UFC 311 is live this weekend (Sat., Jan. 18, 2025), featuring a pay-per-view (PPV) main event of Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan for the Lightweight title. Checkout the odds for that title fight (and much more) right here!
UFC 311 goes down this weekend (Sat., Jan. 18, 2025) at the sparkling new Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event will see Islam Makhachev risk his Lightweight title in a fight with Arman Tsarukyan, someone who looked pretty good against him when they first fought in 2019.
There’s a title fight in UFC 311’s co-main event, too!
That spot is reserved for Bantamweight roost-ruler, Merab Dvalishvili, who is an underdog in his first defense. His challenger is Umar Nurmagomedov, a “spoiled little baby” according to Dvalishvili.
UFC 311’s stacked PPV main card also has Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill, Beneil Dariush vs. Renato Moicano and Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder.
There’s some fun stuff on the “Prelims,” too, with Grant Dawson vs. Diego Ferreira, Jailton Almeida vs. Serghei Spivac and Payton Talbott vs. Raoni Barcelos (maybe UFC will let Talbott stick around after his fight this time).
As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:
UFC 311 Main Card Money Line Odds
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Islam Makhachev (-425) vs. Arman Tsarukyan (+315)
Makhachev and Tsarukyan are meeting again, five years after their first bout on UFC on ESPN+ 7. Makhachev won that three round bout by decision. The fight is well remembered as one of the most trying encounters of Makhachev’s careers.
However, I think that statement is being a little over-hyped to sell this current match-up. Tsarukyan did ask lots of questions of Makhachev, more than most. However, Makhachev had all the answers he needed.
Tsarukyan threw a lot of kicks at Makhachev, which were hard and barely telegraphed. But Makhachev blocked them all and even landed a nice one of his own. Since that fight Makhachev’s striking has improved tremendously (as has Tsarukyan’s). But in his last fight Makhachev threw down with Dustin Poirier and did great on the feet on route to his late submission win (see that here). That being said, Tsarukyan is still a very dangerous striker, just ask Beneil Dariush (see his first round knockout of Dariush here).
The other questions Tsarukyan asked of Makhachev were regarding wrestling. Tsarukyan surprised many of us by shooting on Makhachev and even scoring a flash takedown (the first takedown Makhacvhev had given up in his UFC career). Tsarukyan also showed an amazing ability to get up from Makhachev’s takedowns. However, Makhachev dealt with these questions, too, stuffing 11 of 12 takedown attempts and not getting discouraged or distracted by Tsarukyan’s sweeps and submission attempts.
Don’t be mistaken, Tsarukyan gave Makhachev a great fight, but he was second best across all dimensions of that contest. And he slowed down a lot in the third round. To me, that doesn’t bode well for this five round main event. Tsarukyan has only gone five rounds once before. That resulted in his only other pro loss, a robbery of a decision opposite Mateusz Gamrot. In that fight all three judges gave Gamrot the fourth and fifth rounds.
Because of these factors I can see why Tsarukyan is a pretty big underdog.
I think Makhachev will win this fight, surging past Tsarukyan in the later rounds for either a lopsided decision or a late finish.
I am intrigued by the point spead here, which is set at -5.5 for Makhachev. You can get him minus the spread for -140. If you like Tsarukyan plus the points, he’s at +100.
I think Makhachev probably beats the spread. I think there’s a chance Tsarukyan comes out hot and takes the first round, but I’m not certain of that and I don’t think he will be able to take more than one round off Makhachev. I also think there’s a chance Makhachev gets the finish (you can get +600 for KO and +330 for submission).
Makhachev by decision is -120. I like the spread though, since it covers me if he gets that finish.
Best bet: Islam Makhachev -5.5 (-140)
Photo by Candice Ward/Getty Images
Merab Dvalishvili (+260) vs. Umar Nurmagomedov (-340)
Dvalishvili styled on Sean O’Malley in The Sphere last year, taking him down at-will and staying miles away from any striking offense O’Malley could muster. Merab didn’t punish or damage O’Malley, physically. But, his relentless success with the wrestling demoralized O’Malley and completely drained his energy.
Nurmagomedov, meanwhile, earned his title shot with a win over Cory Sandhagen in Abu Dhabi. That was another smothering performance for Diet Khabib. Nurmagomedov is now undefeated at 18-0 and, despite just one win against a Top 15-ranked opponent, he’s a big favorite versus the newly crowned champion.
I can’t remember the last time a champion was the underdog right after a dominant win for the belt. I find this line quite surprising, since I consider it a bit of a pick’em myself.
Obviously, both Dvalishvili and Nurmagomedov have the same gameplan, to take down an opponent. However, they both go about it in different ways.
Dvalishvili’s approach is the death by a thousand cuts style of wrestling (6.09 takedowns per 15 mins at 36 percent accuracy). He wants to take you down all the time and doesn’t care if you get back up, that just means he can take you down again.
Nurmagomedov is more selective and effective with his wrestling (3.98 takedowns on 50 percent accuracy). He wants to take you down and hold you down for long periods of control.
Our big question mark is how well each of them will do at stopping the other person’s takedown. Dvalishvili has a stellar 80 percent takedown defense. Nurmagomedov’s is even better — he’s never been taken down in UFC.
Dvalishvili has been more tested by fellow wrestlers, though. He stopped six of seven takedowns from Henry Cejudo. In his early career, he faced Ricky Simon and stopped five of seven takedowns from him.
The best wrestler Nurmagomedov has fought is Sergey Morozov in his UFC debut. He took down Morozov five times (on 11 attempts) and then submitted him in the second round without allowing a single takedown attempt.
It feels pretty obvious that we are going to see five rounds of wrestling scrambles and that it will go to a decision. Fight to go the distance is -280. And Over 4.5 rounds is -315. Not a lot of value to be had there.
Instead of banking on this going the distance, I’m banking on this being close and Dvalishvili being unnecessarily disrespected by the oddsmakers and betting public (he was an underdog against O’Malley, too, remember?).
The point spread is +5.5 to Dvalishvili and that’s where I’m going with my bet. If he wins a decision, loses a close one or finishes Nurmagomedov then I win. Of those possibilities I think a razor-close decision is the most likely outcome. This is going to be a hard fight to judge and I think we’ll see some differing opinions.
Best bet: Merab Dvalishvili +5.5 (-115)
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Jiri Prochazka (-105) vs. Jamahal Hill (-115)
We’re in for fireworks in this fight. Both these guys are going to be going for the kill. Jiri Prochazka is very much a ‘kill or be killed’ kind of fighter. Jamahal Hill is far more cautious and that’s why I like him in this pick ‘em.
Both men are coming off KO losses to Alex Perieira. Hill was slept and posterized at UFC 300 (see it here). Prochazka was melted at UFC 303 (see it here). He was also stopped by Pereira, albeit not as concussively, at UFC 295 (see it here).
The big critique on Prochazka is how low he holds his hands and how high he holds his head. He’s begging to be hit. At first it seemed like this was a method to lull opponents into range. But now it feels more like something he just can’t help doing.
I think Hill, who is more technical with his boxing, and protective of his chin, is going to be able to hurt Prochzka and put him away in this fight.
The oddsmakers are expecting a quick bout, too. The round total is set at 1.5. You can get the over at -166 and the under at +130. I’m tempted by the under here, but not as much as I am by getting +175 for Hill via KO.
Hill lands 7.18 significant strikes per minute. That’s second in the division, behind Carlos Ulberg. Hill (who absorbs just 3.51 sig. strikes) leads the division in sig. strike differential and is top ten in knockdown percentage.
Prochazka lands a decent 5.38 sig. strikes a minute. But that’s less than the sig. strikes he absorbs per minute (5.59). That’s not a good sign.
Both men have about the same accuracy on their strikes (55%). If these numbers bare out, both men will be landing half their big shots, but Hill will be landing more of them. That’s a recipe for a KO, in my opinion.
Best bet: Jamahal Hill by KO/TKO/DQ (+175)
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Beneil Dariush (+155) vs. Renato Moicano (-185)
Renato Moicano is on a four fight winning streak. His most recent win was a demolition of Benoit Saint-Denis on enemy territory. In lighting BSD up on the feet and taking him out in the second round, Moicano looked perhaps the best we’ve ever seen him.
Beneil Dariush is having a much tougher time of things lately. He’s coming off back-to-back TKO losses to Arman Tsarukyan and Charles Oliveira (see the Tsarukyan finish here). Those are incredibly tough opponents, but he was so out classed in those bouts that you wonder whether Dariush still belongs at this level of competition. The damage he’s taken in back-to-back fights is also concerning.
Given their most recent matches it certainly feels like Moicano will be able to tag Dariush on the feet and force him to wilt as the fight goes on.
Grappling has traditionally been where Dariush is most threatening in a fight. However, I’m not sure that will be much of a factor against Moicano, who is a good grappler himself and has great takedown defense (over 70%).
Dariush’s last two losses were inside the first round. Moicano’s last two wins (including his weird comeback TKO over Jalin Turner — see it here) happened inside two rounds. The round total for this fight is 2.5. And the odds are -105 on either side of that.
I’m really down on Dariush’s chances of hanging with another highly ranked Lightweight, so I’m liking Moicano to get the finish in either the first or the second.
Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-105)
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Kevin Holland (-105) vs. Reinier de Ridder (-120)
Reinier de Ridder got a win in his UFC debut last year, beating Gerald Meerschaert in a wild and messy fight. After getting rocked a few times, and threatened with submissions, he managed to turn momentum back in the third and get Meerschaert with an arm triangle choke (see it here).
Kevin Holland fought Roman Dolidze at UFC 307. He suffered a rib injury there, which went down as a first round TKO. The injury happened during a scramble on the ground. That loss came after a technical submission win over Michal Oleksiejczuk earlier in the year (see that here).
This is a pick ‘em and I’m a little surprised by that. Holland’s striking should, in my opinion, make him a decent favorite in this bout. De Ridder’s striking has never progressed beyond basic in an MMA context. And with Holland having a three inch reach advantage and good power, I think De Ridder might struggle to keep up with him.
De Ridder’s submission game (and Holland’s poor takedown defense) are likely what’s buoying his odds and making this so close, as far as Vegas is concerned. However, if he fights Holland like he fought Meerschaert, De Ridder will be there to be hit.
He’s only been stopped twice in the past (both times by Anatoly Malykhin, whom recently lost to Reug Reug). Holland is probably the best striker he’s ever faced, from a techincal standpoint. I’m just not sold on De Ridder being a top ranked guy in this promotion and I think Holland will show us that.
Best bet: Kevin Holland moneyline (-105)
UFC 311 Late ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Payton Talbott (-1500) vs. Raoni Barcelos (+750)
Payton Talbott didn’t take long to show us why he deserved to be a -1600 favorite against Yanis Ghemmouri. He knocked the Frenchman down on with his first punch and then finished him on the ground (see it here). Now he has Raoni Barcelos and odds of just -1500 this time.
He’s 26 and three fights deep in UFC (not including his Contender Series appearance). Shouldn’t we be putting him up against someone in the top 15 now?
The 37-year-old Barcelos is 7-4 in UFC. He is coming off a submission win over Christian Quinonez last February. Prior to that he lost to Kyler Phillips (that’s an opponent I’d love to see for Talbott) and Umar Nurmagomedov (by KO).
Don’t over think this. Talbott’s going to get another quick win.
Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (+135)
Photo by Al Powers/Zuffa LLC
Jailton Almeida (-475) vs. Serghei Spivac (+340)
Jailton Almeida cruised to a first round submission over Alexandr Romanov in his last fight (see it here). That saw him bounce back from his TKO loss to Curtis Blaydes (see that here). Against Blaydes, Almeida was winning the fight early on, but then got in a bad position and was punished dearly for it. That was his first loss as a pro.
Serghei Spivac got a quick submission in his last fight, too. He scored a first round armbar on Marcin Tybura in August (see it here). Like Almeida, Spivac got that win after being TKO’d in his last fight. Spivac’s loss was to Ciryl Gane.
So we have rare birds, heavyweights who do their best work on the ground, taking each other on. Sounds like a recipe for a boring kickboxing match.
Almeida is the better grappler and will likely be most confident in coming out on top in a ground battle. If Spivac has some awareness, he knows that, too. And he might just respond by trying to out box the Brazilian. If the fight is held just on the feet I like Spivac’s chances. However, Almeida should be able to get the takedown and get some pretty good sub attempts from top position.
Spivac’s takedown defense is a good 70%. But Almeida scores 6.85 takedowns every 15 minutes at a 60% accuracy clip. Some of those are going to get through Spivac’s defense. I think we could see some fun heavyweight grappling scrambles as a result of that.
I like the chances of this going to a decision, since I think Spivac might be able to fend off the submissions more so than the takedowns. The total rounds being set at 1.5 seems very low to me.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-115)
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Zachary Reese (+185) vs. Azamat Bekoev (-225)
Zachary Reese was KO’d by a Cody Brundage slam and punches to start his post Contender Series career (see it here). However, he managed to generate some hype with a 20 second KO over Julian Marquez in his next fight (see it here). He was then matched with Jose Medina in August.
He was a huge -800 favorite against Medina. He threw everything he had at him but was unable to get the stoppage.
He was supposed to fight Sedriques Dumas at UFC 311, but Demuas withdrew this week and has been replaced by Azamat Bekoev.
Bekoev vacates his LFA Middleweight title to take the ultra short notice opportunity.
Bekoev is a Sambo master of sport who could/should have been in the Octagon a lot sooner than now. His pressure wreslting and grappling will likely be too much for the still quite inexperienced Reese to handle.
Best bet: Azamat Bekoev moneyline (-225)
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Bogdan Guskov (-310) vs. Billy Elekana (+250)
Bogdan Guskov, the Uzbek Anthony Smith, announced himself on the scene with a TKO win over Ryan Spann in his last fight (see it here). That came after a first round TKO of Zac Pauga (see that here). Both those fights came after he was submitted in the first round by Volkan Oezdemir in his UFC debut.
Guskov, who last fought in April, was due to fight Johnny Walker at UFC 311. Thankfully for Walker, who had been KO’d in his last two fights, he withdrew and has now been replaced by PFL veteran Billy Elekana.
Elekana is just eight fights into his MMA career. He’s gotten the shout here most likely because he’s around (he lives and trains in Vegas). Guskov should be far too much, too soon for him.
Best bet: Bogdan Guskov moneyline (-310).
UFC 311 Early ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Grant Dawson (-290) vs. Diego Ferreira (+235)
This is a fun fight.
Grant Dawson has looked formidable in his wins over Joe Solecki and Rafa Garcia, which have helped obscure the memory of him being laid out in 30 seconds by King Green (see it here) for the first and only loss of his career.
Diego Ferreira was sensational in his last fight, dismantling Mateusz Rebecki (despite being a +380 underdog). His striking looked vicious in that bout and he came on late to batter Rebecki and score a late TKO.
Prior to that Ferreira KO’d Michael Johnson (see that here).
Ferreira is the big underdog here and I think he’ll struggle against Dawson. This fight takes place on his 40th birthday and I think Dawson is just too tough an opponent to become another victim of the Brazilian’s late career renaissance.
Ferreira’s takedown defense is OK at 60%, but it has to be higher than that to prevent Dawson controlling the fight. Dawson’s accuracy isn’t great (just 38%) but when he gets one he turns it into long periods of control time. He may not be gifted in beautifully disguised takedowns, but he is gifted in being able to hold people down and deliver brutal ground and pound against them.
Rebecki was able to take Ferreira down a handful of times (and drop him in a the first round). I think Dawson will get him down, too, but then he’ll hold him down for three minutes at a time.
Ferreira is tough to finish, so he will always have a chance of changing the dynamic of the fight on the feet. But at 40, I’m not that confident he will be able to do that in the later rounds, especially given how exhauisting Dawson will make things.
Best bet: Grant Dawson moneyline (-290)
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Karol Rosa (-220) vs. Ailin Perez (+180)
Ailin Perez twerked her way to a four fight winning streak with an arm triangle win over Daria Zhelezniakova last time out (see it here). That followed her unanimous decision wins over Joselyne Edwards, Lucie Pudilova and Ashlee Evans-Smith.
Karol Rosa has been less consistent. She’s 3-3 in her last six and is coming off a win over Pannie Kianzad. That followed a Fight of the Night losing effort opposite Irene Aldana. Rosa has gone to a decision in each of her ten UFC contests.
This is a ‘classic striker vs. wrestler match-up’. Rosa has incredibly high output on the feet, landing 6.49 significant strikes per minute (at a 56% accuracy clip, too). Perez is as active with her wrestling as Rosa is with her striking.
Perez gets 5.36 takedowns per 15 minutes and has a 51% takedown accuracy.
The big question is over where this fight will take place. If Rosa keeps it standing, she wins. If Perez can take her down three or four times and hold her down for a few minutes each time, she wins.
The best wrestler Rosa has fought is the 2022 version of Sara McMann. She lost that fight, giving up four takedowns (on six attempts) and over 10 minutes of control time. I don’t think Perez is quite on the level of McMann (a McMann with one foot out the door, too). I think she will get Rosa down, but I don’t think she will be taking her down on repeat and holding her down for the majority of a round.
Rosa’s defense is good enough to prevent that. And I think her striking is going to cause Perez some problems. The most significant strikes Perez has ever absorbed in a fight was 27, in her decision win against Edwards. Rosa will land 27 sig. strikes in the first minute of the fight. We don’t know how Perez will react when she gets hit past that.
In Rosa’s last fight she landed 117 sig. strikes. Before that, she landed 204. All that offense is likely to wear Perez down and, as we’ve seen with plenty of wrestlers, once their senses get dulled and the wind comes out of their sails, those takedowns get pretty easy to avoid.
Best bet: Karol Rosa moneyline (-220)
Photo by Hans Gutknecht/MediaNews Group/Los Angeles Daily News via Getty Images
Rinya Nakamura (-575) vs. Muin Gafurov (+385)
Things haven’t really panned out for Muin Gafurov in UFC. He was signed on short notice to fight John Castaneda, and lost by decision, in 2023. He was then submitted by Said Nurmagomedov in 2023 (see it here). Last year he got his first win in the Octagon, a decision over Kyung Ho Kang.
Things have gone great for Rinya Nakamura since pivoting from freestyle wrestling to MMA. He soared through Road to UFC in 2022, capping off the tournament with a 30 second KO over Toshiomi Kazama (see it here). He then took decisions over Fernie Garcia and Carlos Vera.
I’m expecting Nakamura’s wrestling game to be far too powerful for Gafurov to handle (so do Vegas based on those odds).
Nakamura has a 90% takedown accuracy and he completes 3.72 takedowns per 15 minutes. Gafurov’s takedown defense is 68%, which is not bad. But he’s not had to stuff takedowns of the quality that Nakamura will be launching at him. Gafurov was taken down 3 of 11 times by Kang last time out. And Kang’s wrestling is nothing to write home about.
Gafurov will need to win this fight standing. But he’s not as clean or as powerful a striker as Nakamura. It’s going to be a tough night for him. I think Nakamura likely finishes this one inside the distance.
Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+170)
Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Ricky Turcios (+280) vs. Bernardo Sopaj (-380)
Turcios lost to Raul Rosas Jr. last time out (see it here). That was a wild fight with plenty of animosity on either side. It dropped Turcios to 2-2 since he won the 2021 season of The Ultimate Fighter. His two wins, over Brady Hiestand and Kevin Natividad, were split decisions.
Sopaj lost his promotional debut in March, being felled by a late flying knee from Vinicius Oliveira (see it here). Sopaj was able to out-wrestle Oliveira in that bout before being wiped out by that “Knockout of the Year” candidate. He came into that fight on short notice. And Oliveira has since shown he’s no fluke, beating Ricky Simon in his last fight.
In what little we’ve seen of him, Sopaj has showed us he has takedowns in his arsenal. And we know Turcios struggles to defend against those (45 percent defense). We also know Turcios doesn’t have the striking needed to dissuade someone from shooting in on him (37 percent accuracy on significant strikes).
I’m happy with the favorite in this fight and I anticipate a pretty dull affair with lots of takedowns and low output ground control.
Best bet: Bernardo Sopaj moneyline (-380)
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Tagir Ulanbekov (-360) vs. Clayton Carpenter (+270)
Tagir Ulanbekov struggled to get a fight in 2024. He was booked to fight Alex Perez, but was then rebooked to face Joshua Van. He fell out of that Van fight after getting sick on weigh-in day. His quiet 2024 came after he managed just one fight in 2023, a submission win over Cody Durden.
Clayton Carpenter has been slightly more active with a fight a year since appearing on Contender Series in 2022. He beat Edgar Chairez by decision on that show. He’s since submitted Juancamilo Ronderos and, most recently, Lucas Rocha. He won Performance of the Night for his Rocha win.
I’m a little confused by this line. Carpenter opened at +190, but a lot of money has come in on Ulanbekov. I like Carpenter in this fight, given Ulanbekov’s long stint on the sidelines.
Ulanbekov will have a lot of reach on Carpenter, but he won’t be too focused on a striking battle. Carpenter’s takedown defense is yet to be tested in UFC (he’s literally not faced a single takedown attempt in the Octagon). I like what I’ve seen from Carpenter, though, despite the level of competition. With that price I think he’s worth a punt.
Best bet: Clayton Carpenter moneyline (+270)
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
UFC 311 Long Shots!
Here’s a couple of long shots for those folks who want to put a little on something that might come with a big return.
Merab Dvalishvhili to win via split or majority devision (+900)
I touched on this above. I think Dvalishvili is a live dog and I think this fight is going to be close. I think there will be endless wrestling scrambles with both men spending time in top control and both men hitting sweeps and reversals. I think the judges might differ in their opinions on who is winning a fight like that. Dvalishvili fights with a personality and liveliness that might coax them onto his side. Either way, these odds seem too big to turn down for a champion winning a close fight.
Islam Makhachev to win by TKO/KO/DQ, round 4 (+4000)
Arman Tsarukyan was one of Islam Makhachev’s biggest tests, but he’s a test he passed. And I think he’ll pass that test again. Tsarukyan got tired in the third round of their first fight. I think this fight will go into a fourth round, at least. If we get there and Tsarukyan (who looks to be carrying more muscle this time around) gets tired again he might not get his hand up in time to block Makhachev’s head kick (which he almost got him with in the first fight).
Kevin Holland vs. Reinier de Ridder - Point to be Deducted - Yes (+2000)
This has to hit eventually! Weird stuff can happen in a Kevin Holland fight. And Reinier de Ridder gave us a pretty chaotic contest in his UFC debut. If De Ridder is going to win this, it will probably need to be by submission. I can see a scenario where De Ridder is working on something and Holland grabs the fence or gloves to stop it. Now, if only a referee would punish such an infraction.
Remember that Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 311 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+/ESPNEWS “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To check out the latest and greatest UFC 311: “Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
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