Tracking UFC 314 betting line movements for the Volkanovski vs. Lopes fight by following the money

UFC 314 is live this weekend (Sat., Apr. 12, 2025). Here’s a look at all the betting line movements for Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes and much more.

UFC 314 takes place this weekend (Sat., April 12, 2025) inside the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event features a clash for the vacant UFC Featherweight title with Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes.

UFC 314’s co-main event is Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett. ‘Nice fellow’ Pimblett will be hoping to launch himself into the title picture at Lightweight off the back of ‘Muscle Milk Mike’.

The main card also has Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbull, Bryce Mitchell vs. Jean Silva and Nikita Krylov vs. Dominick Reyes.

UFC 314’s “Prelims” are headlined by Dan Ige vs. Sean Woodson. There you’ll also find Darren Elkins vs. Julian Erosa and Chase Hooper vs. Jim Miller.

I’ve been watching the lines (see them here) for all the fights on UFC 314 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below, you’ll find all the line movement info since the odds were released (per Best Fight Odds).

UFC 314 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Alexander Volkanovski (-140 -3.2%) vs. Diego Lopes (+115 +2.3%)

We have not seen a lot of movement in our main event betting line. Vegas listed Alexander Volkanovski as a slight favorite to repeat as UFC Featherweight champion against Diego Lopes. And the public seem fine with that.

Volkanovski opened as -130 for this fight. In his last fight, against Ilia Topuria, he opened at -175, but the public bet him down to -120. Volkanovski was, of course, brutally stopped by Topuria after that. Because of that last result I’m a little surprised in Vegas’ line here and that it hasn’t moved in the opposite direction.

The public were right about Volkanovski in his most recent fight with Islam Makhachev, though. He opened as the +215 underdog and was bet up to +220 before he lost by KO. They were also right about him in the last fight with Max Holloway, taking him from a -146 favorite to a -175 favorite.

Lopes opened at +110 for this fight. The public were right on Lopes in his last two fights. They bet him from -150 to -188 in his win over Brian Ortega. And they bet him from -250 to -275 in his win over Dan Ige.

If they’re right about him this time, though, the title is going back to Australia.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Michael Chandler (+126 +23%) vs. Paddy Pimblett (-154 -30.1%)

Paddy Pimblett’s line has shrunk dramatically this week. He’s gone from a +114 slight underdog to a -154 favorite. This isn’t the first time we’ve seen something like this, though.

Against King Green he opened at +160 and closed at -110. That’s a massive 52.6% shift. The public were right on that, though, with Pimblett easily submitting Green in the first. In his fight with Jared Gordon Pimblett opened at +125 and was bet down all the way to -242. That’s an even bigger shift, of 62.8%. Pimblett got his hand raised after that fight (delighting the betters), but many believe that was the result of poor judging.

In one of Pimblett’s early UFC fights, against Kazula Vargas, he had a line shrink from -225 to -600, too.

I think Pimblett’s line movements are a result of his popularity with an audience that is especially keen on betting. I grew up in the UK and we don’t have any taboos around sports betting. You can walk into a betting shop on your local high street and wager on all kinds of things. So I think this line might be because of lots of folks in Liverpool and the UK walking into Ladbrokes and putting down a tenner on the Baddy.

This is yet another fight where Michael Chandler closes as the underdog. He’s only been a favorite once in his UFC career, against the shell of Tony Ferguson. He wasn’t even the favorite when odds were released, most recently, for his fictitious fight with Conor McGregor.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Jean Silva (-233 +12.3%) vs. Bryce Mitchell (+184 -35.6%)

Bryce Mitchell is another fighter who has seen a big shift in his betting line. He opened as the +285 favorite, but a lot of people are betting on him to get the job done against Jean Silva (his own personal demon). I’m a little surprised that more people aren’t turned off siding with Mitchell, thanks to how unlikable he’s made himself in the past six months.

Jean Silva opened at a very short -400 for this fight. In his last bout, against Melsik Bagdasaryan, he opened at -380 and was bet down to -470. The public liked him in his fights with Drew Dober and Charles Jourdain, too.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Yair Rodriguez (-202 -9.5%) vs. Patricio Pitbull (+163 +14.4%)

Patricio Pitbull’s line has crept up somewhat since opening at +125. I’m a little surprised it hasn’t risen more than that, given his age and size disadvantages against Yair Rodriguez.

The public might be a little gun shy with Rodriguez, though. He opened at -162 and they bet him down into the -170s before he lost to Brian Ortega. The public also shortened his underdog odds before he was finished by Alexander Volkanovski.

It might be a case that the idea of Yair Rodriguez is a lot more appealing than the reality of Yair Rodriguez. That being said, I personally think he’s a really poor match-up for Pitbull. I am a little worried about how much he might be thinking about Lopes before this fight, though.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Nikita Krylov (-189 -0.4%) vs. Dominick Reyes (+152 +4.8%)

There’s not a lot of movement to talk about in this fight. The public seemingly have plenty of fond memories of Nikita Krylov. They are happy for him to be a favorite against Dominick Reyes despite the two year lay-off. Interestingly, on April 7, Krylov’s line dipped down to -199 before rising back to close to its opening number.

UFC 314 Late ‘Prelims’ Line Movement

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Dan Ige (+142 +33.3%) vs. Sean Woodson (-175 -40%)

Sean Woodson’s line has flipped from +120 to -175. So the public are putting down lots of bets on him, despite his lack of name recognition. This is the first time Woodson has opened with plus odds since he fought Kyle Bochniak back in 2019.

The public were wrong on Woodson most recently. He opened at -185 and closed at -155 before KOing Fernando Padilla.

Dan Ige has been faded by the public a lot recently. He went from +142 to +274 against Lerone Murphy and from +175 to +250 against Diego Lopes.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Yan Xiaonan (+122 -8.1%) vs. Virna Jandiroba (-151 +7.8%)

There’s been a little change in these betting lines. Vegas had this as bigger mismatch, initially, with Yan Xiaonan at +140 and Virna Jandiroba at -188. The public thinks this fight is much closer than that and I agree.

Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images

Jim Miller (+606 +43.3%) vs. Chase Hooper (-880 -9.9%)

Poor Jim Miller. It seems the public have lost faith in our Octagon Iron Man. His line has skyrocketed since opening at +300. A lot of this is due to just how good Chase Hooper has looked in his last two bouts, though.

Hooper had similar odds in his last fight, where he submitted Clay Guida as the -1000 favorite.

Miller’s line rose a lot in his last fight, too. Against Damon Jackson he opened at -140 but that rose to +205 (a 40.1% increase). Miller would then beat, and retire, Jackson. Has he got another one of those upsets in him?

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Darren Elkins (+266 +18%)vs. Julian Erosa (-351 -6.2%)

Darren Elkins is another veteran being faded by the public. He opened at +200 and has risen by almost 20 percent. I’m personally surprised by that. I think he’s a very live dog against Julian Erosa, who is just four years younger and is someone who is known to take a lot of punishment during his fights.

UFC 314 Early ‘Prelims’ Line Movement

Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Sedriques Dumas (+162 +12.2%) vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (-199 -4.6%)

Sedriques Dumas’ line has increased a little from his opening odds at +130. Michal Oleksiejczuk is getting a little love form the public here. That’s not very familiar for him, though. In his last fight he was faded, turning him from a +220 to a +265 underdog against Shara Magomedov. Before that, against Kevin Holland, he rose from +165 to +260. He lost both of those.

Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images

Sumudaerji (-174 +4.7%) vs. Mitch Raposo (+142 -3.3%)

This line is more or less where it started at. However, there was an interesting blip on April 5. On that day Sumadaerji’s line sunk to -217 and Mitch Raposo’s jumped to +172. Both lines soon started sliding to their starting points, though. That could speak to a short burst of betting activity on Sumudaerji that day.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Tresean Gore (+288 +16.2%) vs. Marco Tulio (-376 -2.8%)

Tresean Gore opened at +225 and that’s risen a little. Marco Tulio’s line has been pretty stable, though.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Nora Cornolle (-185 -2%) vs. Hailey Cowan (+151 +8.4%)

There’s not much change in our opening fight. The public seem very content as Nora Cornolle being the favorite against the less experienced Hailey Cowan.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

UFC 314 Biggest Line Movements

TLDR: Here are the biggest line movements at UFC 314:

• Sean Woodson: From +120 underdog to -175 favorite (-40 percent) (B)
• Jim Miller: From +300 underdog to +606 underdog (+43.3 percent) (A)
• Bryce Mitchell: From +285 underdog to +181 underdog (-37 percent) (C)
• Dan Ige: From -163 favorite to +142 underdog (+33.3 percent) (D)
• Paddy Pimblett: From +114 underdog to -148 favorite (-30.1 percent) (B)

Since I’ve been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.

A: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 5-24.

B: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 9-8.

C: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 1-5.

D: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 4-4.

E: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have shortened are 2-2.

F: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, though they remain at minus odds are 0-0.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

UFC 314 Best Underdogs Bets

There’s a lot of value on this card and a lot of underdogs I like the look of. The most appealing to me is Darren Elkins. He thrives in the underdog role and, despite his age, he’s still tough as nails and capable of putting a beating on someone. Julian Erosa is not a young pup who is going to run through Elkins. He’s on the wrong side of 35, too. Erosa has also been stopped a bunch in his UFC career. I think Elkins’ power, and relentlessness, could put Erosa away.

I also like Sedrique Dumas’ chances of getting the biggest win of his career. Michal Oleksiejczuk has submission defense issues and Dumas has a good guillotine.

I also like Yan Xiaonan and Dominick Reyes.

Enough about me, though, which of these underdogs do you like the most?

Remember that Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 314 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6:00 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

To check out the latest and greatest UFC 314: “Volkanovski vs. Lopes” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.

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