UFC 309 is live TONIGHT (Sat., Nov. 16, 2024). Here’s a look at all the betting line movements as we head to MSG in New York City with Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic.
UFC 309 happens TONIGHT (Sat., Nov. 16, 2024) inside Madison Square Garden in New York, NY. The pay-per-view (PPV) main card (see it here) is headlined by Heavyweight champion, Jon Jones. Jones will be attempting his first title defense against the man who holds the record for Heavyweight title defenses, Stipe Miocic.
Our co-main event is a Lightweight banger (and a rematch) with Charles Oliveira meeting Michael Chandler. Rounding out the ESPN+-streamed PPV card are Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig, Viviane Araujo vs. Karine Silva and Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop.
There’s lots of great fights on UFC 309’s “Prelims,” too.
On that portion of the card, we’ll see Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee, Chris Weidman vs. Eryk Anders and Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson.
I’ve been watching the lines (see them here) for all the fights on UFC 309 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below you’ll find all the line movement info since the odds were released (per Best Fight Odds).
UFC 309 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Jon Jones (-637 -15.5%) vs. Stipe Miocic (+454 +38.6%)
The oddsmakers had this as a much closer fight than the public has. They opened with Jon Jones at -298 and Stipe Miocic at +240, but public betting has changed that quite dramatically, with Miocic being pushed out to +500 territory.
When this fight was scheduled for last year the opening odds were +170 Miocic and -200 Jones. The public betting pushed Miocic out to +300 before the fight was cancelled due to an injury to Jones.
Both instances show that, in this match-up, the public are not feeling very confident in Miocic. Considering he hasn’t fought in three years, this could be a case of many members of the betting public not being that familiar with Miocic and the exploits that made him, statistically, the most successful UFC Heavyweight champion of all time.
This is great news if you’re someone who thinks Miocic is going to shock the world on Saturday night. If that’s you, it might be worth holding off since his odds are still trending upwards.
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Charles Oliveira (-260 -8.8%) vs. Michael Chandler (+207 +14%)
There hasn’t been much line movement with our main event. The public must be pretty satisfied with Charles Oliveira as a decent-sized favorite over Michael Chandler.
Chandler comes into this one off a long lay-off because of Conor McGregor’s inability to commit to a fight or do what he needs to do to make it happen. Oliveira has been more active; however, last time out, he lost to Arman Tsarukyan.
Oliveira won the first fight between these two, despite being rocked early.
For that first fight the lines opened at -178 Oliveira and +146 Chandler. The public liked Chandler that time around. They bet his odds down to +120 (and Oliveira’s to -125).
The public were wrong that time around will be wrong again?
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC
Bo Nickal (-1308 -3.1%) vs. Paul Craig (+755 +18.1%)
The oddsmakers started Bo Nickal off at -1000 and there’s been minimal public interest in him since, moving his number just a couple of points. That’s not due to a lack of faith or anything.
It’s simply because there’s no value to be had there.
The lack of interest in Paul Craig has driven up his price, though. He opened at +600 and that’s risen by almost twenty percent.
This line is nothing new for Nickal. He opened at -1100 and closed at -1430 in his last fight, versus Cody Brundage. He opened as -2500 and closed at -1300 against Val Woodburn.
Craig has seen his odds skyrocket in his last few UFC fights. Against Caio Borralho he opened at +154, but that exploded to +475 (for good reason, Borralho mopped the floor with him). Previously he saw his opening line of +200 rise to +360 against Brendan Allen (who submitted him late). Before that, against Andre Muniz, he opened at +140 and that rose to +200 (a fight he won via technical knockout).
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Viviane Araujo (+229 +11.9%) vs. Karine Silva (-291 -6.8%)
Viviane Araujo opened at +190 and spiked at +235 on Nov. 5, 2024. Her line then dropped to +213 on Nov. 13, 2024, before lengthening slightly to what I have now. Throughout all that Karine Silva’s line hasn’t changed much.
This is a pretty close fight, though Silva has certainly done more in the cage lately. I can understand why a few folks might be making big bets on Araujo when they saw her at plus odds. She’s been in there with some good fighters and it’s not out of the question that she will be able to outlast Silva for a decision.
Personally, though, I like Silva’s more well-rounded game and I think she’ll come out ahead after a close decision (maybe a split or majority).
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Mauricio Ruffy (-882 -2.7%) vs. James Llontop (+573 +10.8%)
The public were right about Mauricio Ruffy last time out. In his proper UFC debut against Jamie Mullarkey, he opened as a +150 underdog. But, that shifted by 80.4% to make him a -225 favorite. He then went on to obliterate Mullarkey with patented Fighting Nerd style striking.
His line hasn’t changed much in this match-up with James Llontop. The fight recently got switched from a Lightweight contest to a Catchweight at 165 pounds. With Llontop missing weight by one pound, I think we can assume the late change was because of him struggling and not Ruffy.
Llontop’s odds might go even higher in the next 24 hours because of that (if the fight goes ahead).
UFC 309 Late ‘Prelims’ Line Movement
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Jonathan Martinez (+119 -2.3%) vs. Marcus McGhee (-144 +0.8%)
Jonathan Martinez opened at +124. Then on Nov. 4, 2024, his line shifted to -106. His line started to lengthen against on Nov. 10, 2024.
Marcus McGhee opened at -148. On Nov. 5, 2024, his line shortened to -112 before then lengthening at Nov. 9, 2024.
All this movement speaks to this being a close and hard to call fight. McGhee has looked good so far in his UFC career. Martinez has looked good, too, other than his last fight — where he looked totally overwhelmed opposite Jose Aldo.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Chris Weidman (-104 -38.3%) vs. Eryk Anders (-117 +19.8%)
There’s been some interesting betting activity on this fight. Chris Weidman actually opened up as the +170 underdog, but he’s been steadily bet into favorite territory, dropping a whopping 38.3%. Eryk Anders was the -205 favorite before falling a little to -117.
I’m a little puzzled by the movement here. I don’t have any faith in a 40-year-old Chris Weidman. Usually you see this kind of movement with fighters who are especially popular (like Sean O’Malley and Paddy Pimblett).
But, is Weidman a draw in 2024? I’m not so sure.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Jim Miller (+147 +30.6%) vs. Damon Jackson (-118 -40.4%)
We have a flip here!
Damon Jackson opened at +118 and Jim Miller opened at -140. But, the public clearly thinks that Jackson should be the favorite in this match-up of crafty veterans. My pick is Jackson, too, but I don’t think many folks out there believe this will be anything other than a very close fight.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
David Onama (-956 +0.4%) vs. Roberto Romero (+615 +2.1%)
Roberto Romero is coming in on very late notice for Lucas Almeida. The opening lines only just came out, which is the reason there has been minimal movement here.
UFC 309 Early‘Prelims’ Line Movement
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Marcin Tybura (-148 -5.6%) vs. Jhonata Diniz (+122 +5.4%)
Not much change here.
The public seem very content with the oddsmakers suggesting Jhonata Diniz is biting off more than he can chew, jumping from a failed Derrick Lewis match-up to Marcin Tybura (someone with far better grappling than him).
Photo by Mike Roach/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Mickey Gall (-142 -29.5%) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (+117 +21.5%)
We have another flip!
Mickey Gall opened at +120 and Ramiz Brahimaj opened at -142. But, this is another fight where the public think Vegas is wrong. They think Gall (a more recognizable name) should be the favorite.
This line movement has given Gall minus odds for the first time since he fought Diego Sanchez in 2019 (he was TKO’d by Sanchez in that fight).
Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images
Oban Elliott (-286 -26.3%) vs. Bassil Hafez (+226 +32.5%)
The public agreed with Vegas that Oban Elliott should be the favorite against Bassil Hafez. However, the public also thought the oddsmakers were being a little conservative. Elliott started out as a -142 favorite, with Hafez as the +120 underdog.
Hafez won as a big favorite last time out (-425 vs. Mickey Gall). In his UFC debut, a short-notice fight with Jack Della Maddalena, he was a massive +420 underdog. Despite his long odds he gave a very good account of himself opposite the Aussie, losing via split decision.
Veronica Hardy (-139 -1.2%) vs. Eduarda Moura (+120 0%)
Not a lot of movement to speak on here.
Veronica Hardy is coming off three victories (all by decision). Eduarda Moura is coming off a loss to Denise Gomes. She’s fighting at Flyweight here after missing weight in her two previous Strawweight outings.
UFC 309 Biggest Line Movements
TLDR: Here are the biggest line movements at UFC 309:
- Damon Jackson: From +118 underdog to -181 favorite (-40.4 percent) (B)
- Stipe Miocic: From +240 underdog to +454 underdog (+38.6 percent) (A)
- Chris Weidman: From +170 underdog to -104 favorite (-38.3 percent) (B)
- Bassil Hafez: From +120 underdog to +226 underdog (+32.5 percent) (A)
- Jim Miller: From -140 favorite to +147 underdog (-30.6 percent) (D)
- Mickey Gall: From +120 underdog to -142 favorite (+29.5 percent) (B)
- Oban Elliott: From -142 favorite to -286 favorite (-26.3 percent) (E)
Since I’ve been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.
A: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 2-15.*
B: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 7-4.
C: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 0-4.
D: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 2-4.
E: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have shortened are 1-1.
*The only winners in this group was Jesus Aguilar who submitted UFC debutante Stewart Nicoll at UFC 305 and Mateusz Rebecki who beat Myktybek Orolbai at UFC 308.
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
UFC 309 Best Underdogs Bets
There are a lot of big underdogs on this card. Stipe Miocic, Paul Craig, Bassil Hafez, James Llontop and Roberto Romero have eye-watering odds that could return a lot of dough if you’re braze enough to bet on them.
I don’t see any of them being worth the risk, though.
Of the safer underdog bets, there are a few fighters who opened as favorites who are now available at plus odds (Jim Miller and Ramiz Brahimaj). Either of those guys have a great chance to win.
Personally, I like Eduarda Moura’s chances now she’s at a more comfortable weight class. I also like Jonathan Martinez to rebound from his disappointing showing in Rio.
Enough about me, though, which of these underdogs do you like the most?
Remember that Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 309 fight card right here, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET (simulcast on ESPNews at 8 p.m. ET), before the pay-per-view (PPV) main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To check out the latest and greatest UFC 309: “Jones vs. Miocic” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
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