UFC returns to Riyadh this weekend (Sat., Feb. 1 2025), featuring the return of former Middleweight champion, Israel Adesanya, taking on rising challenger, Nassourdine Imavov.
UFC Saudi Arabia takes place this weekend (Sat., Feb., 1, 2025) inside anb Arena (formerly The Venue) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This marks the promotion’s second trip to Saudi Arabia and its first at anb Arena.
The ESPN+-streamed event will feature Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov. Both Middleweights will hope that a win opens up a route to the winner of Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland.
The co-main event is a banger, on paper, with Shara Magomedov vs. Michael Page due to meet, also at Middleweight. On the main card there’s also a Heavyweight clash between Sergei Pavlovich vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik and a Bantamweight showdown between Said Nurmagomedov and Vinicius Oliveira. Rounding out the main card is Fares Ziam vs. Mike Davis. We were supposed to have Ikram Aliskerov (who headlined the first ever UFC Saudi Arabia card), but his opponent, Andre Muniz, couldn’t get into the country (full details here).
UFC Saudi Arabia’s “Prelims” are headlined by Muhammad Naimov vs. Kaan Ofli.
Let’s checkout the money lines on “Adesanya vs. Imavov” and all the other bouts on the card ...
UFC Saudi Arabia Main Card Money Line Odds
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Israel Adesanya (-175) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (+145)
Adesanya’s last fight was his unsuccessful attempt to claim back UFC’s 185-pound strap at UFC 305. That night the belt came into, and out of, the building around the waist of Dricus du Plessis. Adesanya wasn’t blown away by the South African. It was a close fight and he was able to hurt DDP throughout. Eventually, though, du Plessis’ sloppy, but super effective, offense found a way through, leaving Adesanya open for a takedown and submission (see the finish of that fight here).
That spirited display has Adesanya as the favorite in this fight against Imavov, who is on a so-so, four-fight undefeated streak. The streak started after he lost a decision to Sean Strickland in 2023. Since then, Imavov has had a “No Contest” with Chris Curtis (accidental clash of heads), a majority decision over Roman Dolidze, an early stoppage over Jared Cannonier (see it here) and, finally, an actually impressive decision win over Brendan Allen.
I thought the bookies might have gone with Imavov as the favorite in this match-up and was ready to state a case as Adesanya being a live dog. However, it seems “Sin City” agrees with me that Adesanya looked good against the champ and Imavov’s run of wins are just okay.
This is the first time Adesanya has competed in a non-title fight since he decisioned Anderson Silva in 2019. He’s about as battle-tested as you can be at Middleweight. Imavov, on the other end, has a very meh list of names on his record. He faced, and lost to, Strickland. The only other fighter he’s faced with title fight experience is Cannonier (who was winning on the scorecards before that early finish). Other names on Imavov’s resume include Joaquin Buckley (before Buckley went down to Welterweight), Edmen Shahbazyan and Ian Heinisch. Shahbazyan and Heinisch are the only non asterisk finishes of Imavov’s UFC career.
I just think Imavov will struggle against someone as talented on the feet as Adesanya. And I don’t believe Imavov has anything in his game that can stop this from being a kickboxing match.
On the feet, Imavov has the advantage when it comes to stats, landing marginally more significant strikes per-minute with 55 percent accuracy (compared to Adesanya’s 48 percent accuracy). There’s a lot of difference between landing shots on Chris Curtis and landing them on Alex Pereira, though.
I think there’s a chance Adesanya could get a finish in this fight. We’re not that far removed from him KO’ing Pereira in his revenge fight (see that here). And he might have been on his way to stopping du Plessis before he was caught himself.
I don’t think Imavov has the kind of one-shot power that ruined Adesanya’s night against Du Plessis and I don’t think he’s capable of landing a takedown to get himself out of trouble.
Adesanya at -155 is not terrible. The point spread at -5.5 for +120 is tempting. The round total on this is 4.5 with the under at +150. I like the under because I think there is a chance Adesanya could score a finish. I think it would be a late finish, though, the result of a slow accumulation of shots (like he was putting on du Plessis).
Ultimately, I’m most confident in Adesanya just getting it done. So, I’ll go straight up moneyline here, despite the lower odds.
Best bet: Israel Adesanya moneyline (-155)
Shara Magomedov (-190) vs. Michael Page (+160)
Magomedov has made strides in convincing us he’s as good as advertised. His double spinning back-fist KO over Arman Petrosyan sealed the deal in that respect (see that highlight here). That win made him 4-0 in UFC and earned him his third straight post-fight bonus.
It’s debatable as to whether Page was ever as good as advertised. He’s got some great (and brutal) highlights to his name (like this skull cracker against Evangelista Santos here). But he never managed one of those over a household name. He’s come to UFC late in his career and it’s unlikely he makes much of an imprint in the Octagon. He’s 1-1 in UFC, beating Kevin Holland and losing to Ian Machado Garry in rather forgettable decisions.
If we’re going to see the best of MVP, Shara Bullet might be the man to make it happen. This, on paper, should be a fun striking battle with Page attacking and Magomedov trying to counter.
Page has a big six inch reach advantage over Magomedov, which might make the countering game tough... for punches anyway. Magomedov has an array of kicks that could still cause Page a lot of problems (including his calf kick).
The round total for this is set at 2.5. I really like the over, albeit with it’s short -220 odds. All of Magomedov’s fights have gone over. The closest he’s come to under that total is his win over Petrosyan which came at 4:52 in round two.
It’s been all decisions for Page in UFC. Fight to go the distance is available at -185. I’ll take the over, though, hoping there could be something special at the tail end of this one.
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-220)
Sergei Pavlovich (-320) vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik (+250)
Pavlovich went into his last fight as a big favorite, only to be pecked to death by Alexander Volkov’s jab. This fight followed his quick KO loss to Tom Aspinall (see that here). He’s returning here as a big favorite, with Vegas thinking he’s possible of emulating what he did in his previous fights (such as this big KO over Curtis Blaydes here).
Rozenstruik got off to a hot start in UFC, but after a 20 second KO loss to Francis Ngannou (see it here) in 2020, he’s gone 5-4, losing every time he faces someone ranked above him. He beat Tai Tuivasa with a split decision last time out and before that he benefited from Shamil Gaziev gassing out and quitting on the stool.
Pavlovich will have a ton of size over Rozenstruik, including a six inch reach advantage. He had four inches over Volkov, but still couldn’t close the distance or get out of the way of his jab. I think that’s due to the fact Pavlovich doesn’t maximize his reach with straight punches, he’s a swinger. So is Rozenstruik, though.
Unless Rozenstruik has developed a good jab, these two are going to be lobbing looping haymakers at each other. In this scenario, the reach advantage should help Pavlovich get Rozenstruik before he gets got.
Both these guys have identical significant striking defense (51 percent) and are pretty similar with significant strike accuracy. Pavlovich hits, and absorbs, far more volume. But I think this fight will be determined by power.
And Pavlovich has more of it than Rozenstruik.
Pavlovich averages 3.2 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Rozenstruik averages 0.89. Rozenstruik’s last knockout was a first round win over Chris Daukaus (see it here) in 2022. Rozenstruik couldn’t put away a pretty spent Tuivasa in his last fight (Pavlovich finished him in less than a minute when they fought).
I think Pavlovich is going to get back into the win the column here, at the expense of the 36-year-old “Bigi Boy.”
There’s not many worthwhile options for you if you’re like me and are expecting a quick and violent win for Pavlovich. Under 1.5 rounds is -210. Pavlovich by KO is -225. Pavlovich via knockout in round one is about as good as you’re going to get with -115. Betonline has Pavlovich to win and under 0.5 rounds at +250.
That’s a little too risky, for me, though.
Best bet: Sergei Pavlovich to win by KO/TKO/DQ in round one (-115)
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Said Nurmagomedov (-185) vs. Vinicius Oliveira (+155)
The other Nurmagomedov (who is not connected to the Abdulmanap clan) scored a “Performance of the Night” bonus last time out with his first round submission of Muin Gafurov (see that here). That looks pretty good now, considering how Gafurov dismantled super prospect Rinya Nakamura two weekends ago. That saw him bounce back from a decision loss to Jonathan Martinez.
Prior to that, he also choked out Saidyokub Kakhramanov and Cody Stamann.
Oliveira, meanwhile, has been exciting during his brief tenure in UFC. The Brazilian striker won his Contender Series showcase by first round knockout. Then he blew away Bernardo Sopaj (who looked good against Ricky Turcios two weekends ago) with a flying knee (see it here). That earned him $100,000 in bonus money. Next up, he beat Ricky Simon via unanimous decision. He didn’t get the highlight reel knockout, but he did impress with solid takedown defense (defended nine of 11 takedowns) and slick striking (+44 significant strike differential) versus a decent name at Bantamweight.
Oliveira is a mature prospect at 29, so he will hit his ceiling relatively soon. But, even so, I think he’s a decent underdog bet here against Nurmagomedov.
Don’t let the last name fool you, Nurmagomedov is a striker first and foremost. And his submissions come often from scrambles and standing positions. He’s not very likely to try and take down Oliveira (just one takedown per 15 mins) and if he does try, I don’t think he’ll be that successful (just 16 percent accuracy on his UFC career.
In a striking match-up, I’m sold on Oliveira.
Best bet: Vinicius Oliveira moneyline (+155)
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Fares Ziam (+120) vs. Mike Davis (-140)
Ziam was one of the stars of the show at UFC Paris in September. His striking looked vicious, and highly technical, when he dismantled Matt Frevola and finished him off with a brutal knee (see it here).
That win extended Ziam’s win streak to four fights, with the other three all being decisions. His last loss was a submission to Terrance McKinney (see it here).
Davis has been out for almost one year because of a torn biceps muscle (ouch!). That ruined his booking with Drew Dober in July. His last fight was a submission win over Natan Levy.
There’s recency bias at play here, but Ziam looked so good in his last fight that I like him as the slight underdog here against a man who has been out of action for so long.
Davis is the more well rounded fighter, who will look to mix up his striking with takedowns. But, Ziam has a decent 67 percent takedown defense. And if he fights like he did against Frevola, it could be a short night for Davis.
Best bet: Fares Ziam moneyline (+120)
UFC Saudi Arabia ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Muhammad Naimov (-290) vs. Kaan Ofli (+235)
Ofli got sparked by Mairon Santos to lose the latest The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) Finale (don’t ask my what season it was, who the coaches were or anything else about it). I saw that fight, though. Ofli was out-struck by Santos in that fight and was put down with a wicked counter punch after he got frustrated and bombed forwards with his hands down.
Naimov is coming off a loss to “Jungle Boy” Felipe Lima. Lima was a very short notice opponent. Naimov had his moments early in that fight, but was caught out by Lima’s grappling and submitted late (see it here).
Naimov has shown a more solid all around game than Ofli has at this point (due to how little we’ve seen of Ofli in general). Naimov looked better in his loss to Lima (taking a round in my opinion) than Ofli did against Santos.
Best bet: Muhammad Naimov moneyline (-290)
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Shamil Gaziev (-380) vs. Thomas Petersen (+280)
Gaziev won a stinker against Don’Tale Mayes during UFC’s trip to Abu Dhabi in August. Gaziev got takedowns in that fight and laid on Mayes for long periods.
Thomas Petersen looked alright against Mohammad Usman in his last fight. He peppered Usman with combos and, at times, looked maybe a little too loose in there.
Obviously, this fight is about whether or not Gaziev will get takedowns. Petersen is yet to be taken down in UFC, but he’s only seen two takedown attempts (one from Usman and one from Chandler Cole on Contender Series).
I’m loathe to pick against Gaziev because of his experience advantage and how little we know about Petersen’s wrestling. If Petersen attacks Gaziev like he did Usman, he’s going to get taken down an awful lot.
The round total for this one is a little strange. It’s set at 1.5 rounds and I think that’s really low. I think this is probably going all the way to a decision.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-160)
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Terrance McKinney (-425) vs. Damir Hadzovic (+315)
It’s rare you see two guys with .500 records fight in UFC.
McKinney’s was wiped out by an Esteban Ribovics headkick in his last fight (see it here). That dropped his professional record to 14-7 (5-4 in UFC). That was McKinney’s third (technical) knockout loss in UFC.
The 38-year-old Hadzovic last fought in 2022, losing a unanimous decision to Marc Diakiese. That dropped his record to 15-7 (4-5 in UFC). Prior to that Hadzovic’s most memorable moment was being submitted by Renato Moicano in an eerie and foreboding empty arena in Brazil, which was followed by Moicano yelling at him for not giving him a more competitive fight.
It’s hard to trust either of these guys in this fight. Hadzovic has been out of action for so long it’s hard to know what he’ll look like in this return. And McKinney is just so up and down.
I think a finish is on the cards, here. McKinney has never gone to a judges decision. So, I’ll bet assuming that this trend will continue. The round total is 1.5. I feel like our finish is going to come later than that, with both men perhaps wanting to feel out the process a little (Hadzovic due to his lay-off and McKinney due to his quick knockout loss last time out).
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+190)
Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images
Jasmine Jasudavicius (-225) vs. Mayra Bueno Silva (+185)
Bueno Silva was upset about her doctor’s stoppage because of a cut against Macey Chiasson last June. But, I think it was warranted (see it here ... if you dare). It was a competitive fight and it was a shame for it to end like that, but the cut was nasty and came after Chiasson landed a perfect elbow strike on the ground.
Jasudavicius is on a nice run with a submission over Ariane Lipski da Silva (see it here) and a decision over Fatima Kline. Those wins have earned her the biggest name in her career to date.
She’s the favorite here, but I think these odds should be far closer than they are. Yes, Bueno Silva has lost two in a row, including a dreadful fight with Raquel Pennington for UFC’s vacant Bantamweight belt. And yes, Bueno Silva is coming down in weight for this, but she entered UFC as a Flyweight.
I think Bueno Silva’s striking might cause Jasudavicius some problems. On the other hand, Jasudavicius’ takedowns might cause Bueno Silva some problems (not her submissions, though, Bueno Silva’s got great BJJ). I think this might end up as the classic women’s MMA split decision. If you can get that prop somewhere, go for it. At this time of writing I’ve just got the moneyline, so I’ll take a punt on the underdog.
Best bet: Mayra Bueno Silva moneyline (+185)
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Bogdan Grad (-115) vs. Lucas Alexander (-105)
Grad graduated from Contender Series on his second attempt thanks to a split decision win. His first shot on that show ended in a first round knockout loss to Tom Nolan.
Alexander, meanwhile, was TKO’d by Jeka Saragih in his last fight, back in 2023. He came in heavy for that fight.
This is a UFC fight in name only.
Grad has some nutty highlight reel knockouts. That’s probably enough to warrant picking him.
Best bet: Bogdan Grad moneyline (-115)
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Hamdy Abdelwahab (-110) vs. Jamal Pogues (-110)
We’re opening the show with a Heavyweights ... yay!
The 3-0 32 year-old Hamdy Abdelwahab draws the far more experienced Jamal Pogues here and it’s a pick ‘em!
Abdelwahab is a Greco Roman convert who signed for UFC in 2022. He beat Don’Tale Mayes in his debut via split decision. However, that was overturned to a “No Contest” after Abdelwahab failed a drug test for an anabolic steroid. He was given a two-year USADA suspension for that. While he was out he failed another doping test, this time by UFC’s in-house agency. That extended his ban by six months.
The 29 year-old Pogues is 2-1 in UFC with wins over Thomas Petersen and Josh Parisian.
This is going to be a slop fest. There’s no way I’m picking Abdelwahab given his track record.
Best bet: Jamal Pogues moneyline (-110)
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
UFC Saudi Arabia Long Shots
Here’s a couple of things that look interesting (on Betonline) for this Saturday’s UFC Riyadh card ...
Three bet parlay: Vinicius Oliveira, Fares Ziam, Mayra Bueno Silva (+1433)
I like each of these underdogs. And I like them all for their striking prowess. Oliveira is a live wire and he might just announce himself as a serious player against Nurmagomedov. Ziam was lights out at UFC Paris and his opponent is coming off a major injury lay-off. And Mayra Bueno Silva is a recent title challenger whose Brazilian jiu-jitsu should keep her safe from the 38-year-old Jasudavicius’ most deadly weapons.
Israel Adesanya to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 4 (+1800)
Reports of Adesanya’s decline were greatly exaggerated in the lead-up to the du Plessis fight. I don’t think we are enough far removed from that showing to count him out against this younger challenger. Adesanya’s experience, striking and defensive wrestling should cancel out Nassourdine Imavov’s boxing and limited offensive wrestling. I think we’re most likely heading to a decision, but I think there’s a chance Adesanya’s offense builds up and has Imavov feeling pretty damaged in the championship rounds.
Shara Magomedov vs. Michael Page: Fight to be End in the Last 10 seconds of Any Round - Yes (+6500)
These two are showmen. I think there’s a good chance either of them will hear that 10-second warning and think, “Okay, time to do something wild.” If they do, they might make another epic highlight (or end up on the wrong end of one).
Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.
Remember that Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Saudi Arabia fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 9 a.m. ET, before the main card start time at 12 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Saudi Arabia: “Adesanya vs. Imavov” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
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