UFC Edmonton is live this weekend (Sat., Nov. 2, 2024), featuring top Flyweights Brandon Moreno and Amir Albazi in the main event. Checkout the odds for that banger of a fight (and much more) right here!
UFC Edmonton takes place this weekend (Sat., Nov., 2, 2024) at Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta, Canada. The main event will feature Flyweight contenders as former champion Brandon Moreno takes on Amir Albazi. This fight comes despite Moreno announcing a hiatus back in March.
The co-main event is former Strawweight champion Rose Namajunas vs. current Flyweight contender Erin Blanchfield. This bout was initially booked as the headliner here, before the UFC pulled the old switcheroo. Also on the main card we’ve got ‘The Black Beast’ Derrick Lewis taking on Jhonata Diniz.
The “Prelims” are headlined by Aimann Zahabi vs. Pedro Munhoz. Most of the remaining undercard fights play into the Canada vs. World angle, with match-ups like Mike Malott vs. Trevin Giles and Charles Jourdain vs. Victor Henry.
Let’s checkout the money lines on “Moreno vs. Albazi” and all the other bouts on the card ...
UFC Edmonton Main Card Money Line Odds
Photo by Louis Grasse/PXimages/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Brandon Moreno (-160) vs. Amir Albazi (+135)
Brandon Moreno is coming off two back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. Both those losses were close split decisions. The first was to Alexandre Pantoja in July 2023, a bout which cost him his UFC Flyweight title. The second was against Brandon Royval in the headliner of the UFC Mexico City show in February. After that loss to Royval, Moreno announced he would take a break from fighting, stating he felt “just too tired.” That hiatus hasn’t lasted very long, though.
Amir Albazi has had a very long break from fighting. Though, not by choice. The Iraqi has been on the sidelines since his split decision win over Kai Kara-France in June, 2023. Albazi got the win that night, despite must onlookers scoring the fight for Kara-France. It wasn’t a robbery, though, just a very close fight. Albazi’s long absence since then was due to neck surgery, something which cost him a date with Moreno earlier this year.
Moreno is the slight favorite in this bout. He’s been a favorite in all his fights since his second bout with Deiveson Figueiredo (which he won by rear naked choke — see it here).
These are the longest odds we’ve ever seen on Albazi in UFC. Against Kara-France he was -110. Prior to that he was often a heavy favorite.
I think we can expect a close fight, here, which is typical when it comes to the elite of the Flyweight division. Given how they fight, we are likely to see mostly a stand up contest. Neither has much of an advantage when it comes to wrestling/grappling, so attempts to win the fight in that dimension of the game may not bear fruit. I’m expecting both men will try and mix in takedowns here and there to steal rounds. I just think we’re likely to see them cancel each other out in that department. For me, that leaves the striking game as the most important area to focus on in this fight.
Moreno lands more volume than Albazi, not by much, though (just one extra significant strike per minute). Albazi is marginally better at defending strikes. He absorbs a little less and has a little better defense, but none of these numbers are different enough to draw much of a conclusion on how this will go.
The intangibles in this fight are interesting, with Moreno coming in seven months after saying he was “tired” and wanted a hiatus and with Albazi returning after a year and half due to significant surgery. It’s hard to tell which of those situations has the largest negative effect.
I think the best bets for this bout are all focused on the belief that this fight will go the distance. Ten of Moreno’s 16 UFC fights have gone the distance. Two of the fights that didn’t go to a decision ended due to injuries.
Albazi has fought in UFC five times and gone to a decision twice. Two of his three finishes are in fights he was a -450 or more favorite.
The line for this has been set at 4.5 rounds. The over is -230. Fight to go the distance is -200. Fight to start round five is -280. Not a lot of value to be had here. One of these might be a good choice to stick with something else for a two-bet parlay.
Betonline has same game parlays available for this fight, too, where you can pair a winner with an over/under bet. You have to stick your neck out on a winner for those, though.
Betonline also has prop bets for winning rounds. With how close these rounds will be (and with some possibly odd judging on tap in Alberta) that feels a little too risky.
Ultimately, I think the best bet is usually the safer one. In this instance, that’s the fight going the distance. If you’re feeling confident on the winner, there’s great options to pair that with to get plus money (Moreno and over 4.5 rounds is +120 and Albazi to win at Over 1.5 rounds is +150).
Best bet: Fight to go the distance - Yes (-200)
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Erin Blanchfield (-135) vs. Rose Namajunas (+115)
Rose Namajunas got a gimme at UFC Denver this summer. She was supposed to fight Maycee Barber, someone just as used to the altitude conditions as she was, but instead she got a late replacement. The replacement is Tracy Cortez, who was flown in from sea level on about three weeks notice. Namajunas, predictably, beat the eye lashes off of her.
Before this fight Namajunas beat Amanda Ribas. Before that she lost to Manon Fiorot, in her Flyweight debut.
Blanchfield is coming off a loss to Fiorot, herself. That loss, in March, snapped her undefeated streak that stretched back to her Invicta days in 2019 (where she lost to Cortez via split decision). In UFC Blanchfield has stopped Molly McCann and Jessica Andrade via submission (see those wins here and here).
I think this will be one of those fights where Namajunas’ takedown defence is going to hurt her. On her career she has a 59% takedown defense. Which is good, but not elite. Most her opponents have been able to get her down. Cortez managed it twice. And Ribas got her down four times.
I think Blanchfield will get her down, too. On the ground, Blanchfield’s submission game could cause Namajunas some problems. Namajunas is a fine grappler, but I would favor Blanchfield to win those scrambles on the ground even if she’s not able to lock in a fight ending submission.
This is a five round fight. So that has me pumping the breaks a little on Blanchfield. Her first main event and five-rounder was that loss to Fiorot. The situation didn’t really dictate that loss, though, Fiorot was just the better fighter (winning every round with every judge).
Namajunas is one of the more experienced five round fighters in the division. I just get the feeling that the Cortez win did have a lot to do with the situation and not where she is currently at as a fighter.
Ultimately, I like Blanchfield, but I also believe in Namajunas’ submission defense.
Best bet: Erin Blanchfield via unanimous decision (+200)
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Derrick Lewis (+150) vs. Jhonata Diniz (-180)
Last time out Derrick Lewis started slowly, as he often does, before storming back and stopping his opponent with strikes, as he sometimes does. His victim in that fight was Rodrigo Nascimento, who we’ll see earlier on the card. As he’s gotten older (turns 40 in February) these sequences have become fewer and farther between. ‘The Black Beast’ is 5-5 in his last ten, which is pretty good for an aging Heavyweight. His recent losses were against Jailton Almeida and Serghei Spivac. Between those he managed a first round flying knee TKO of Marcos Rogerio de Lima (see it here).
Jhonata Diniz is now 8-0 in pro MMA, having moved over from GLORY and kickboxing relatively recently. In his UFC debut he was taken down by Austen Lane, by ease, in the first before landing a brutal KO blow in the second (see it here). In his second appearance he beat Karl Williams. Williams, for some reason, decided to stand with Diniz and not use his significant wrestling advantage.
I think we’re going to see some good ol’ fashioned standing and banging in this bout. I know Lewis famously opted to grind out a win over Francis Ngannou back in the day, but I don’t think he has the strength and conditioning to manage that at 39 years-old, even if Diniz possesses similar weaknesses to that older version of Ngannou.
Lewis is tough, but not so tough that he doesn’t get stopped. Three of his last five losses have been by KO or TKO. And I think that’s what we’re going to see in this fight.
Diniz has one punch stopping power and I don’t think it will take too long until Lewis feels it.
The bookies agree with me, too. Diniz to win by KO/TKO/DQ is just -120. You can get him with the point spread for close to that (-150). Diniz to win by KO/TKO/DQ in round 1 has some value with +100. Diniz to win and under 1.5 adds a little more value with +125.
I like that last bet, since I think Diniz will be smart enough to try and finish Lewis early and not let him get comfortable (and dangerous).
Prediction: Jhonata Diniz to Win and Under 1.5 (+125)
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Caio Machado (-160) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+135)
Brendson Ribeiro looked OK at UFC Saudi Arabia, landing heavy leg kicks and hurting the highly favored Magomed Gadzhiyasulov. However, he was then taken down a bunch and lost a decision. Previously Ribeiro was finished by Zhang Migyang (see it here).
Caio Machado is coming down from Heavyweight to fight Ribeiro. He’d gone 0-2 in UFC at that weight class, losing decisions to Mick Parkin and Don’Tale Mayes.
Ribeiro is massive for Light Heavyweight. He’s an inch shorter than Machado, but he’ll have a three inch reach advantage. So Machado likely won’t be able to size bully his first 205 lber.
I’m not sold on Machado as the favorite here. He’s not been very impressive in his UFC bouts thus far. Ribeiro hasn’t been great, either. But I did like his first round against Gadzhiyasulov. If he follows that gameplan again, Machado won’t be able to bail himself out with wrestling. Ribeiro might also be able to take Machado down and earn a decision that way, too (like Parkin did).
I think we’re in for a bit of a slog here, with low output striking from both men and maybe an occasional takedown from Ribeiro. That would equal a decision win for Ribeiro, which you can get right now for +550. That’s what I’m going for here. A safer option would be Fight Goes to Decision at +150.
Best bet: Brendson Ribeiro via decision (+550)
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Marc-Andre Barriault (-190) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+160)
Marc-Andre Barriault was laid out flat by Joe Pyfer in his last bout (see it here). That followed a split decision loss to Chris Curtis. Dustin Stoltzfus lost to a spinning back elbow from Brunno Fereira in his last fight (see it here). Both these guys will be looking to rebound from those losses and potentially save their spots on the UFC roster.
Barriault is the more comfortable, and powerful, striker. He lands over six significant strikes per minute. Stoltzfus lands less than four. Stoltzfus is the more accomplished wrestler, landing 2.45 takedowns per 15 minutes to Barriault’s 0.21.
Barriault is not bad at defending takedowns. He’s got a 67 percent career rating. However, that would be much higher if you threw out his fight with Anthony Hernandez where he was taken down eight times. Last year Eryk Anders when 1-11 on takedown attempts against him.
In addition to believing that Stoltzfus might struggle to take Barriault down, I’m also not sure if Stoltzfus has the discipline to go to his wrestling over striking in this bout. We’ve seen him, a few times, get drawn into a striking battle against much better strikers. I think that will happen here, much to the benefit of the favorite Barriault.
Best bet: Marc-Andre Barriault -3.5 (-110)
Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images
Mike Malott (-265) vs. Trevin Giles (+215)
Mike Malott heads to Edmonton as a decent sized favorite over Trevin Giles. He was a -380 favorite in his last fight, against Neil Magny. He was doing pretty well in that fight until the veteran gatekeeper turned the tables on him and finished him late infront of his hometown crowd (see it here). That was Malott’s second career loss, the first being against Hakeem Dawodu on the Canadian regional scene.
Giles was a recent victim of Carlos Prates, getting KO’d with a straight left (see it here). With what we’ve seen out of Prates since then, I think we can forgive Giles for that (plus Giles had some good moments in that fight). Previous to that he was submitted by Gabriel Bonfim (see it here).
These two have actually faced each other in pro grappling before, with Malott winning a decision in 2022.
Malott has been more grapple heavy in his UFC career to date. Giles has been more of a free swinger and he’s paid for that. Giles has been stopped a lot in his career, though that’s because he’s fought some very tough opponents (like Michael Morales and Dricus Du Plessis).
I think the fight not going the distance is the play in this bout, considering Malott has the tools to submit and possibly ground and pound TKO Giles. Giles hasn’t won by stoppage since 2017, but he needs to win this one and might be able to pull off a surprise — especially if Malott fades late on.
Unfortunately Betonline only has total rounds (1.5) and moneyline on offer for us. I think the stoppage will come late in this fight, so I’m picking the over.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-145)
UFC Edmonton ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Aiemann Zahabi (-110) vs. Pedro Munhoz (-110)
Aiemann Zahabi has been with UFC since 2017. Remarkably he’s only had seven fights during his tenure. The 36-year-old is currently on a four fight winning streak and last time out he handed Javid Basharat the first L of his career (while a +575 underdog).
Pedro Munhoz’s only wins since 2020 are decisions over Jimmie Rivera and Chris Gutierrez. His last fight, in March, was a decision loss to Kyler Phillips (who was made to look quite ordinary against Rob Font a few weeks ago). At 38 there’s not much left in the tank for Munhoz, hence why UFC have decided to send him to Canada against a guy the crowd will be rooting for.
I like Zahabi in this match-up and I think he’s being given Munhoz at the right time. He has a lot of size on Munhoz, too, including a three inch reach advantage. I think we’re going to see a striking match in this fight. And I think we’ll see Zahabi make the most of that reach, keeping Munhoz on the outside and coasting to a decision.
Munhoz had a big reach disadvantage in his last fight, with Phillips, and that resulted in him being outstruck on significant strikes 52 to 114.
Best bet: Aiemann Zahabi moneyline (-122)
Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images
Ariane da Silva (+190) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (-235)
Jasmine Jasudavicius turned Priscilla Cachoeira into a bloody mess in January, winning as a -425 favorite in Toronto (close to her hometown). She then beat Fatima Kline by unanimous decision as a -125 favorite. She’s a pretty decent sized favorite against Ariane da Silva (previously Lipski).
Da Silva was a very game opponent for Karine Silva in her last bout, which she lost by unanimous decision. Prior to that she submitted Casey O’Neill (see it here).
Da Silva was taken down a lot by Silva (five times on six attempts). She gave up over seven and a half minutes of control time, but did not allow a single submission attempt. A moral victory, sure, but still impressive given how brutally effective Silva had been on the ground in past fights.
If Jasudavicius can’t get the takedown in this fight, she could struggle — like she did when she lost to Tracy Cortez (after going two of ten on takedown attempts). Because of this I think Da Silva deserves some serious consideration as the underdog.
Da Silva’s takedown defense is very good at 71% (despite being taken down five times by Silva). Jasudavicius’ takedowns aren’t exactly stellar, either. She’s got just 41% accuracy on those. Karine Silva’s takedown accuracy is 72%.
Da Silva is also six years younger than the 36-year-old Jasudavicius.
The only odds available on this fight is the moneyline, so I’ll ride with the underdog here.
Best bet: Ariane da Silva moneyline (+190)
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Charles Jourdain (-142) vs. Victor Henry (+120)
After being starched by a Jean Silva uppercut in his last fight, Charles Jourdain has decided to drop down to Bantamweight. This will be the first time he’s fought at 135 lbs. He debuted in UFC as a Lightweight back in 2019.
Victor Henry beat up on Rani Yahya last time out, winning by standing TKO (see it here). That win came after his groin shot no contest opposite Javid Bahsarat (see that here).
I don’t want to pick Jourdain in this match because I don’t know how he will react to the weight cut. Historically, going down in weight doesn’t usually translate to great success.
I favor Henry, the natural Bantamweight, to get the win here. If Jourdain is drained from the weight-cut, someone as active and pacey as Henry is a pretty horrible match-up.
Best bet: Victor Henry moneyline (+120)
Photo by Al Powers/Zuffa LLC
Jack Shore (+215) vs. Youssef Zalal (-365)
Youssef Zalal looked amazing in his last fight, quickly taking Jarno Errens down and effortlessly taking his back for the rear naked choke (see it here). That was his second RNC win a row, after he caught Billy Quarantillo back in March.
Jack Shore lost his last fight in a weird way. His bout with Joanderson Brito was called off due to a cut on his shin (see it here). Prior to that he choked out Makwan Amirkhani.
This could be a really good fight. Zalal is definitely peaking right now so I’m favoring him to get the win. I don’t think Zalal will run through Shore like he did against Errens, though.
Best bet: Youssef Zalal moneyline (-265)
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Alexandr Romanov (-105) vs. Rodrigo Nascimento (-115)
Rodrigo Nascimento was finished by Derrick Lewis in his last fight, after winning the first round (see it here). Alexandr Romanov was tapped out by Jailton Almeida, in the first round, in his last fight (see it here).
There’s not a lot to get excited about in this bad Heavyweight MMA match-up. I think Romanov should be able to take Nascimento down and hold him down.
Best bet: Alexandr Romanov moneyline (-105)
Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images
Serhiy Sidey (-160) vs. Garret Armfield (+135)
Serhiy Sidey lost a fun split decision to Ramon Tavares in his proper UFC debut in January. Garret Armfield had no answers for Brady Hiestand’s grappling in his last bout.
Both guys are going to throw down in this one and it could be a pretty fun brawl. I like Sidey, who will be representing both Ukraine and Canada, to land the harder shots, though.
Best bet: Serhiy Sidey moneyline (-160)
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Chad Anheliger (+160) vs. Cody Gibson (-192)
Cody Gibson walked through a very spent Brian Kelleher in his last fight, taking him down and submitting him with ease. Sadly, that said more about Kelleher than it did Gibson, who is 1-2 since TUFing his way back to UFC.
Chad Anheliger is coming off a decision win over Charalampos Grigoriou in March. His UFC record stands at 2-2.
I think the odds here are mostly down to the size difference in this fight. Gibson will be four inches taller than Anheliger and possess a seven inch reach advantage. Anheliger doesn’t have the tools to make this anything other than a striking match, so I think he’s going to be on the wrong end of a decision.
Best bet: Cody Gibson moneyline (-192)
Photo by Cooper Neill/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Jamey-Lyn Horth (-210) vs. Ivana Petrovic (+175)
Jamey-Lyn Horth dropped a split decision to Veronica Hardy last time out. That was her first pro loss. Her only other UFC appearance is a decision win over Hailey Cowan.
Ivana Petrovic is also 1-1 in UFC. She lost to Luana Carolina in her debut and then submitted Na Liang in April (as a -500 favorite).
I don’t know why the bookies are paying so much respect to a 34-year-old 2-fight vet. I like the underdog here. Petrovic is bigger, longer (four inch reach advantage) and has a better ground game.
Best bet: Ivana Petrovic moneyline (+175)
Photo by Todd Lussier/Zuffa LLC
UFC Edmonton Long Shots
Here’s a couple of things that look interesting (on Betonline) for this Saturday’s UFC Edmonton card ...
Derrick Lewis vs. Jhonata Diniz - Fight to End in the Last 10 Seconds of Any Round - Yes (+3000)
Heavyweights get tired at the end of a round, no matter what round it is. I can see either guy pouring it on late and the victim in that scenario being too tired to put up much resistance. I can see a referee opting to call it there instead of letting an exhausted heavyweight crawl back to his stool.
Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi - Draw (+5000)
We get lots of close fights at Flyweight. I think it’s a given that this one goes the distance. And I’m not sure what to expect from our judges in Edmonton. We might see some interesting decisions on Saturday night. Close fight, less experienced commissioning body, why not throw a dart at a draw — especially for that price!
Marc-Andre Barriault to beat Dustin Stoltzfus via submission (+1600)
Barriault is +200 to win by TKO/KO and +175 to win by decision. His odds of winning by submission are massive, though. He’s got a submission on his record, a mounted guillotine against Jordan Wright in 2022. And Stoltzfus has submission losses on his record, too (to Gerald Meerschaert and Rodolfo Vieira). Granted, those guys are much better submission fighters than Barriault. But I don’t think it’s totally impossible that Barriault drops Stoltzfus (lost two of last three by first round TKO) and then submits him on the ground.
Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.
Remember that Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Edmonton fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 5 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 8 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Edmonton: “Moreno vs. Albazi” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
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