The top betting options, combinations, and predictions for UFC Kansas City's Garry vs. Prates fight.

UFC Kansas City is live this weekend (Sat., April 26, 2025), featuring Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates in the main event. Checkout the odds for that top Welterweight clash (and much more) right here!

UFC Kansas City goes down this weekend (Sat., April 26, 2025) inside T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri. The ESPN+-streamed main event sees Ian Machado Garry stepping in on short notice (again) to take on the streaking Carlos Prates. With both men ranked high in the Welterweight division, an impressive win could clear a path to the winner of Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena (though, don’t tell that to Muhammad).

UFC Kansas City’s co-main event features the impressive Zhang Mingyang taking on former 205-pound title challenger, Anthony Smith. The main card also has Giga Chikadze vs. David Onama, Michel Pereira vs. Abus Magomedov, Randy Brown vs. Nicolas Dalby and Ikram Aliskerov vs. Andre Muniz.

UFC Kansas City’s “Prelims” have some fun tilts, too. Those include Da’Mon Blackshear vs. Alatengheili and Jaqueline Amorim vs. Polyana Viana.

As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:

UFC Kansas City Main Card Money Line Odds

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Ian Machado Garry (-125) vs. Carlos Prates (+105)

Garry lost his “O” in his last fight, a unanimous decision defeat to Shavkat Rakhmonov. As far as narratives go, though, Garry walked away from that fight with a Pyrrhic victory. Prior to that fight many believed Garry was a lot of talk and not much action and the overwhelming thought was that the terrifying Rakhmonov would turn him into mincemeat. Rakhmonov didn’t do that, though. Instead, the pair put on a close and gritty fight that showed off a lot of toughness, technique and strategy for both men.

This was the first loss on Garry’s 16-fight career. Prior to the loss, he took decisions over Michael Page, Geoff Neal and Neil Magny.

Prates, meanwhile, has steamrolled his way through UFC’s roster to earn this main event slot (which was supposed to be opposite Geoff Neal). He’s coming off devastating finishes of the aforementioned Magny (see it here), Li Jingliang (see it here) and Charles Radtke (see it here).

He’s undefeated (5-0) in UFC with all finishes (including his Contender Series appearance).

“Half a Pack a Day” Prates’ striking has been as brutal as it’s been technical and selective over his UFC tenure. He doesn’t spam strikes and get lucky. He throws like he has a laser-guiding system. His precision and timing allowed him to devastate Magny and Li in ways we’re not used to seeing.

This is a big step up for the Brazilian, though. He’s meeting someone who is in his prime and who has a very expansive MMA tool kit.

Garry hasn’t hit the same highlights as Prates, but he’s been excellent in piecing together a UFC career worthy of a title challenger.

Garry is the slight favorite in this match-up. If he fights how he has done recently, I think he might have some trouble with Prates.

Since entering the Top 10, Garry has adopted a more passive style of fighting. He has been inviting opponents onto him and looking to react with counters and takedowns. I don’t think Prates is the right person to do that against.

Prates has had a few opponents back off of him now (since they are rightfully concerned about his striking power). When that happens, though, Prates simply walks them down, measures a shot and then lands it. Radkte felt Prates’ power early and decided to back track. Prates simply followed, stretched out a hand to make contact and then blitzed forward with that crushing knee.

I can see something like that happening here. Garry might let himself be walked to the fence in hopes he can make Prates miss. That would be a big gamble given that Prates lands 57 percent of his significant strikes.

If Garry fights more aggressively, though, I think this is a very winnable fight for him. If he lands leg kicks early and hides some takedowns behind his jab, he should be able to disrupt Prates’ striking enough that he can earn a decision win and maybe even get a submission on the ground.

To do that, Garry will need to show some guts and prove he’s not afraid of being caught with a counter punch. I think we’ll just have to wait and see what happens in that respect. I’d love to see him be more aggressive, personally. I think that would present a far more interesting fight to watch and be a great test for Prates.

As the slight underdog, Prates is getting points on this fight. You can get him at +5.5 for -165. That feels like a no brainer in such a close fight where your fighter has ungodly stopping power.

The round total for this one is set at 3.5 rounds. The over is -125 and the under -105. As you can see, Vegas is very conflicted over whether this goes to a decision or not. I’m with them. This is really hard to call. I feel like this fight might go over, since Garry is very skilled at long distance fighting.

When it comes to likely prop bets, we’re looking at +165 for Prates to win via KO/TKO/DQ and +225 for Garry to win by +350.

For me, though, I can’t pass up the point spread with Prates. That being said, I did lose with Diego Lopes +5.5 last time out (his combined scorecard with Alex Volkanovski was 139-146) at similar odds.

Best bet: Carlos Prates +5.5 (-165)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Anthony Smith (+375) vs. Zhang Mingyang (-550)

Smith is being fed to the lions at UFC Kansas City.

Even though Mingyang lost a bunch in his early career (including a knockout to record fraudster Askar Mozharov), he’s now undefeated since 2020 and has finished 11 straight fights.

All but two of those was because of strikes.

Last time out, Zhang destroyed Ozzy Diaz (someone whose chin was praised in his last fight against Djorden Santos). Prior to that, he beat up Brendson Ribeiro (see it here) and Tuco Tokkos. Neither Ribeiro nor Tokkos are serious UFC talents. However, despite the low level of opponents he’s faced (and obliterated), I think we’ve seen enough to believe that Zhang can do a lot of damage in a division like Light Heavyweight.

Zhang’s promise is magnified given the vibes around Smith right now.

He wept on his way to the cage at UFC 310. That was totally understandable, given the sudden and recent death of his coach. He didn’t seem in any shape to fight that night (at all), gifting Dominick Reyes a technical knockout win (see it here).

Before that, he lost a very boring decision to Roman Dolidze, a former training partner. That fight, which was put together on short notice, looked like a sparring match.

Those losses have helped us forget his big upset win over Vitor Petrino in Brazil. Petrino, who came into that fight with the kind of hype Zhang is getting now, stormed at Smith with his head down and was promptly submitted (see it here).

I’m sure some betters think that might happen again. But, I’m not riding with them. I think Zhang is going to charge forward, but he’s going to be swinging for the fences when he does.

Zhang lands a ridiculous 8.57 significant strikes per-minute with a decent 55 percent accuracy. Smith’s defense is somewhat porous at 45 percent.

Zhang hasn’t had enough UFC fights to be considered in the official stat leader rankings. His numbers right now would have him top in significant strikes per-minute (current leader Carlos Ulberg has 6.82). He’d also be top for significant strike differential and top five for significant striking accuracy.

So yeah, despite his record having more tomato cans than my local No Frills, I’m all in on Zhang to win this one — violently.

Vegas agrees.

Zhang by KO/TKO/DQ is just -280. Zhang to win by KO/TKO/DQ in round 1 is just -105. The round total is set at 1.5 rounds with the under at -188. Zhang to win by KO/TKO/DQ in round two is +450. That’s tempting because of the odds, but I’m really struggling to see Smith survive that first round if Zhang starts as quickly as he has done in each of his last few fights.

For my best bet, I’ll just take the under.

Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-188)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Giga Chikadze (+150) vs. David Onama (-180)

Chikadze returned from a long layoff to lose to Arnold Allen last July. He’s had another near year long-off before this fight. If you’ve been reading these pieces for awhile, you know I don’t like that.

This year we’ve seen lots of high-profile fighters lose to tough opposition after around a year on the sidelines (Josh Emmett, Marvin Vettori, Jan Blachowicz, etc.). That already has me weary of picking Chikadze here.

Onama, on the other hand, has been active and winning in all the time Chikadze has been out (something he shares with the fighters who beat Emmett, Vettori and Blachowicz).

He took on a short-notice replacement last time out, beating Roberto Romero by unanimous decision. Onama got off to a slow start in that fight, but was able to win all three rounds against a tougher than advertised opponent. Before that, he beat Jonathan Pearce by decision (in a fight he came in heavy for).

I think we can expect a kickboxing fight from these two. Neither has shown much interest in getting a takedown and both have good takedown defense (excellent in the case of Chikadze).

Onama is the busier striker, landing 5.6 significant strikes per-minute and eating 5.07. Chikadze lands 3.92 and absorbs 3.5. As you can see, both men don’t have much of a significant strike differential. I think this tells us that we’re going to see them hit each other a roughly equal amount of times.

Chikadze’s defense is better, though. He defends 61 percent of the significant strikes slung at him. That’s above average. Onama’s defense is more mid, at 52 percent. This could mean that Chikadze will be able to keep himself safe from the biggest shots Onama throws at him.

If Chikadze had fought and won four months ago, I’d comfortably pick him here — favoring his striking approach over Onama’s and recognizing his impressive strength of schedule. The lay-off has me worried, though.

One thing I do feel more confident in is the chances this fight goes to a decision. Onama couldn’t finish Romero despite landing 121 significant strikes and neither he nor Chikadze have ever been stopped with strikes. Because of that, and the fact I can see either guy winning a decision, I’ll take the over.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-188)

Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Michel Pereira (-125) vs. Abus Magomedov (+105)

Back in Oct. 2024, Pereira took one of the more one-sided and prolonged beatings we’ve seen in UFC recently. It was ugly. Anthony Hernandez brutalized him for almost the entire fight before a technical knockout was mercifully called in the fifth (see it here). This fight was one of the strongest candidates, ever, for why corners should throw in the towel during MMA fights.

I interviewed Spencer Fisher once and he remarked on a war he had with Josh Neer as “taking years off his life.” I fear that’s what Hernandez did to Pereira that night. My concern carries over for how he might perform in this fight just six months later. I know I don’t like lay-offs, but this was definitely a situation where a fighter should chill for a year and regroup.

Fortunately for Pereira, he’s not meeting a killer striker in his return.

On the contrary, Magomedov lands just 2.65 significant strikes per-minute and his accuracy is a dreadful 44 percent. Magomedov also absorbs more than he lands (3.35). That’s another metric I look for (and fade).

Magomedov was losing the striking battle with Brunno Ferreira in his last fight. He was knocked down, but was able to come back and win with a late submission.

All things being even, I think Pereira’s striking would be too much for Magomedov. But, I just don’t have high hopes for how Pereira will look after the shellacking he took last time out.

With another fight too close to call, I’m again looking at the round totals. Vegas inexplicably set the round total at 1.5 rounds. I don’t think there’s any way this fight finishes that quickly. And the public must agree — the odds on the over are pretty short at -195.

For a little better odds, I’m going to go with Fight to Start Round 3 at -125. I’m doing this because I think Pereira won’t be his explosive self and that he and Magomedov might have a slow and plodding fight that might go to a decision.

Best bet: Fight to Start Round 3 (-125)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Randy Brown (-240) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+195)

Dalby dropped a close decision to Rinat Fakhretdinov in Saudi Arabia last year. The judging on that fight was a little questionable, with more media scores going to Dalby than Fakhretdinov. A few months later, Fakhretdinov won a decision over Carlos Leal in United Arab Emirates in what is one of the biggest robberies I’ve ever seen on the scorecard (David Lethby scored for Fakhretdinov in both those fights).

Anyways, that “loss” snapped a four-fight win streak for Dalby. Before that fight, he stopped Gabriel Bonfim with knees and punches (see it here) as a +455 underdog.

Brown, meanwhile, just lost a split decision to Bryan Battle in a bit of a weird fight. Battle seemed a little compromised during the bout, either physically or mentally, but was still able to pull out the win. Before that, Brown beat Elizeu Zaleski by unanimous decision.

I think this fight is closer than Vegas thinks and Dalby deserves a little more respect. Both Dalby and Brown are past their fighting primes, but both are competitive Welterweights in the ranks just below the Top 15.

I like Brown’s reach and motor in this fight. He’s also six years younger than the 40-year-old Dalby. I don’t think he stops Dalby, though (no one has, ever). Because of that, I’ll take yet another over bet as my best bet.

Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-250)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Ikram Aliskerov (-725) vs. Andre Muniz (+450)

This fight was supposed to happen at UFC’s last trip to Saudi Arabia, but Andre Muniz couldn’t get his passport sorted out in time. Before that, this fight was scheduled for an APEX card, but had to be rescheduled after Muniz withdrew.

Aliskerov’s last fight was in Saudi Arabia. He came in as a late replacement for Khamzat Chimaev and then was blown away by Robert Whittaker inside of two minutes (see it here). That was Aliskerov’s second professional loss. The first was to Chimaev back in their BRAVE CF days.

Muniz, on the flip side, defeated “The Iron Turtle” Jun Yong Park via split decision in his last fight. That was back in Dec. 2023.

Muniz is going to want to get this fight to the ground. Historically, he’s been pretty good at that. He’s 50 percent on his takedowns and lands over four of them every 15 minutes.

Aliskerovs’ takedown defense is untested in UFC ... literally. No one has ever attempted to take him down.

I don’t have much of a read on Aliskerov, but I don’t think he’s as good as we are being led to think he is. Before the Whittaker fight, he was sold as one of the most dangerous and brightest prospects in the division. UFC had to do that to justify him getting the main event slot in its Saudi Arabia debut.

He’s a long high-volume striker. But, he’s another guy who takes more hits than he lands. He dishes out 7.03 significant strikes per-minute and absorbs 7.27. His defense is a terrible 36 percent. Those numbers are a little warped by the disparity in his Whittaker fight, though, where he landed just five shots and took 14.

Even so, his successful striking displays have come against some of the more hittable fighters UFC could offer (Warlley Alves, Phil Hawes, Mario Sousa).

I’m protesting Aliskerov’s hype and his odds here by picking Muniz (despite the long lay-off!). Muniz is a solid all-around fighter and, if he gets his takedowns, this thing is a wrap.

Best bet: Andre Muniz moneyline (+410)

UFC Kansas City ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Matt Schnell (-265) vs. Jimmy Flick (+215)

Oh Matt Schnell ... what is you doing?

When you get out of this stuff, you gotta stay out. Back in Sept. 2024, Schnell tapped out to a ninja choke from Cody Durden (see it here) and then laid his gloves down in the cage. That was his fourth loss in his last five and all have been stoppages. The only loss in that stretch was his wild “Fight of the Year” candidate with Sumudaerji. That was only a “Fight of the Year” candidate because Schnell had the hell beat out of him in the first half of the fight.

Flick, for what it’s worth, also had a fake retirement. His came after beating Cody Durden, though, with a flying triangle (see it here). That was in 2020. He returned in 2023 and lost back-to-back fights Charles Johnson and Alessandro Costa, both due to ground-and-pound. He lost a decision to Nate Maness in his last fight.

This is a horrible fight.

On their best days, Schnell is a more talented fighter than Flick. I don’t know what kind of day either of these guys will be having on Saturday, though. Both these guys are submission artists and neither have much left in the tank. I think that translates to one of them getting a submission and one of them, at some point, saying “F— it, I’m done for the night”

Best bet: Fight ends in Submission (+140)

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Evan Elder (-195) vs. Gauge Young (+165)

Elder was supposed to fight Ahmad Hassanzada at this event. However, Hassanzada was pulled off the card after being accused of a ghastly crime (full details here). Before that, Elder had a fight with MarQuel Mederos cancelled for an unknown reason.

Elder’s last appearance was back in July when he submitted Darrius Flowers.

Young, on the other hand, flubbed his Contender Series audition, losing to Quillan Salkilld by decision. He then got a win on the regional scene and has now been called up as the late replacement for Hassanzada.

I’m not going to overthink this. I’ll just take Elder, who is in fighting shape and has lots of reps (and some wins) against UFC-caliber opposition.

Best bet: Evan Elder moneyline (-195)

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Chris Gutierrez (-140) vs. John Castaneda (+120)

Both these guys must desperate to get inside the Octagon.

Gutierrez beat Quang Le back in Aug. 2024. Le was a late replacement for Javid Basharat. Gutierrez then had a fight with Jean Matsumoto fall through in March. Castaneda actually came in as the late replacement for that bout, but then Castaneda got sick on fight day.

Before his pulling out of the Gutierrez fight, Castaneda saw his fight with Douglas Silva de Andrade fall through on weigh-in day after the veteran Brazilian was not medically cleared.

I think Gutierrez is going to have success with his leg kicking game against Castaneda, who is not a great mover. Castaneda might try and get this to the mat, but Gutierrez has a very impressive 71 percent takedown defense. That’s even more impressive considering how often he’s kicking people in the leg.

Best bet: Chris Gutierrez moneyline (-140)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Da’Mon Blackshear (-500) vs. Alatengheili (+350)

Blackshear has hit a groove lately. He’s looked excellent in dominating and submitting Cody Stamman and Cody Gibson with his smothering and creative grappling game.

Alatengheili is coming off a decision win over Kleydson Rodrigues. That followed a decision loss to Chris Gutierrez.

Blackshear is one of the biggest favorites on this card because he’s one of the biggest size bullies in the promotion. He’s five inches taller than Alatengheili and has an eight-inch reach advantage with his arms. His leg reach advantage is probably even greater, which matters when it comes to passing guard.

Blackshear is going to be all over Alatengheili like a rash and is probably going to win with something funky. I’ll say ... mounted gogoplata.

Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+120)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Malcolm Wellmaker (-120) vs. Cameron Saaiman (+100)

Saaiman is another member of the one-year lay-off club. He’s been on a break since back-to-back losses to Payton Talbott and Christian Rodriguez. Those were the first losses of his career. The Talbott loss was a technical knockout (see it here).

Wellmaker, meanwhile, improved to 8-0 after scoring a first round knockout on Contender Series. He’s got some pretty nasty boxing.

Wellmaker is bigger and longer and has been more active than Saaiman.

Best bet: Malcolm Wellmaker moneyline (-120)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Jaqueline Amorim (-950) vs. Polyana Viana (+550)

Amorim put her elite Brazilian jiu-jitsu on display in her submission win over Vanessa Demopoulos (see it here). Demopoulos said that Amorim was grabbing her gloves in that move, but ... this is MMA. If you aren’t cheating, you aren’t trying. And given how lax referees are with every single foul in the book, you need to at least expect dirty tricks if not go for them yourself.

That was Amorim’s second armbar in a row. She also caught Cory McKenna with one (see it here).

Amorim is a nice example of a legit black belt in the women’s ranks who can get their opponent on the ground and terrorize them with her best asset.

Viana last competed back in Jan. 2024, losing to Gillian Robertson due to ground-and-pound (see it here). Prior to that, she was submitted by Iasmin Lucindo.

I don’t think Viana’s defensive grappling is up to snuff here and Amorim should make good on those rather ridiculous odds.

Best bet: Jaqueline Amorim moneyline (-950)

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Timmy Cuamba (+100) vs. Roberto Romero (-125)

Cuamba needs a win to save his UFC skin on Saturday. He was counter punched into a decision loss by Lucas Almeida last time out. Prior to that, he dropped a split decision to Bolaji Oki. Those losses spoiled his undefeated record, amassed on the B-level promotions of the U.S. regional scene.

And I’ve already mentioned Romero. He came in on short-notice and put in a good performance in a losing effort opposite the aforementioned Onama. He almost had Onama finished in the first round, too. Romero did that at UFC 309 in Madison Square Garden. I think that showed that Romero isn’t someone who shys away from a big occasion.

Romero faded badly in that Onama fight. Now he has a full camp and a much more beatable opponent. I think we could see a good performance in a winning effort from him this Saturday.

Best bet: Roberto Romero moneyline (-125)

Photo by Al Powers/Zuffa LLC

Chelsea Chandler (+240) vs. Joselyne Edwards (-300)

Chandler’s appearance at UFC Vegas 95 might have been the worst performance we saw in the Octagon in 2024. She came in five pounds heavy and did nothing against Yana Santos. That was Chandler’s second weigh-in miss in a row. She came in heavy for her fight with Josiane Nunes, too, which she won by decision.

Edwards, though, is no stranger weigh-in misses. She was three pounds heavy in her win over Tamires Vidal. That’s her third time coming in heavy in UFC.

We’ll see if this one even makes to the cage on Saturday night.

Best bet: Joselyne Edwards moneyline (-300)

Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC

UFC Kansas City Long Shots!

Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action.

Ian Machado Garry vs. Carlos Prates to end in Submission (+475)

I bet you wish you’d gotten Jean Silva by submission against Bryce Mitchell, no? The Fighting Nerds have become famous for devastating striking, but they have some jits, too! Maybe Prates rocks Garry and finishes him with something on the ground?

Or, maybe it’s Garry who gets the tap? Prates has three submission losses on his record (50 percent of his pro losses). And Garry trains at Chute Boxe with Charles Oliveira. He must have picked up a thing or two on the ground.

Two-bet parlay: Da’Mon Blackshear to beat Alatengheili and Andre Muniz to beat Ikram Aliskerov (+515)

Let’s call this one Grappler’s Delight. I think it’s pretty obvious that Da’Mon Blackshear will be able to drag down and bully the smaller Alatengheili. The second leg of this parlay is far more speculative. I belive Ikram Aliskerov is a paper tiger, though, and the non-flashy, takedown, top control game of Andre Muniz might expose him.

Anthony Smith vs. Zhang Mingyang - Fight to End in the 1st 60 Seconds of Round 1 (+500)

I think Anthony Smith is going out on his shield on Saturday night and that it might happen quickly. If we pick away at Zhang Mingyang’s record we might find some hope for Smith. But with Smith declining and Zhang rising, I think Zhang is going to announce himself as a player at 205 lbs this weekend and it will be at the expense of poor “Lionheart.”

Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Kansas City fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” undercard bouts at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 9 p.m. ET.

To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Kansas City news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here.

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