Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) wants you to fork over $80 for a pay-per-view (PPV) fight card that probably didn’t make anyone’s holiday wish list, though it does feature one of the most important fights in the welterweight division. UFC 310: “Pantoja vs. Asakura” is set to go down this Sat. night (Dec. 7, 2024) inside T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, featuring the flyweight title fight pitting reigning division champion Alexandre Pantoja against Japanese fighting sensation Kai Asakura. Before that five-round showdown gets underway, somebody’s “O” has got to go when Shavkat Rakhmonov goes head-to-head with fellow undefeated welterweight contender Ian Machado Garry.
Let’s break down the entire five-fight main card below.
125 lbs.: UFC Flyweight Champion Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja (28-5) vs. Kai Asakura (21-4)
One of the great things about marketing a new fighter, at least in terms of casual UFC fans (who make up the bulk of PPV purchases), is that you can create whatever narrative you want. Look no further than Dana White’s excited delivery in the UFC 310 announcement video, where he starts with “Listen to me everybody” before describing flyweight title challenger Kai Asakura as a “vicious striker” who is part of a “surging Japanese MMA scene.”
So was Takanori Gomi back in 2010, before getting mopped by average lightweights.
Asakura is tasked with fighting current flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja, winner of six straight. I guess now is a good time to mention that Asakura has never seen a fourth round in his entire pro career and may have to go five against “The Cannibal.” He’s also never competed inside the Octagon and will have to deal with an entirely new ruleset. In addition, Asakura has not competed at 125 pounds in roughly seven years.
He was also smothered and covered like a Denny’s hashbrown in his RIZIN 33 loss to Hiromasa Ougikubo. Asakura has precision striking with knockout power but I’m not breaking out the bubbly for knockout wins over journeycans like Alan Yamaniha and Kenta Takizawa; who combined, have 23 losses. Asakura had one chance to prove his mettle against UFC-caliber opposition, a RIZIN 20 showdown against Manel Kape, where Asakura got smoked like a Westphalian salami.
Pantoja defeated Kape at UFC Vegas 18.
The Brazilian has never been finished in 33 trips to the cage. More importantly, he averages 2.61 takedowns per 15 minutes of competition (and sports double-digit submission wins) and is coming off three five-round title fights — all victories. Unless his coaches are completely braindead and they turn this into a kickboxing match, there’s very little data to support an upset victory by Asakura, who will be in for a very rude awakening on Saturday night.
Where’s Chris Leben and his golden nugget when you need him?
Prediction: Pantoja def. Asakura by submission
170 lbs.: Shavkat “Nomad” Rakhmonov (18-0) vs. Ian “The Future” Garry (15-0)
Shavkat Rakhmonov was originally booked to fight Belal Muhammad in the UFC 310 main event; however, “Remember the Name” forgot the Tinactin and developed a fight-canceling infection on his foot. That forced matchmakers to poach Ian Garry from the UFC Tampa headliner and insert “The Future” into the UFC 310 co-headliner. Fortunately, both fighters were already preparing for five-round contests, so we can (hopefully) get a definitive outcome in what should be a pivotal bout at 170 pounds. There’s been some debate as to whether or not this was the right move, since it likely burns one top contender in a division in dire need of some new blood; but hey, we still have No. 4-ranked Jack Della Maddalena ... right?
The 30 year-old Rakhmonov is 18-0 with all 18 victories coming by way of knockout or submission. That’s an incredible stat and almost beggars belief, though you cold argue that “Nomad” had a little help along the way. In addition to an assembly line of warm bodies on the international circuit, like the 9-7 Michal Wiencek and the 7-6 Adam Tsurov, Rakhmonov had the benefit of catching some very tough UFC veterans on the back end of their respective careers, like Stephen Thompson and Neil Magny. In fact, the average age of his six UFC opponents is 38 and two of them are no longer signed to UFC. His record and achievements inside the cage are spectacular regardless of his opposition, no question, but when you’re fighting at this level of competition against an equally-dangerous opponent, the finer details matter, even if it sounds like nitpicking.
Ian Garry has eight fights under the UFC banner, two more than Rakhmonov, and has also enjoyed a lineup comprised of washouts and elder statesmen. After pitching a shutout against Neil Magny, “The Future” squeaked past Geoff Neal with a split decision, a fight that raised some concerns about where Garry belonged in the Top 10 of the welterweight division (the rankings panel settled on No. 7). A follow-up victory over former Bellator bruiser Michael Page helped reestablish Garry, 27, as a formidable contender; but again, Page is 37 years old and competing in the twilight of his career. Garry’s inability to secure the finish as the competition got tougher is also a red flag because Rakhmonov will be his most dangerous foe to date. Deciding who wins and who loses may depend on how much stock you put into those training camp sessions, where “Nomad” was able to get the best of “The Future.” That’s not the same as a full-blown MMA fight, admittedly, but if Song Kenan can score two takedowns on Garry, Rakhmonov should have equal or greater success.
This may come down to who sports the better gas tank.
Prediction: Rakhmonov def. Garry by decision
265 lbs.: Ciryl “Bon Gamin” Gane (12-2) vs. Alexander “Drago” Volkov (38-10)
Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov will rematch a little over three years after they first met because ... who else are they gonna fight? Their first go-round was competitive and probably a lot closer on the books than some people realize. Gane walked away with a decision victory after outstriking Volkov and in the time that has passed since UFC Vegas 30, “Bon Gamin” is 3-2, losing a pair of title fights to Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones. As for “Drago,” he went 5-1, getting submitted by interim champion Tom Aspinall along the way, but is currently riding a four-fight win streak with three finishes. That includes his upset victory over Sergei Pavlovich in the UFC Saudi Arabia co-main event last June. As it stands, Gane is ranked one spot above Volkov at No. 2, which should tell you everything you need to know about the stagnant waters in the 265-pound weight class. I’m starting to develop an appreciation for the drama between Jones and Aspinall; because without it, there’s not a lot to be excited about in the heavyweight division.
Volkov didn't attempt a single takedown when he fought Gane in early 2021. I’m sure he regrets that decision after watching Ngannou and Jones ground “Bon Gamin” with relative ease. To be fair, Volkov is a striker by trade and only attempted one takedown across his last nine fights and that came in his second-round submission victory over hard-hitting Aussie bruiser Tai Tuivasa. Will we see him dive for the Frenchman’s legs at UFC 310? Probably not, simply because Volkov is firing on all cylinders and likely feels unstoppable after piecing up Pavlovich. It's also worth pointing out that Gane attempted four takedowns against “Drago” at UFC Vegas 30 and got stuffed all four times. I’m sure it doesn’t help that Gane scores just 0.58 takedowns per bout with an abysmal takedown average of 21 percent. Still, there’s more to that strategy than just getting the fight to the floor, it’s also about disrupting timing and taking away the low kick. Whether or not that was part of Gane’s gameplan is unclear, but probable.
Gane, 34, is a sizable favorite at -345 on the moneyline, which feels a bit high when you consider the run that Volkov has been on, coupled with the competitive nature of their first fight. I’m not telling you to run out and add the 36 year-old “Drago” to your betting parlay, but I am telling you that a bookie-busting upset might not come as that much of a surprise when you look closer at the available data for this three-round slugfest.
Prediction: Volkov def. Gane by decision
145 lbs.: Bryce “Thug Nasty” Mitchell (16-2) vs. Kron Gracie (5-2)
I’m not sure why Kron Gracie is getting prime real estate on a major PPV card, especially against a nutjob like Bryce Mitchell, considering the Brazilian has just one appearance over the last five years and is coming off consecutive losses in which he looked amateurish, at best. I know there was a time in the not-too-distant past when fans would “ooh” and “ahh” at the Gracie name, which forever holds an important place in the annals of combat sports history, but in 2024 it’s not going to put a lot of butts in seats without a performance that matches the legacy of the family. I don’t expect Kron to rise to the occasion because he’s still fighting like it’s 1996, slinking around the cage with fugly standup while hoping to catch his careless opponent with a crafty submission.
Bryce Mitchell is dumb enough to deliver it on a silver platter.
Not that I think Gracie is going to win, just saying of all the opponents to make it possible, “Thug Nasty” is probably that guy. Assuming Mitchell has recovered from his near-death experience at the hands of Josh Emmett and is still capable of rational thought, there’s no reason to think he doesn’t steamroll Gracie fairly early. Mitchell is a talented wrestler and the superior striker with the ability (and desire) to play Whac-A-Mole with Gracie’s dome every time the Brazilian works for a limb or tries to pull guard. There’s a reason you don't see grappling titans like Gordon Ryan and Nicky Rod transition to cage fighting, where the payouts are exponentially higher. Let’s face it, no-gi grappling is a lot harder to execute wearing MMA gloves while someone of equal size and strength is pounding on your skull at full blast.
Unranked featherweight Charles Jourdain didn’t have any trouble keeping Gracie in check (blame that “bad advice” he got two days before the fight) and I don’t expect Mitchell too, either. I think it’s just a question of how aggressive “Thug Nasty” wants to be in each round, because the higher the output, the more he’s at risk for getting countered or locked up. Mitchell is currently a -800 favorite on the moneyline and as much as I hate lopsided odds, it’s hard for me to build a case for Gracie that’s competent enough to dispute them.
Prediction: Mitchell def. Gracie by technical knockout
145 lbs.: Nate “The Train” Landwehr (18-5) vs. “Korean Superboy” Doo Ho Choi (15-4-1)
Doo Hoo Choi has been a part of the featherweight roster for over 10 years, debuting at a time when Jose Aldo was division champion and top contender Chad Mendes was nipping at his heels. Across the last decade, the “Korean Superboy” has only competed eight times, missing significant chunks of his competitive prime for mandatory military service (not unlike “The Korean Zombie”) as well as various injuries and setbacks. Of those eight fights, Choi has claimed victory four times, with one bout going to a draw against three losses. That doesn’t really paint the whole picture because Choi captured five straight post-fight performance bonuses from 2015-2019, including three “Fight of the Night” honors. He’s not going to “wow” fans with his technical acumen or dazzle anyone with his ground game, but you will never find yourself bored by a Doo Hoo Choi fight.
20 professional fights, 15 finishes.
That’s what makes this PPV curtain jerker such a fun matchup and the right kind of bout to get the crowd jumping. Nate Landwehr has a similar car crash offense that led him to $50,000 post-fight performance bonuses in four of his last five outings, which includes his knockout win over Jamall Emmers at UFC Atlantic City. Landwehr has been fighting professionally since 2012 and it’s a shame UFC didn’t scoop him up earlier. “The Train” got off to a rocky start after signing with the promotion in early 2020, dropping two of his first three, but he’s since found his footing and went on to capture four of his next five, finishing three of those bouts before the final bell. At age 36, I’m not sure Landwehr will be able to find himself in title contention but as long as he keeps putting on exciting fights, he’s likely to be gainfully employed for the foreseeable future.
The bookies have this one close to even with some outlets giving Landwehr just a slight edge. That feels about right but I can’t pick either combatant with any confidence. Both fighters are coming off great performances this year and we should expect more of the same tomorrow night in “Sin City.” Choi may be the crisper puncher but it’s hard to bet against “The Train” in a firefight.
Prediction: Landwehr def. Choi by knockout
Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 310 fight card right RIGHT HERE, starting with the early ESPN/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches at 6 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining undercard balance on ESPN2/ESPN+ at 8 p.m. ET, before the UFC 310 PPV main card start time at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.
To check out the latest and greatest UFC 310: “Pantoja vs. Asakura” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here. For the updated and finalized UFC 310 fight card and PPV lineup click here.
N'oubliez pas de consulter les événements à venir avec le calendrier de l'UFC
