I think you have to pick Kape to get the win. He has a three inch reach advantage over Almabayev. And you can’t give Almabayev credit for experience against top strikers. A slumping/declining Nicolau is the best fighter he’s ever faced in the Octagon.

The best fighter he fought outside the UFC is Tagir Ulanbekov (who is currently ranked 11th in the division). Ulanbekov TKO’d him in the third round.

Vegas thinks there’s a good chance Kape finishes Almabayev on Saturday. Kape via KO/TKO/DQ is +180. He’s got -120 odds on a -5.5 point spread, too. Under 4.5 rounds is also +124.

Almabayev to win by decision is +250, which is tempting if you think he will be able to do what Mokaev did to Kape. Odds for Almabayev to win by any other method are sky high. He’s +1800 to win via strikes.

I think Kape is the bet here and I’m wavering on whether he gets a decision or a late finish. The moneyline odds aren’t terrible, though, so that’s where I’ll go with this pick.

Best bet: Manel Kape moneyline (-210)

Julian Marquez (-140) vs. Cody Brundage (+120)

It was eight years ago that Marquez shocked Dana White by KOing then-super prospect Phil Hawes, on the first season of Contender Series (see that jaw dropping head kick here).

Since then, things haven’t gone great for “The Cuban Missile Crisis.”

He’s only fought seven times since then due to various injuries. He’s been more active since 2022. However, each of the three fights he’s had since then have ended in TKO losses. He was stopped by Gregory Rodrigues in round one (see it here), finished by Marc-Andre Barriault by standing TKO in round two and, most recently, KO’d by Zach Reese in just 20 seconds (see it here).

Brundage’s last fight ended in a “No Contest” because Abdul Razak Alhassan fouled him with blows to the back of the head (see that here). Prior to that he was a hand picked victim for Bo Nickal, losing to to the he hot prospect by second round submission (see it here).

His most recent UFC win was a slam KO of Zach Reese (see it here).

Brundage may be the lowest volume striker in UFC. He landed just one significant strike against Alhassan (in that 37 second contest), four sig. strikes against Nickal and nine against Reese. In a second round DQ win over Jacob Malkoun, he landed just two sig. strikes. In a unanimous decision win over Sedriques Dumas he landed just three sig. strikes!

The most sig. strikes he’s ever landed in a fight were his 28 against Nick Maximov (in a fight he lost by unanimous decision).

Marquez’s chin might be shot, but Brundage might not throw enough punches to take any advantage of that.

I have a feeling this is going to be a very boring clinch fest with Brundage leading much of that dance. Marquez’s striking has been better than Brundage’s in the past, but lately he’s seen totally ineffective as a fighter — due to a combination of his past injuries and recent head trauma.

The round total is 1.5 with the under at -145. Over 1.5 rounds is +114. I’ll take that, believing that we’re in for a long and dull co-main event.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+114)

Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images

Nasrat Haqparast (+240) vs. Esteban Ribovics (-300)

This is my favorite fight on the card and I think we’re in for a very fun, competitive and violent fight between these two.

Ribovics is coming off an epic brawl with Daniel Zellhuber inside The Sphere. That fight ended in a split decision win for the Argentinian and a Fight of the Night bonus. I scored the fight for Ribovics and was surprised to see it as close as it was on the official scorecards.

Prior to this bout he melted Terrance McKinney with a head kick in under forty seconds (see it here).

Haqparast, meanwhile, is coming off a split decision win, too. He beat Jared Gordon in Riyadh last year. That was a very close fight and I could see an argument for scoring it for Gordon. Prior to that, Haqparast blew through Jamie Mullarkey by first round technical knockout to earn a “Performance of the Night” bonus.

Haqparast is longer than Ribovics, but I don’t think that matters much. Ribovics had an eight-inch reach disadvantage against Zellhuber. He was still able to crash through range and land his hooks inside the pocket. And Haqparast is not a dedicated and disciplined jab-artist.

Both of these men pour on a ton of volume. Ribovics lands 7.23 sig. strikes a minute and Haqparast lands 6.15. Ribovics’ number is one of the highest in the division and Haqparast is good for Top 5.

Ribovics’ accuracy is slightly better, too, landing 48% of his sig. strikes versus Haqparast’s 44 percent. Haqparast’s defense is marginally better, though. He defends 62% of sig. strikes versus Ribovics’ 57 percent.

I’m expecting a “Fight of the Night”-type brawl between these two and I think both are tough enough to withstand that kind of violence and make it to the final bell. I think Ribovics’ wins that fight, but I wouldn’t count out Haqparast entirely.

You can get Haqparast +3.5 for -115. I like that a lot, given how close both these men’s last fights were and my assumption that this is going to be a hard fought battle to a decision.

Because I think this will go the distance, I also like over 2.5 rounds at -215.

If we want to hunt for bigger odds we could go with Ribovics by decision (+100) or Haqparast via decision (+400).

I’m going to stay a little safe, though, and just bet that this one goes to the judges.

Best bet: Fight ends in a decision (-185)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

William Gomis (-195) vs. Hyder Amil (+165)

Gomis took a split decision over Joanderson Brito in his last fight. He won that as a +260 underdog. Brito was relentless in that bout, coming forwards at every opportunity. But Gomis stayed calm and technical and was able to hit him counters. That victory took him to 4-0 in UFC.

Amil is now 2-0 in UFC after he finished Jeong Yeong Lee in around a minute last summer (see his 38 punch finishing combo here). He was a slight underdog in that fight (+155). Amil was actually hurt in the first few seconds of that wild bout, before battering Lee for the finish.

This bout is a little “rinse and repeat” for Gomis, having just dealt with Brito’s pressure. Amil doesn’t bring a takedown threat with him, like Brito did, though.

If Amil is expecting to storm forward with his chin in the air and brawl his way to another quick win, I don’t think he’s going to be very successful. I think Gomis should be able to avoid that big offense and slow down Amil with his jab and front kicks.

If Amil wins this fight, we’re likely going under 2.5 round (+180). If Gomis wins, we’re likely going over (-238).

I’m more confident in Gomis getting a finish than I am Amil winning a decision, so I’ll take the Frenchman straight up here.

Best bet: William Gomis moneyline (-195)

Photo by Al Powers/Zuffa LLC

Danny Barlow (-300) vs. Sam Patterson (+240)

This card could be an opportunity for Barlow to fully introduce himself on the Welterweight scene. His slick kickboxing has gotten him to 9-0 on his career and earned him three wins in the Octagon, thus far.

But, he took a bit of a backward step in his last fight.

His last fight was a split decision over sore loser Nikolay Veretennikov. Barlow came in heavy for that bout. The fight was an awful staring match with Barlow looking anxious and just firing in single shots at a time.

It was a far cry from his technical knockout win over Josh Quinlan (see it here). However, I’m willing to excuse that performance and chalk it up to the weight cut and/or an off night.

Patterson was finished by Yanal Ashmouz in his proper UFC debut (see it here). He then beat Yohan Lainesse via rear-naked choke and Kiefer Crosbie via arm-triangle choke. Lainesse is no longer in the promotion, while Crosbie is one of the worst UFC fighters we’ve seen in a while; therefore. I’ll be very surprised if the promotion trots him out again.

Barlow’s striking should be too much for Patterson to handle. Patterson will want to get Barlow down and test him with submissions. Barlow is yet to be taken down in UFC (though he has only faced three takedown attempts).

The round total for this one is 1.5 rounds. That feels low. I’ve said this a few times recently and been proved wrong, though. Under 1.5 rounds is +100 and over is -130.

Given how Barlow performed last time out, I don’t want to bank on him getting an early finish. I’ll go with the moneyline, instead.

Best bet: Danny Barlow moneyline (-300)

UFC Vegas 103 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Austen Lane (+350) vs. Mario Pinto (-500)

Lane cracked his duck egg in UFC last time out, beating the criminally over-hyped Robelis Despaigne by unanimous decision. That win came after KO losses to Jhonata Diniz (see that here) and Justin Tafa (see it here). Lane is perhaps best known for being fed to Greg Hardy on Contender Series in 2018 (see that 57 second KO loss here).

Lane is only allowed to fight big guys who pack a punch, apparently. UFC have lined him up with the undeafeated (8-0) Pinto, who smashed Lucas Camacho on Contender Series back in Oct. 2024. Prior to that he was the Heavyweight champ over on Levels Fight League. He’s won five of his eight bouts via (technical) knockout, but his record doesn’t include anyone vaguely familiar.

I watched Pinto’s last title defense in Levels Fight League, against a human fire hydrant called Kasim Aras. He won by unanimous decision, failing to put away a 37-year-old who was about a foot shorter than him. I think that performance showed off some interesting potential for Pinto, though.

Some Heavyweight KO artists come off the regional scene and show they only have one gear and plan of attack. Then, when they meet someone with a semblance of footwork or ground game they fall apart. In that Aras fight, Pinto showed he’s patient and can defend a takedown. He has KO power, but that’s not the only thing he has which can win a fight. I think that’s a good sign for his UFC career and this fight with Lane.

The round total for this one is 1.5 rounds, which is pretty common in Lane fights. He managed to cash the over against Despaigne and Diniz, though. If I’m right about Pinto being a patient fighter with KO power then the over is a nice bet.

Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-110)

Photo by Al Powers/Zuffa LLC

Ricardo Ramos (+385) vs. Chepe Mariscal (-575)

Marsical put a beat down on Damon Jackson in his last fight. He did miss weight for that fight, though. Previous to that he upset the flashy former Cage Warriors champ Morgan Charriere, beating him by split decision. His perfect 4-0 UFC record also includes wins over Jack Jenkins and Trevor Peek.

Ramos is coming off a split decision win over Josh Culibao. Ramos won that fight despite being battered with leg kicks to the point he could barely stand in the second round. Culibao let him off the hook in the third, though. Ramos was lucky not to endure a single leg kick in that third and he was able to take Culibao down and steal the fight.

That win came after back-to-back submission losses to Julian Erosa and Charles Jourdain.

Mariscal is the more well rounded fighter and is well deserving of his extremely short odds.

One telling stat is that Ramos has a woeful 36% accuracy on his significant strikes. Mariscal’s accuracy is an above average 56%. Mariscal’s number has been generated in fights with some pretty decent strikers, too.

Marsical is also the better wrestler. So, I think this fight will take place wherever Marsical wants it. I think Marsical can get the finish here, too.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-140)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Douglas Silva de Andrade (+240) vs. John Castaneda (-300)

Silva de Andrade has been with UFC since 2015. His best wins over the past ten years include decisions over Marlon Vera and Renan Barao. He’s had a lot of losses, but some of them have come against Lerone Murphy, Petr Yan, Rob Font, and Said Nurmagomedov.

Most recently, he lost to Miles Johns (and looked OK against him).

Castaneda submitted Johns in his third ever UFC fight (see it here). Since then he’s gone 2-2. During that period he was KO’d by a knee from Daniel Santos. In his last fight he lost a decision to Daniel Marcos.

John Castaneda isn’t great at any one thing. Neither is Douglas Silva de Andrade, though.

Silva de Andrade turns 40 in June. That’s just too old to compete (unless you are Jared Cannonier).

Best bet: John Castaneda moneyline (-300)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Andrea Lee (+175) vs. JJ Aldrich (-210)

Lee rode a gimmick and some OK results in Invicta and LFA into a UFC contract back in 2018. She’s gone 5-8 since then and has lost her last five fights. Those were all decisions and some of them were against especially tough ladies (Miranda Maverick, Maycee Barber).

Aldrich is 9-6 in UFC and is coming off a decision loss to Veronica Hardy. She had won her last two before that, though, with a decision over Montana De La Rosa (who Lee lost to in her last fight) and a TKO over Na Liang.

Lee’s taken a bit of a step down in competition here, but I still can’t pick her in this fight. Lee has consistently looked like she either doesn’t know what she’s doing in the Octagon or she doesn’t want to be there. Aldrich at least shows some focus and commitment to her cause.

We all know this is going to a decision, though.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-500)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Lucas Almeida (+180) vs. Danny Silva (-220)

Almeida he took a decision over Timmy Cuamba last time out. He lit up Cuamba with counters and combos and looked as good as we’ve ever seen him.

Silva is coming off a split decision win over Josh Culibao, in a fight where he came in heavy. That was his first fight since coming off Contender Series with a decision win over Angel Pacheco.

Silva is a volume striker who, so far, has shown some decent wrestling ability.

I like the underdog here, though. I think Silva might play right into Almeida’s counter boxing style (just like Cuamba did).

Best bet: Lucas Almeida moneyline (+180)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Luana Carolina (-150) vs. Montana De La Rosa (+125)

Carolina has won her last three fights. Most recently she beat Lucie Pudilova by decision. That was almost exclusively a Muay Thai match and she used her range and clinch game to good effect.

De La Rosa beat Andrea Lee by split decision in June. De La Rosa held her own in the striking with Lee and then sealed the win with her wrestling late in the fight.

De La Rosa should probably make the take down the focal point of her attack on Saturday night. If she gets a couple of them she might be able to hold Carolina down for a decent amount of time.

This fight is really too close to call, though. I slightly favor Carolina and believe she will be able to score lots of points on the feet (assuming De La Rosa tries to strike with her).

Ultimately, though, this fight has decision written all over it.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-475)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Charles Johnson (-120) vs. Ramazan Temirov (Evens)

Temirov made his presence known in his UFC debut in October. He chased CJ Vergara around the ring before putting him down with punches to earn himself a Performance of the Night bonus. The Uzbek had done similar things in Rizin before moving over to the Octagon.

Johnson beat Sumudaerji by unanimous decision in his last fight. He came out very wild and aggressive for that fight and his corner had to tell him to calm down.

Temirov is as wild as they come. He flies at opponents and wings massive punches (he also has a good spinning back kick).

He’s much smaller than Johnson, so he might have some issues closing distance with him. But, I’m a believer in Temirov’s power. I think he’ll be able to catch up to Johnson and catch him on the chin.

Best bet: Ramazan Temirov moneyline (Evens)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

UFC Vegas 103 Long Shots

Here’s a couple of things that look interesting (on Betonline) for this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 103 card ...

Cody Brundage to win by Submission (+600)

The belief that Julian Marquez can be knocked over with a feather is permeating all the betting lines for this fight. It means that Brundage has +240 odds to win by KO/TKO/DQ. Brundage is not a devastating striker. I think there’s as much chance he gets Marquez in a guillotine or takes him down for an arm triangle than there is him starching him with a right hook. Because of that, these high odds on a submission are very tempting.

Manel Kape to win by in Round 4 (+1200)

I think the main event probably goes to a decision. I believe that mostly because Kape can sometimes coast and give away rounds under wrestling pressure. However, Kape is still a very good striker and he has some of the best power in the division. Almabayev is still very untested in UFC. I think there’s a chance Kape comes on in the later rounds and gets a finish over Almabayev. And these odds for him winning in the championship round are very tasty.

Esteban Ribovics vs. Nasrat Haqparast - Fight to End in the Last 10 Seconds of Any Rounds (+6500)

I think these two are going to go to war. And when that happens there’s always a chance someone goes down on a buzzer beating punch or counter. Thanks to Max Holloway we have more guys willing to go rock ‘em sock ‘em in the last ten seconds, too. These two feel like a combination who would be into that, especially if their blood is up due to an exciting back and forth round.

Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.

Remember that Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 103 card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 7 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 103: “Kape vs. Almabayev” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

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