UFC Vegas 99 is live this weekend (Sat., Oct. 19, 2024) from inside Las Vegas’ APEX and streamed on ESPN+. Saturday’s main event has Michel Pereira meeting Anthony Hernandez in the Middleweight division. Checkout the odds for that fight (and much more) right here!
UFC Vegas 99 takes place this weekend (Sat., Oct., 19, 2024) inside UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event promises a lot of action with Michel Pereira meeting Anthony Hernandez in the Middleweight division. Pereira has scored some stunning finishes (and backflips) this year. Hernandez, meanwhile, is on a three-fight finishing streak himself. Our co-main event has two Bantamweights looking to get over the hump, with Rob Font taking on Kyler Phillips. In addition, Sumudaerji — well remembered for his bloody “Fight of the Year” contender in 2022 — is also on the main card, taking on Charles Johnson.
The “Prelims” have decent name value this week.
Indeed, the main event is Matheus Nicolau vs. Asu Almabayev. Nicolau headlined an APEX card a few months ago, though that didn’t go too well for him. The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) veterans Brad Katona and Jessica Penne are also on the card, locking horns with Jean Matsumoto and Elise Reed, respectively. The “Prelims” will also offer Robelis Despaigne a chance to prove he’s more than a one-trick pony. He’ll take on Austen Lane.
Let’s checkout the money lines on “Pereira vs. Hernandez” and all the other bouts on the card ...
UFC Vegas 99 Main Card Money Line Odds
Photo by Alexandre Loureiro/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Anthony Hernandez (-130) vs. Michel Pereira (+115)
Michel Pereira will be an underdog for only the second time in his UFC career. In his UFC debut, back in 2019, he was a +185 dog when he met Danny Roberts. That fight ended in a spectacular first round KO win for the Brazilian (see it here). He was also +100 (near even) when he beat Khaos Williams by unanimous decision. Most his other UFC contests have seen him as a decent sized favorite, though. He was -550 last time out, when he choked Ihor Potieria out cold, shortly after landing an illegal blow via back-flip (see it here).
Anthony Hernandez is used to being a favorite. He has been a favorite in his last four fights and he’s won each of them. Last time out he choked out Roman Kopylov (see it here) and before that be TKO’d Edmen Shahbayzyan (see it here). The last time Hernandez was an underdog was when he famously beat BJJ world champ Rodolfo Vieira (by submission!) back in 2021 (see it here). “Fluffy” had +375 odds for that fight. The Vieira win was his first in his current five-fight win streak.
Both these men are certified finishers. Pereira has finished over 60 percent of his fights and Hernandez has finished over 80 percent of his. Pereira is the more dangerous striker and Hernandez is the more slick submission artist. However both can hold their own in either department rather well.
This fight will likely to be determined based on where it takes place. If the fight stays standing, Pereira will have more chances to land a home run bomb or pick away for a decision win. If we spend minutes on the ground, then there is a high probability Hernandez finds a choke.
Pereira has a 94 percent takedown defense, on paper. However, that number deserves a lot of scrutiny. In his 11 UFC fights, only four opponents have attempted a takedown on Pereira (part of the reason for that is because he’s finished a few of them before they could try it). Those who did go for takedowns were Santiago Ponzinibbio (who went 1-4), Niko Price (who went 0-2), Tristan Connelly (who went 0-6) and a very washed Diego Sanchez (who went 0-6). Ponznibbio has a takedown accuracy of just 32 percent. Tristan Connelly’s was just 14 percent. Given this data, Pereira does not deserve to be considered an excellent takedown defender.
Against Hernandez he’ll meet someone with a 49 percent takedown accuracy (fourth in the division) who completes 6.62 takedowns per 15 minutes. If and when they hit the ground, Pereira will then have to contend with Hernandez’s 3.02 submissions attempts per 15 minutes (first in the division).
Pereira has good submission defense and has only been submitted once. However, I’m sure his defense is not as good as Rodolfo Vieira’s and we saw what Hernandez did to him.
Pereira’s best chance in this fight is landing something crazy on the feet. But if he misses (which is the most likely outcome) he’ll be in prime position for being taken down.
Given all this, I’m pretty confident that Hernandez makes good on his favorite status in this fight. His moneyline of -130 is very appealing to a cautious better like myself. Hernandez via submission at +165 doesn’t feel high enough to me to warrant moving off of the moneyline (Hernandez has a reach advantage and is a threat to win this by ground and pound, too).
The total rounds number has been set at 2.5 with +110 on the over and -140 on the under. I think the under has to be tempting here, especially if you think Pereira can catch Hernandez cold and get a knockout (I don’t).
Ultimately, I think the best bet is to just go with Hernandez to get the win (however and whenever it comes). If you like the moneyline, be patient. His line has grown from -170 and could go higher by the time we get to fight night.
Best bet: Anthony Hernandez moneyline -130
Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images
Rob Font (+315) vs. Kyler Phillips (-425)
After serving a six-month suspension for ostarine (which cost him a fight with Raphael Assuncao) Kyler Phillips returned to action last summer and beat Raoni Barcelos. He followed that up with a unanimous decision over Pedro Munhoz. Despite Munhoz’s age, that win has put Phillips on a path to potential contendership at 135 pounds. He’s ranked twelfth currently and a win over Rob Font would see him crack the Top 10.
While Phillips has been rising, Font has been sliding. He’s 1-4 in his last five with losses to ultra-tough opponents (Deiveson Figueiredo, Cory Sandhagen, Marlon Vera and Jose Aldo). All those losses went to a decision. His lone win during that run was a flashy technical knockout over Adrian Yanez (see it here).
The striking stats between these two are eerily similar. Font’s significant strikes landed per minute are 5.53, his striking accuracy is 45 percent, his sig. strikes absorbed per minute are 3.65 and his defense is 56 percent. Phillips’ numbers across those stats are 5.72, 45 percent, 3.38 and 61 percent. They also have almost the same reach.
So I think we’re due for a stalemate in striking here, despite their striking styles being quite different from each other. Font is a classic boxer whereas Phillips is more of an MMA striker. Phillips will spend upwards of 20 percent of his strikes on leg kicks. Font will go three rounds without throwing a single leg kick.
I think that could be a big deal in this fight. Phillips has no reason to fear the takedown from font (he attempts 0.89 per 15 mins and has 35 percent accuracy), so he will have lots of opportunities to chew up that lead leg.
Font, on the other hand, should fear takedowns from Phillips. He lands 2.41 per 15 minutes and has a 46 percent accuracy. He used his takedowns to get a quality win over Song Yadong (going 3-5) in 2021.
With his more diverse striking and wrestling threat, I’m pretty confident in Phillips in this match-up. The moneyline on Phillips is not very appealing. So I’m looking mostly at bets that correlate with this fight going the distance (and Phillips getting a decision). Both Font and Phillips go the distance against tough opposition (and I think Font is still a tough opponent for Phillips despite his odds).
Fight to go the distance is -185. Phillips to win by decision is -135. And over 2.5 rounds is -230. Phillips to win by unanimous decision is -105. I really like Phillips in this match-up, so I’ll take the best price on offer here.
Best bet: Kyler Phillips to win by unanimous decision (-105)
Photo by Amy Kaplan/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Charles Johnson (-220) vs. Sumudaerji (+180)
Sumudaerji is on a two-fight losing streak. He lost to Tim Elliott, by submission, in December (see it here). Elliott came in on very short notice for that one. Prior to that Sumudaerji lost an epic back and forth battle with Matt Schnell. He seemed to have Schnell dead to rights in that bout, teeing off with haymakers, but then got hurt himself and choked out cold (see it here).
Sumudaerji’s other loss in UFC is a submission, too, to Louis Smolka in his debut. His wins in the promotion have come over Andre Soukhamthath, Malcolm Gordon and Zarrukh Adashev.
Charles Johnson is on a nice little run. He KO’d Joshua Van with an uppercut in July. Before that he beat Jake Hadley and Azat Maksum, both by decision. Prior to these three wins he was 2-4 in UFC.
Johnson’s losses come when he can’t stay on his feet. When he’s able to stand he does a good job of putting together a patient striking display for the judges. Sumudaerji (0.29 takedown attempts per 15 minutes) is likely to give him the stand-up fight he’d prefer in this bout.
The overall striking stats lean slightly in Sumudaerji’s favor, particularly when you look at sig. strikes absorbed per 15 mins (2.73 vs. 3.45). But when you look at recent fights, Johnson has been much better than that. Against Van, Johnson had a +55 total strike differential. Against Hadley it was +58.
In his decision win over Adashev, Sumudaerji was out-struck 127 to 123.
I’m forecasting Johnson to be the busier striker here and, if Sumudaerji fights as recklessly as he has in the past, Johnson could get the finish here.
I like the point spread in this fight, feeling like Johnson could win this 30-27 across the board (or by stoppage). Johnson to win by KO/TKO is +700, in case you’re feeling especially bold on his chances.
Best bet: Charles Johnson -305 (-105)
Photo by Richard Sellers/PA Images via Getty Images
Jake Hadley (?) vs. Cameron Smotherman (?)
I think Jake Hadley dodged a bullet here. I was very confident in Brady Hiestand in this match-up. However, while writing, I learned that Hiestand is out and has been replaced by Cameron Smotherman.
After back-to-back losses to Cody Durden and Charles Johnson, Hadley moved up to Bantamweight to fight Caolan Loughran in July. He missed weight by a pound for that fight, but was able to get the unanimous decision win.
Smotherman was KO’d by Charalampos Grigoriou on the Contender Series last year. Since then he’s gone 3-0 with Fury FC.
Avoid this one. Hadley is not to be trusted and there’s just not enough known about Smotherman at this level.
Best bet: Abstain!
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Darren Elkins (+105) vs. Daniel Pineda (-125)
We have two vets slated to open the main card for us on Saturday. Darren Elkins will be competing in his 29th UFC fight. Daniel Pineda has only had 12 fights with the promotion, but he debuted back at UFC on FX 1: Guillard vs. Miller in 2012. He submitted Pat Schilling on that night (a night where Josh Neer and Pat Barry also got wins and a young man named Khabib Nurmagomedov made his Octagon debut).
Elkins is coming off a submission win over TJ Brown over a year ago. Pineda lost to Nathaniel Wood by unanimous decision at UFC 304 in July. Prior to that he lost a Fight of the Night to Alex Caceres.
Elkins is 40-years-old and Pineda is 39.
Pineda took a lot of punishment in the Wood fight, but was able to hang in there and offer up some tricky jiu jitsu to stifle Wood from getting the finish. Pineda’s best weapon at this point in his career is his grappling. I don’t think he’ll be able to finish Elkins like that, though. Elkins has only been submitted one time in his long career. That was to Charles Oliveira (an armbar in the first minute of their fight in 2010).
Elkins wins with pressure. But it’s getting harder and harder for him to deliver that style of fighting. Against a fellow elder statesman, he might be able to do it, though. He will have a submission threat to offer Pineda in this fight, too, and I somewhat like his chances of getting a finish here more than I like Pineda’s. Elkins has two RNC wins in the last four years and Pineda has six submission losses on his record.
I like the underdog here and the point spread. Elkins +3.5 is -150. However, I also think this fight is most likely to go the distance, something the oddsmakers don’t agree with. You can get Fight to go the Distance at +165. That’s pretty good for two grizzled vets who might be too tough to finish and too tired to get the finish.
Ultimately I’ll play it safe(r) and go with Elkins plus the points.
Best bet: Darren Elkins +3.5 (-150)
UFC Vegas 99 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Matheus Nicolau (+140) vs. Asu Almabayev (-170)
This fight is an example of how quickly your fortunes can change in UFC. Matheus Nicolau headlined an APEX show in April and was promptly KO’d by an Alex Perez right hook (see it here). His punishment for that? A prelim booking with a very tough rising talent.
Asu Almabayev was able to coast past Jose Johnson last time out. That decision win, which saw him go 6-11 on takedowns and enjoy over 11 minutes of control time, moved him to 3-0 in UFC.
This is a great opportunity for us to see if the 30-year-old Kazakh (who hasn’t lost since 2017) is capable of mounting a late career charge in UFC. He’s a favorite against Nicolau, but only slightly. Against Johnson he was a -560 favorite and he was a -600 favorite against CJ Vergara before that.
Almabayev is a takedown spammer. He lands almost seven of them per 15 minutes and has a 56 percent accuracy.
Nicolau’s takedown defense is 93 percent. But, that’s because he held Tim Elliott to 1 of 10 takedowns. He’s barely had to deal with a takedown attempt outside of that fight.
If Nicolau is able to stay standing, his striking could cause Almabayev some problems. If he’s able to land some strikes early, those takedown attempts could become quite slow and telegraphed from a 30-year-old who is new to this level of competition.
I think this is a very close fight to call. I’m leaning towards Almabayev here, but if I had to bet on something I would just go for the over. I like that since I believe Almabayev will be able to take Nicolau down a lot, but I don’t see a finish for him there.
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-298)
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Brad Katona (+215) vs. Jean Matsumoto (-265)
Brad Katona was a -600 favorite in his last fight. And he lived up to those odds, smothering Jesse Butler for a no nonsense (and no entertainment) win. That victory saw him rebound from a unanimous decision loss to Garret Armfield in January.
Jean Matsumoto is the A-side in this match-up and perhaps proof that the UFC wants to push Contender grads over (and maybe at the expense of) TUF alums. Matsumoto earned a contract with a unanimous decision win over Kasey Tanner on Contender Series last year. In April he won his UFC proper debut over Dan Argueta via guillotine. That win got him to 15-0 on his career.
These guys are similarly well-rounded. But, Matsumoto has more snap in his hands and more of a submission threat on the ground. Katona both strikes and grapples for points, not finishes. Katona has been able to use that gameplan to win a lot of fights in the Octagon, but I think Matsumoto is too bright a prospect to be snuffed out by him here.
Best bet: Jean Matusmoto moneyline (-250)
Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Joselyne Edwards (-250) vs. Tamires Vidal (+205)
Both these fighters have struggled to fight with much intensity in their UFC careers to date. Joselyne Edwards dropped a boring bout to Ailin Perez, despite them having lots of bad blood and Edwards trying to get away with a head butt. Tamires Vidal waved off her fight with Melissa Gatto after a punch hit her in the breast (see it here).
I’m not expecting a good fight here, or a finish.
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-360)
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Jessica Penne (+140) vs. Elise Reed (-170)
Jessica Penne felt like a can’t-miss prospect when she came off Invicta and impressed in TUF before earning a title shot against Joanna Jedrzejczyk in 2015. After being brutalized by a classic Joanna Violence performance, things have just not happened for Penne. In the 10 years since that fight she’s fought six times. That’s mostly down to a nightmare with USADA. In 2021, she appeared back on track, getting wins over Lupita Godinez and Karolina Kowalkiewicz (see it here). However, since then she’s lost to both Emily Ducote and Tabatha Ricci (see it here).
She’s 41 and this is her eighth fight since leaving TUF house. We might be seeing her fighting out her contract here.
Elise Reed is 3-4 in UFC and coming off a submission loss to Lupita Godinez. She has also been submitted by Loma Lookboonmee (Lookboonmee’s only career submission) and been TKO’d by Sam Hughes and Sijara Eubanks.
Penne has good grappling, so she might be able to cause the upset here. She also has a four-inch reach advantage. The over (2.5 rounds) is the safe bet (-280), but I like the offer of plus money on Penne.
Best bet: Jessica Penne money line (+150)
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Melissa Martinez (-130) vs. Alice Ardelean (+110)
Alice Ardelean was signed as a short notice replacement to face Shaunna Bannon at UFC 304, a fight she won via split decision.
Melissa Martinez hasn’t fought since 2022 (when she beat Elise Reed). That’s her only UFC appearance since moving over from Combate (where she was Strawweight champ). She’s a short notice replacement for Rayanna Amanda in this bout.
Martinez has way more upside than the 32-year-old Ardelean. She should be good enough to win this fight, even with the two-year lay-off.
Best bet: Melissa Martinez moneyline (-130)
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Austen Lane (+350) vs. Robelis Despaigne (-500)
I don’t Sean Shelby likes Austen Lane. Last time out her was served up to devastating power puncher Jhonata Diniz, which lead to a second round KO (see it here). Before that he was TKO’d by Justin Tafa. Lane was also famously picked to give Greg Hardy a KO win back on Contender Series in 2018 (see it here).
Robelis Despaigne, who represented Cuba in Taekwondo at the 2012 Olympics, has incredible power in his hands, as he showed with his 18-second destruction of Josh Parisian in his UFC debut (see it here). That took him to 5-0 in MMA with his other wins, including a four-second knockout, a three-second knockout and a 12-second knockout. At UFC St. Louis, he was matched with Waldo Cortes-Acosta and then he preceded to stink up the joint.
Cortes-Acosta clowned him by landing big shots on the feet and then taking him down and laying on him for however long he wanted. This revealed that Despaigne had zero ground fighting acumen and resulted in ire from Dana White, who called the fight one of the worst he’d seen.
Lane has a track record of letting dangerous strikers tee off on him ... he probably does the same thing here.
Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (-280)
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
UFC Vegas 99 Long Shots
Here’s a couple of things that look interesting (on Betonline) for this Saturday’s UFC Vegas 99 card ...
Darren Elkins vs. Daniel Pineda to be won by Split or Majority Decision - Yes (+650)
I think this is a close fight and that this is very long odds for a split decision. We had four splits last weekend in the APEX. These two could sprawl and brawl for 15 minutes and give the judges a hard time sorting out who won all the exchanges.
Charles Johnson to beat Sumudaerji via KO/TKO/DQ (+700)
I think Charles Johnson is on the verge of a coming out party here. He’s been steadily improving this year and I think he could have a big night against Sumudaerji. I think he’ll hurt Sumudaerji and trigger the Tibetan’s all-or-nothing response. If Sumudaerji gets wild, hunting for a finish, Johnson could put him to sleep.
Michel Pereira vs. Anthony Hernandez - Point to be Deducted - Yes (+2000)
The referee group-think has to be shifting towards being more punitive, right? This year we’ve seen so many fouls go unchecked (and fights be altered because of them). We simply must be getting to a tipping point where refs actually start deducting points for fence grabs and eye pokes. In this bout, maybe we’ll see that come into affect — perhaps to punish Pereira for an illegal backflip or maybe strikes to the back of the head.
Got something better than those? Well, don’t be stingy. Hit us with them in the comments.
Remember that Boxebet will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 99 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 7 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 99: “Pereira vs. Hernandez” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
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